UPDATED: John Carney Should be running for Congress now…today…
Mike Castle has given him plenty of ammunition – but it is still going to take a lot of money and ground game to defeat this long serving incumbent.
Carney gains nothing by staying on the sidelines.
UPDATE: A commenter asks, “Why Carney, why not Scott Spencer?”
See the graph below. I put Carney slightly below, but in the same quadrant as my dream candidate. Where would you put Spencer?
Tags: John Carney
Beating a lucid and healthy Mike Castle will require an attack dog with a mastery of populist and progressive argumentation. I don’t see Carney being that attack dog.
Anon — is there someone who could run who might be that attack dog?
Probably not, the Delaware Way has neutered everybody. All the Dem players are wedded to the “Be a nice guy, walk down the middle, and wait your turn” approach.
… and when I say attack dog, I don’t mean foaming at the mouth. What beats Castle is firmly and persistently calling him out over his specific votes, over and over again, until it punches through the media blackout on Castle’s negatives. Coupled with an “out-of-touch” campaign against Castle, which would be amplified if Castle ducks debates.
Come to think of it, that approach could be the best primary shot against Carper too.
I don’t think Dems have anyone willing or able to run that plan, though.
An attack dog would lose to Castle as badly as Bob Maxwell lost to Tommy Evans in 1980. Maxwell was a good candidate, but his campaign focused heavily on attacks on an incumbent with a profile similar to Castle’s – from business/moderate/upstate GOP wing, impairing Carter agenda. Strategy looked good in the consultant’s proposal, but failed. Castle has been in office more or less continuously for 40 years. People know and generally like him.
They can be persuaded to vote against Castle, but the playbook was written by Biden in ’72 and updated by Carper in ’00.
why does is have to be a party faithful? Markell was …. and i really hate to say it because of its negative moose killing meaning… a maverick. True, he WAS on office holder but he was also kind of an outside man. you STILL have Ruth Ann the Troll talking about mended fences.
In any case someone doesn’t need the approval or endorsement of the Delaware Way DINO party if they know how to play the grass roots game.
Markell a maverick? He’s straight out of the Chamber of Commerce catalog.
i was referring to his “stepping out of line by running against Carney” and the state party giving money to Carney to beat Markell…. money that DIDNT go to down state, down ticket candidates who lost to REPUBLICANS! …. someone with a sac. thats all i ask.
Understood on the party money. That stunk. But Markell’s “stepping out of line” is in a long tradition of millionaires butting in line, not some indicia of programmatic desirability.
Having a million bucks to lend yourself as seed money can be mistaken for fortitude in some quarters.
I get what anon means — a candidate who will persistently critique Castle for what he has in common with BushCo. And linking that to some of the economic pain we’re feeling now. Castle get too much of a pass largely because no one has really taken on his record in light of how much bluer the state has gotten.
If this sounds familiar, I made a similar case for a serious critique from the left as the way to highlight the phoniness of John McCain’s “moderateness”. Castle isn’t all that moderate. He will occasionally break ranks with the GOP Borg, but that is not what makes a moderate.
Why couldn’t Scott Spencer be that candidate?
I don’t know the guy from Adam and aren’t trying to puff him up. But I’m really curious why you’re fixated on Carney, a guy who’s definitely NOT a gutfighter, when there’s someone else who’s already thrown his hat into the ring and whose initials aren’t KHN.
Thankfully, Mike Miller is running for the Cape Henlopen school board this time around. If he finally wins something, that may take him out of the running for Congress and allow everyone in Sussex to breathe a sigh of relief.
And when Castle broke with the GOP-Borg, it was always a capture and release vote that didn’t matter. He marches in lockstep, else why would he have voted against his consitutents and the recovery bill?
Castle is NO MODERATE!
John Carney for Congress in 2010!
One of Carney’s biggest challenges – as it was last year – is going to be breaking through his Wall of Shyness. Especially compared to Castle, he’s a wallflower.
“a capture and release vote”
Excellent imagery.
Anon 11:06,
I don’t think Delaware voters can accept people running for Congress as their first elected office.
See the graph.
I think (and hope) that Carney has been burned by the “Delaware way” enough to decide to step outside of it. If Carney becomes more aggressive, I think he’ll win.
‘Bulo has tried to intake what Manifold said, but he’s choking on it.
Delaware in 1980 was made to order for Rockefeller Republicans. It no longer is. Times do change in 30 years, and there is no longer a Bill Frank or even a Celia Cohen to lend mainstream support to the Entitled Class of anointed leaders. AKA the ‘noblesse oblige’ school that included the first George Bush, Pierre duPont and, yes, Mike Castle.
The Beast Who Slumbers would much prefer the kind of pit bull candidate anon envisions. However, a credible pit bull candidate would have to emerge, emphasis on ‘credible’. Maybe Spencer’s that guy, ‘bulo doesn’t know him either.
Failing that, ‘bulo is OK w/Carney as long as he publicly promises not to have surgery permanently attaching himself to the ‘blue dog caucus’. And we’ll just have to play the role of pit bulls for him & let him speak his usual BLANDishments.
BTW, the Beast Who Slumbers believes that there IS someone who can call Castle out on his record, and win. And he fits both anon’s criteria and Jason’s observation that he probably should have run for elective office. His name? Matt Denn. Think about it.
… and if he lost, he’d still be safe for another two years, so he wouldn’t really be risking anything. Plus he could come out of Congress in ’16 and make his run for governor. And that would open up the lieutenant governorship for Schwartzkopf, who could run for Congress once Denn’s done.
Bleeping brilliant, ‘Bulo…
His name? Matt Denn. Think about it.
Matt Denn is my dream date. I mean my dream candidate vs. Castle. He would have trounced him in this past election and I’m still a little angry about him not pulling the trigger.
anon wrote: “Bleeping brilliant, ‘Bulo…”
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Matt Denn would be an excellent choice. I think he would have a virtually free pass, since he’s not up for election but so would Carney.
But Carney would have to give up a cushy job for an uncertain future.
I’m sure that cushy job will be kept waiting for him.
I’d like to see kavips run.
You are all correct about Matt Denn’s qualities… but an insider running against Castle would earn the eternal hatred of the Delaware Way. That is not lost on Denn.
We know that Delaware was wired for the Greenville Gang in 1980. [Some would say it still is, only in a multiparty sense.] But it’s still true that angry is a hard sell, particularly against someone who’s personally liked. Biden beat Boggs and Carper beat Roth in the way that Castle would have to be beaten.
By subtly running against an Old Decrepit Guy Who Doesn’t Want To Be There Any More?
As Rex Harrison said, I think you’ve got it. Jason’s just started a thread that should be productive.