Get used to that headline. The 2010 general election is approximately 500 days away. Yes, that is a long time and anything can happen, but in this day and age, if a politician does have serious designs on running in an election that is sure to be hotly contested, there would be tell tale signs of those intentions. And the first and foremost is that candidate’s fundraising.
Mike Castle has only raised a relatively paltry $71,500 in the first quarter of 2009. Now, if he had designs on running for the Senate, he is sure to know that he will be facing either former Lt. Governor John Carney or Attorney General Beau Biden, either of whom will be able to raise significant amounts of money for the race, with the added fundraising star power of Vice President Joe Biden if the younger Biden is the candidate.
To put the $71,500 in perspective, if he averages that amount for the rest of the year, he will have only raised $858,000 for 2009. And since a contested election against Carney or Biden will require three months if not more of advertising in the expensive Philadelphia media market, you can see the problem.
It may be sufficient for a reelection campaign to the House if he faces yet another sacrificial lamb. But given the rumors that Carney may also consider running for the House, Castle’s fundraising makes you think he is retiring altogether. Indeed, by the third quarter in 2007, Castle had raised $227,675 and had $1.4 million cash on hand, for only a House reelect where he was not seriously challenged.