8. Sixth Representative District-Thomas Kovach
‘Bulo doesn’t rate this race higher b/c, since defeating Mike Migliore in the special election to replace Diana McWilliams, Kovach has been more of a Dave Ennis-moderate than Wayne Smith- whacko or Greg Lavelle-blowhard. He is voting his Bellefonte/Claymont area district so far. He’s also signed onto some D-sponsored feel-good legislation. He has stayed away from the ideologues’ agenda. He has a solid, if narrow, base of support in his district through the Scouts, Immaculate Heart of Mary, and community service. The District also has experience voting for moderate Republicans, former Rep. Dave Ennis and former State Senator Dallas Winslow among them.
However, he is certainly beatable. The D’s have a pretty active committee in the 6th, and some good potential candidates. They will (or, at least, should) no longer be under the stigma caused by the Special Election where constituents thought that some kind of deal had been cut before the General Election. The District has a strong Democratic registration edge which has gotten significantly stronger in the past 8 years or so, and generally votes that way. Here are the District’s registration numbers and percentages as of April 1, 2009:
D R I Total
7579 4836 4101 16,516
% 45.9 29.3 24.8
While those numbers would appear to to make this a slam-dunk for the D’s, those numbers are not that much different than what they were for the Special Election in December.
And one mustn’t underestimate Kovach’s organization. He won the Special Election on merit, and the D’s will not merely be able to win a ‘statistical’ victory based on registration figures. They need a good candidate and a solidly-executed campaign plan. Kovach also won primarily b/c D’s did not feel motivated to vote, something that must be rectified in 2010.
El Somnambulo believes that, in order to win, the Party should ignore the conventional wisdom that primaries are inherently a bad thing, and instead encourage interested D’s to run in a primary. There were a whole bunch of candidates who spoke to the committee on behalf of their candidacy for the Special Election, several outstanding ones. But, the decision to choose Mike Migliore was pretty much wired, as Rep. McWilliams supported him, and the committee was full of her followers. Keep in mind that the Party, and in this case the District Committee, selects the nominee for a Special Election, and there cannot be a primary. However, the process did leave some would-be candidates feeling disenfranchised, and the campaign had to generate its own momentum.
By encouraging an open primary, several qualified candidates can appeal directly to the Democratic voters. This means (‘bulo donning his Captain Obvious attire) that someone will actually have won the primary election before facing all the voters in November. He/she will have developed momentum by already building an effective and battle-tested campaign organization, and they will have the added name recognition from having engaged the voters earlier.
The oft-stated fear that primaries divide ignores two basic points: (a) The lack of a primary, and/or the perceived unfairness of the selection process for the Special had the exact same effect; and (b) Jack Markell, sure didn’t hurt him none.
The Party cannot afford even the appearance of trying to dictate the results of this one. To do so would be to repeat the mistake that most likely cost the D’s this seat last December.
Invite everyone to participate, and may the best candidate win.