21st Representative District-Mike Ramone
“This ain’t a purchase, it’s a rental.” Thus sayeth Tom Waits, El Somnambulo’s favorite philosopher.
And thus sayeth the Beast Who Slumbers about Mike Ramone’s 2008 win in the 21st. Granted, it’s a rental with an option to buy, but the warranty on returning the product to some dusty warehouse has not expired. Please allow ‘bulo to explain his tortured analogy before it becomes torture for you, if it hasn’t already.
Three-time loser Ramone (2000 County Council President/2002 & 2006 challenges to Sen. Dave Sokola) finally got the electoral equivalent of Johnny LaRue’s crane shot (if you get that obscure SCTV reference , ‘bulo will buy you a beer) in 2008. Beloved Pam Maier retires to move back to her native state of Oklahoma where her husband has gotten a job and, unlike other legislators in similar positions, really goes out of her way to campaign on behalf of Ramone. While popularity isn’t generally transferable, she gives Ramone a likability rub he hasn’t ever achieved on his own. This is a one-time-only thing. Ramone is on his own in 2010, and ‘bulo expects Ramone’s “inner smarm” to resurface.
By itself, even this might not have been enough for Ramone to win, especially in a Democratic year. However, the campaign of his opponent, Pat Creedon, self-destructed under a cloud of in-fighting, indecision and incompetence. Which is too bad, as Creedon herself was a hard-working and credible candidate.
Unfortunately, her husband, John Czerwinski (head of the Plumbers/Pipefitters local/former R challenger to Sen. Tom Sharp) was a disaster as campaign manager. People can criticize the State Democratic Party all they want, but they have had their bleep together when it comes to developing and executing winning legislative campaign plans. Czerwinski stubbornly insisted he was gonna do things his way, Creedon was indecisive as she got caught in the middle, and a coherent message never emerged. There was far too much dithering and arguing back and forth. A blueprint for electoral disaster, carried out with brutal efficiency.
Creedon’s business, Creedon Controls, suffered business setbacks and ultimately went under. This took Mike Ramone’s own well-documented deadbeat business history off the table, something that Dave Sokola had used to devastating effect in 2006.
It was the perfect storm, and the voters in the 21st District gave Ramone a 2-year trial period.
Which brings us to the numbers. Here are the current registration figures:
D R I Total
6058 4893 3904 14,855
40.8% 32.9% 26.3%
A nice, but not decisive D edge. So, let’s take a look at some individual races to get a better sense of things. It’s a mixed bag. In 2006, Ferris Wharton edged Beau Biden, 3508-3236, in the 21st. In the same year, Dave Sokola defeated Ramone in the 5 election districts in Ramone’s home Rep. District, the 21st, 1281-1062. Not good for Ramone.
However, Ramone’s 2008 margin of victory was very impressive, 5474 to Creedon’s 4454.
It was the only 2008 race in the 21st that bucked the D trend. Even (yikes!) Karen Weldin Stewart won the 21st by an overwhelming margin, 5500 to 3897.
As the numbers in the 21st continue to trend more Democratic, and as the Pam Maier rub wears off Ramone, this is a prime pickup opportunity.
IESHO, the D’s must find a different candidate here, not b/c Creedon wasn’t a good candidate, but b/c Czerwinski singlehandedly ruined her campaign and will do it again if given the chance (Memo to Czerwinski: This is not an election for Shop Steward). If she doesn’t dump him, she’s out.
There’s also a great chance for a true progressive to emerge here. The two principal senators for the area are Peterson and Sokola, and ‘bulo is sure that they can identify some grade-A prospects for this district. Candidate recruitment is essential here. Find someone who is motivated, give them all the help you can, and you’ll have a D win in the 21st in 2010.
The Beast Who Slumbers guarantees it. Uh, please be advised that this is not a money-back guarantee. Any attempt to collect will likely meet the same fate as befell Ramone’s creditors.
UPDATE: The countdown resumes on Monday with #6. Now, if you’ll excuse ‘bulo, he needs to gather some Music For the Masses for tom’w…