Unstable Isotope:
I think Specter’s switch makes Castle less likely to run for Senate. I do think Specter’s switch does make more party-flipping possible.
I agree on both counts. I say it is now 50-50 that one or both of Maine’s Senators will flip. I also agree that moderates will now find the GOP caucus in the Senate a rather lonely place for them. Thus, wouldn’t that make Mike Castle all the more hesitant to run? I think so.
Will Castle join Specter in switching sides?
I just cannot imagine it. It would be more of a devastating blow to the GOP if Castle switches than if Specter switches. Why? Because it completely destroys the Delaware Republican Party. There would be no recovery from losing Castle for Ross, Burris and Copeland. And Castle knows that. And that is why he won’t do it.