What Should (and Just May) Happen in Pennsylvania
Being out of work has its dubious perks. One of which is unfettered access to television. And that is how El Somnambulo came to watch Arlen Specter’s press conference today.
There was a particularly ghoulish and joyless tone to this event. Looking somewhere between feeble and gaunt, Specter called himself ‘full of vim, vigor and vitality.’ His weakening voice and pinched cheeks that looked like they’d just had charcoal black applied to them spoke volumes to the contrary. Forget about political last legs, this guy’s in his last lap. He makes Bill Roth in his final race look full of vim, vigor and vitality in contrast.
While paying the usual lip service to moderates like him having been deserted by the conservative bent of the Republican Party, he was open in admitting that his switch was also caused by his not being ‘willing to let the voters in a Republican primary be the judge and jury on my candidacy’.
He then pronounced himself ‘willing to take on all comers’ in the general election. Pardon ‘bulo if he missed something, but didn’t Specter leave out a step? Is he simply assuming that there will not be a Democratic primary, or is he thinking of ‘pulling a Lieberman’ if he loses in a primary battle?
After watching Specter, the Beast Who Slumbers has no doubt that a vigorous Democratic challenger beats Specter. Here are three who immediately come to mind:
Forgetting about the fact that Specter is a DINO (saur), there’s a very practical reason why Specter should not be the Democratic nominee. ‘Bulo does not believe that there’s any way that Specter can serve out another 6-year term. Fast Eddie Rendell is gone after 2010. Rethug District Atty. Patrick Meehan has a pretty good chance of being elected governor in 2010. Would you want a Rethug governor able to make even a temporary appointment to the Senate? Didn’t think so.
Tags: National Politics
In Pennsylvania, unlike Connecticut, a sore loser can’t run as an independent.
is rendell up against a term limit?
Yep. 2 terms and out.
I’d strike Fattah from the list. He finished 4th with 15 percent in ’07 Phila mayoral primary. Schwartz is a fighter, and Sestak would be a powerful candidate.
Okay, let me go out on a limb with my own personal brand of crazy…
What if Specter doesn’t run in 2010? He did look really, really ill today. What if he’s a man with nothing left to lose?
Too nuts?
Sorry, hate to burst your bubble, but part of the deal for Specter to switch teams was the Democratic Party agreeing to back him against any challengers in a primary. Also, most of the people who were planning a run have already backed out. So it looks like Specter will be the Democratic Party’s candidate for the Senate in 2010.
I’m not sure what you mean. He just wanted to spend his last two years in office as a Dem? I doubt it.
Specter is all about Specter. I agree with the Michael Steele about that. He must has gotten some assurance that Rendell would endorse and the state party (leadership) would fall into line re: a primary.
this is funny:
‘willing to let the voters in a Republican primary be the judge and jury on my candidacy’.
::Homer voice:: Stupid voters.
My bubble will hold until Celia Cohen tells me it is over.
He fully intends to run in 2010. He’s one of these guys who can’t stand to leave the clubby atmosphere of the Senate. That’s not to say that yet another health setback (‘bulo does not wish that on anyone) might force him to change his mind.
I am watching Hardball right now. And Michael Smerconish just raised an interesting possibility:
What if Pat Toomey is not the Rethug nominee? What if Tom Ridge is?
And yes, the DSCC and the state Dem Party has agreed not to support a primary challenger to Specter. But what if the unions support Sestak?
In my view, the Senate race in PA is now wide open.
Why wouldn’t Toomey be the nominee? The wingnuts who call the shots seem to love him.
Specter has lost more elections than Lincoln. After 2 terms as DA, in ’73 to Fitzpatrick [barf], in ’76 to John Heinz, in ’78 to Thornburgh. Goodness, he barely beat Pete Flaherty in ’80, on the worst Democratic day ever.
His political career may predate Frank Rizzo, Marc Howard and Billy Cunningham, but that means everyone knows his snarlin’. Like Rocky [Nelson] at the end of his career, he’s ticked off absolutely everyone several times during his career. An attractive, tenacious opponent – Sestak, Schwartz, even Torsella – could remind yellow-dog Democrats of his treatment of Anita Hill, his escort service for Roberts and Alito, his contortions on EFCA. Goodness, this reptile even voted against Elena Kagan.
Yes, Rendell [and his ethically challenged henchman, David L. Cohen] can call many big-dollar Democrats. But Pennsylvania Democrats have shown life lately. [Ask Mayors Marty Weinberg, Sam Katz, Tom Knox, Chaka Fattah and Bob Brady.]
The Pennsylvania political class follows conventional wisdom more doggedly than their Delaware cohorts [notice how few thought in 2001 that Rendell would beat Casey, or that Shapp would beat Casey Sr. in ’66], but if Specter’s post-switch polling is as weak as I suspect, a strong challenger will surface, and be a major factor.
John, all ‘bulo can say is, “You da man!”
Great analysis!
You are all missing a central political point, something I too missed until I interviewed The HILL’s White House correspondent Sam Youngman this afternoon:
White House press secretary Robert Gibbs said President Obama would throw his “full support” behind Arlen Specter.
When a reporter pressed Gibbs into whether that meant the President backing Specter in a Democratic primary, Gibbs said “Full support means full support”.
Politico.com reports Specter first tried to call Joe Biden to announce his decision this morning. But Specter couldn’t get through to Biden… Biden was in Texas… so Specter talked to President Obama first, just after 10:30 a.m., and finally talked to the Veep shortly before 11 a.m.
So any Democratic challenger would have the specter of knowing President Obama, Vice-President Biden, Governor Rendell, and God knows who else will come into Pennsylvania to campaign for Specter (Sorry, I couldn’t resist the Specter pun!).
That should clear the field unless Specter’s health takes a turn for the worse.
Of course, I suppose the Democratic establishment as reflected above would get some heartburn if the “post-switch” polling for Specter were “weak” as John M. above suggests!
But I suspect any polling would put Specter – as a Democrat – against Pat Toomey.
Allan Loudell
WDEL Radio & http://www.wdel.com
I think Specter switched because he really, really wanted to stay in the Senate. It was being reported on NPR that Specter’s pollster found that Specter can’t win as a Republican or as an Independent. Therefore, Specter flips. Specter seems to be all about Specter.
I find it an interesting possibility that a big name Republican could jump in the race. However, how many big names are itching to go into the impotent Senate minority now?
Biden may have been heavily involved in Specter’s decision to switch.
That’s true Allan. But that support is a year off, and indeed Sen. Specter’s actions between now and then may soften that support. For example, if Specter stands in the way of healthcare reform, or if he obstructs judicial nominations, I highly doubt that full support would be forthcoming.
So I suspect that is the Democrat’s carrot and stick in this situation, a way to keep Arlen in line when we need him. Sure, he can make principled stands on Dawn Johnsen and EFCA, but on signature Administration issues, he will have to toe the line to get full support.
Allan: Your point is interesting, but there’s a great irony, and possible flaw, in it. The Democratic establishment (Clinton) ran a top-down primary against the greatest grassroots campaign of all-time (Obama).
The idea, post-Obama candidacy, that the political insiders, now ironically including Obama, can dictate to Pennsylvania primary voters, who have largely been voting against Specter for years, just doesn’t compute for ‘bulo. And it’s likely to be many of the grassroots organizers trained by Obama who would opt for, and work for, a more progressive candidate like Sestak.
Joe Sestak didn’t wave any white flags tonight, and the Beast Who Slumbers thinks that grassroots politics would once again triumph over the insiders if a true primary was forthcoming.
Having said that, this is fascinating, and ‘bulo just lives for stuff like this.
Gibbs said earlier this evening that Obama would campaign and fundraise for Specter if he wants that which does not sound like a carrot and stick to me. I think that they made the deals they needed behind the scenes and it is full speed ahead.
The thing to remember about PA primary voters is that a decent number of them switched parties to vote for Obama. These are the Repub primary voters that Specter no longer has.
DL if I may-spent over a decade of my adult life in Phila.. Believe it or not this is not about politics. This is about an older man, who is ill, very, very ill, and has dedicated his entire life to public service, law, and the Senate. He wants to go out with his boots on, and the state of things they are, the Republicans can’t carry him again either strategically, or downright financially. I see you Democrats doing the honorable thing, and propping him up for his finale, not forcing Rendell to oppose him. The seat will be Rendell’s soon enough–and Pa. gets a real winner and worker. But until then an old, sick man will not ever have to worry about a career end. Nor the work it will take to see it happen. Sorry to be so flagrant, in light of these troublesome times. But I do think this was a humanitarian move you can be proud of. And I do hope you will exhibit the grace to accept him. Now Fumo is another story.
I agree with ‘Bulo that party insiders will not be able to stop a grassroots candidate from taking on Specter. Specter may feel very confident he can win a Democratic primary, but does he have the heart to fight one? It could be quite raucous, especially if Specter still opposes EFCA.
This brings up an interesting question. I listened to Chaffee on Maddow’s show, and he sounded quite bitter about the Republican party. He doesn’t think the Club for Growth should run primaries against current officeholders and that it was responsible for his loss to Whitehouse. I disagree totally with what he said. I think primaries are good (Clinton v. Obama was good for the party) and I think Chaffee lost because of George Bush and the Republican party as a whole.
El Somnambulo greatly admires Joanne’s empathy. She is truly a kind person. ‘Bulo wants to be Joanne Christian when he grows up.
But (and ‘bulo has nothing if not a big but), he couldn’t disagree with her more on this issue.
1. A US Senate seat is not an entitlement, it’s a public trust doled out by the voters 6 years at a time. The fact that Specter doesn’t want to leave the club is not, IESHO, justification to reelect him, although the voters may well disagree.
2. This patriarchal coming-together-of-the-tribe is the Pa. version of the Delaware Way, ‘Wait your turn’, ‘Arlen’s earned it’, etc. (Hmmm, wasn’t Biden a Carney supporter?) This idea that a certain self-selected group of leaders knows best is what the Beast Who Slumbers has always found so morally bankrupt b/c of the total self-serving and exclusionary nature of it.
3. “The seat will be Rendell’s soon enough-and Pa. gets a real winner and worker.” This suggests that Rendell and Specter have worked something out, which is anti-democratic on its face, or at least suggests that Gov. Rendell (D-Comcast) is Arlen’s inevitable successor in any event. Not to mention that hasn’t the public had enough of succession hijinx lately?
‘Bulo thinks that Pennsylvanians have gotten tired of Eddie’s stale act, and would embrace a candidacy like Joe Sestak’s over someone who is more of a Clinton D than Clinton him/herself.
Bulo, Bulo, Bulo,–let me change your name for just this entry to Bueller, Bueller, Bueller
1) No one knows better than me that a senate seat is not an entitlement.
2) The Delaware Way ain’t the Pennsylvania way. Do you know how hard it is for a Philadelphia politician to snag a state seat, especially the governorship?
3) I don’t suspect ANY deal between Spector and Rendell. I see the Make-A-Wish Foundation on the move here, knowing full well the party will never have to fully “grant” it. Need I be clearer? Is the sleep out of your eyes?
4) This former Phila. resident LOVED Rendell, and would have supported him as a VP pick. No nonsense, straight talker, cried foul on either side, returned property values for a time back to the city, threatened to privatize if unions fell down on delivery of city services, walked (albeit, and no doubt a photo op—but sent the message), with the garbage collectors to show ’em how it’s going to get done, and put the water back in the city pools. Having lived in and out of there from Rizzo to Street, this guy is Ready Eddy. No, I don’t think he’s stale. I think he may be crusty to a younger voter. But that would have to be a real younger voter, because the rest of us have seen what he can do and does. If Rendell can take Harrisburg AFTER Philadelphia, he has a heck of a lot of support. And I live in the next state, and how many counties away now–and would still vote for that man.
5) And I have said, and still stand by that Rendell delivered Pennsylvania to Obama. This is a winning strategy all around–not that I want to play illness to the strategy–but ALL will benefit, for once not just politically, but personally, and preferably. This will be a dance to watch. Now back to sleep Bulo, it’s not time to wake up yet–your’re just confused. There, there…..
Did ‘bulo say nice things about Joanne? He may have to ‘sleep’ on whether a retraction might be in order.
The Beast Who Slumbers thinks that Joanne is toying with her lumbering friend…
Good comment, Joanne.
Rendell was an excellent Philly mayor and has been a good gov. But I will never forgive him for stabbing Gore in the back after election night 2000. Rendell was one of those spineless “Gore should do the polite thing and concede” Democrats.
I don’t know why you say that “Rendell delivered Pennsylvania to Obama” when PA has been blue since 1992, even when it had popular repub gov Ridge.
I agree with ‘Bulo. Specter should be primaried and retired.
Oh Bulo- If you need to retract I understand. I was just hoping you would reorient, to the players, politics, and dynamic of that area—therefore a Bueller moment. If your comments were about Orrin Hatch, I would agree. But you guys would be getting a great candidate, no matter what timetable is in store for Rendell. Again, I cannot emphasize enough, for a Philadelphian to occupy Harrisburg is HUGE. That is a serious crossover appeal. Schwartz doesn’t have it–yet, and can be rather controversial to some old guard. She comes from quite a progressive base in the Mt. Airy section of Philadelphia, which back in the day really was a sociology project in the making of inclusion, tolerance, and equality. All of Pa. may not be ready for that. They would favor more a female Democrat like Lyn Abraham IMHO–and I have no idea if she’ll ever venture beyond DA.
Anyway, Bulo, this is about Arlen, and I can’t believe you would let a Republican, or DINO come between us. Sorry, if I hurt your feelings, but geez, you Dems will hurt yourself if you don’t get behind Rendell.
And anonone-Yes, Rendell delivered Pa. to Obama. The primary was a nailbiter, if you recall based on the western Pa. demographic of discomfort of voting for either a woman or a race. Rendell tipped the scale w/ his visits and endorsement. Obama’s remarks of “guns and locals” (not to be disputed here), may have been the kiss of death for further support, after that.
Enter the finale. Obama is up, and hands down, Rendell gets behind him unequivocally, and leads the charge for all Pennsylvanians to get behind him. Sure Biden puts in some visits, but Scranton folk knew “he ain’t from Scranton anymore”, and would have had no problem in that area, sending McCain on. The strong showing of Rendell, AND the crossover respect he has EARNED captured Penna. decisively that night. Obama couldn’t do it beyond the neighboring 7 counties, Biden tried and worked it, and even looked foolish at times, “being on errand” but in the end Rendell delivered it. That’s my take, and I’m sticking to it.
The more ‘bulo thinks he knows about Joanne, the less he realizes he knows. She is as hard to figure out as…’bulo himself. And ‘bulo has the excuse that he is lying half the time.
If Joanne would like Ed to know how she feels about him, the Beast Who Slumbers has a friend who has a friend.
Her fandom should at least be good for some free Comcast service, perhaps the entire TV, computer, phone package, with Eagles Live Postgame in High Def, so that she can admire America’s Governor, warts and all.
Time for El Somnambulo to duck now.
Rendell is unexceptional. His political model is similar to other Democratic governors – except that Rendell has less political will and a greater commitment to mediocrity. The way he rolled over for the gambling interests is and was revolting.
Or to borrow from a friend: “Agreed. I worked in Rendell’s administration and think it’s not a commitment to mediocrity, it’s a commitment to self wiithout pursuit of excellence. He’s like Bill Clinton in the first but Clinton liked excellence, saw it as a goal at times even if he was very willing to settle for less from himself. For Rendell, pursuit of excellence is for saps; he’ll use them if he can … I’d take Republican Richard Lugar over Rendell: different philosophy but not wholly for sale.”