The puzzle board is getting filled in. Carney is running for Congress, right now. O’Donnell is running for Senate, right now. Castle is playing coy, right now. Biden is serving in Iraq, right now. Protack comments at Delaware Liberal, right now. Copeland is blogging at Resolute Determination, right now. Where the puzzle pieces are set right now may not be where they are set in a few months. There are several balls in the air that, once they land, will alter our puzzle board.
First, the news of the day, is the release of a pretty great poll for Castle by the Republican polling firm Susquehanna Polling & Research that shows Castle crushing Biden 55% to 34%. I haven’t read the cross tabs yet to see if they are pushing leaners, or what the party breakdown of the sample was, but regardless, it is a poll designed to get Castle in the race, just as the Pennsylvania poll the same firm conducted is a poll to get Tom Ridge in the Pennsylvania Senate race. Thus, while the numbers are not good for us, I take them with a grain of salt at this moment. It is what it is.
Will this poll get Castle in the race? I have no idea. In his most recent comments to the Hill and to his press secretary, Celia Cohen, Castle has pretty much told us that he is not running for reelection to the House, and that his choice is between running for the Senate and retiring.
That is the big ball in the air right now. If Castle doesn’t run, I think it is a lock that Beau Biden runs for the Senate seat. But what is he waiting for? He must be getting call after call, especially after this most recent poll, to implore him to declare for the Senate. Indeed, given the way the national map is setting up for the GOP, Castle is the only Republican, the only Republican in America, that stands a chance of winning a Democratic seat in 2010. And in those calls from both former Presidents Bush, John McCain, John Cornyn, Rudy Giuliani, and other such GOP Illuminati, he most assuredly is getting promises of whatever he needs, including fund raising.
So what is he waiting for? Is the new Republican Party’s hostility towards supposed moderates weighing on him? Is he really scared of a Christine O’Donnell primary? Is he being sincere about being undecided?
This being Delaware, we have to consider the Delaware Way, and what kind of machinations are taking place behind the scenes right now. The Vice President is talking to Castle. Castle is talking to Carper. Carper is talking to Carney. Could it be that Castle is waiting on Biden? Surely, given these poll numbers, he is not fearful of facing Biden, is he? It will still be a competitive race, and that poll only shows the state of race right now with Biden being gone from the scene for a year. Indeed, when Biden returns from his service in Iraq and actually campaigns, coupled with a visit or two from Obama-Biden, we’ll see the race tighten up. But, if I was Castle, I have to be pretty confident in facing the junior Biden. So why is he waiting?
Here is my new theory: Biden is not going to run. And Castle is waiting to announce his decision out of respect for the Bidens, for he doesn’t want to embarrass Beau Biden by making it look like Biden was running away from a showdown with Castle. That poll shows what the service in Iraq has done to him: it has made Beau Biden a non-factor in Delaware politics. Instead, Biden will run for reelection to the Attorney General’s office to reestablish himself in Delaware politics, with a future in Congress or state government before him.
If that happens, does Carney move up to challenge Castle? Or does the Delaware Way take over, with a nobody facing Castle for the Senate and O’Donnell facing Carney?
UPDATE: I had forgotten that the new Senator elected in 2010 will only serve 4 years, until 2014. I think that clinches it. Castle is going to run for Senate, but only serve one term. Biden will run for reelection to AG, and then he will run for Senate in 2014.
The Delaware Way endures.