New Jersey GOP Primary Lesson for Delaware Dems
First the facts:
The GOP primary was bitterly contested. Conservative Christopher Christie,a former U.S. attorney under former President George W. Bush, bested his ultra-conservative opponent Steven Lonegan, the former mayor of Bogota, by a 55% to 42% margin.
I was not paying much attention to this race, so I consider myself a representative electoral sample for lesson drawing purposes. But what I saw was Christopher Christie utterly ignoring his primary opponent and running against Corzine from the get go.
That is the model that I’d like to see in more Delaware Democratic primaries where the candidates too often get caught up in sniping at each other. As a result, Republican incumbents get a free pass throughout the primary period, and the the winning Dem challenger ends up belittled and bloodied by the primary experience.
By mutually running against the ultimate opponent, the primary becomes a test of the candidate’s ability to attack Republican weaknesses and make a strong Democratic case for governance.
Bottom Line: If you are in a primary, think of the big picture. It worked for Christopher Christie.
Christie found out that he couldn’t just run against Corzine. He had to address the issues brought up by his opponent. They had a spirited primary, but they both remembered that Corzine was more of a problem than each other.
It worked for Obama as well. Although he did have to address Clinton too. At times it felt like who could distance themselves from Bush the most.
I’m kind of surprised Lonegan had a chance at all. He had a weird flat tax proposal – increase taxes on the poor and middle class and decrease taxes on the wealthy. I have to think that most Republicans aren’t that wealthy and didn’t want a tax increase.
Not true. There were terribly personal attacks on Lonegan, who they called Loseagain.
You are surprised that Lonegan had a chance because you are so far to the left. He not only gave a good fight in the primary but was tied or leading Corzine in the polls.
BTW the winner of the race was Rasmussen. They were a lot closer than the other polls and in the margin of error. That is bad news for Corzine.
I know a certain primary candidate who’s constantly ignored (or attempted to be) and winless. So, I guess it works.
I guess Mr. Protack could have, in turn, ignored his primary opponents, but then he would have disappeared altogether.
“BTW the winner of the race was Rasmussen. They were a lot closer than the other polls and in the margin of error. That is bad news for Corzine.”
Not necessarily. They might simply have a better system for measuring likely primary voters, which would mean nothing in a general.
Lonegan was 20 pts. down in the polls. I’m just surprised that Republicans admit they want to steal from the poor to give to the rich. Thanks for confirming that!
Ignoring your opponent worked for Paul Clark, too.
Thanks for the mention. I will point out the eventual result; Ting 3 to 1 loss and Lee 2 to 1 loss. There was no damage done to me but huge damage was done to the GOP.
Some people would rather control how the GOP loses rather than gamble on how to win.
Corzine will still be the favorite this fall.
You do have a great point though, the GOP candidate for Congress in 2010 only needs to run Jack Markell’s voice on their ads.
Mike Protack
There was no damage done to me but huge damage was done to the GOP.
So… this is why it needs to be rebuilt? You broke it?
The GOP candidate for Congress in 2010 can whistle Dixie out his anal sphincter for all the good it will do him. Carney by 40.
Since David sets so much stock by Rasmussen, here’s something to ponder from his final pre-primary New Jersey poll:
“New Jersey polls often show GOP candidates doing well in the spring, but the Democrat catches up as the November election approaches. A Republican has not won a statewide election in the state since 1997. “
Corzine is only down double digits. I would hardly call him the favorite.
Rasmussen called the election pretty much on the money. It was not close to a 20 point race.
As for the analysis, that is true, which means it is time for a change. The parties cycle in NJ. The Democrats went through a period in the 80″s and 90’s where they only won one gubernatorial race in 20 years. I believe the race will tighten when Corzine tosses 30 million dollars in the last two months. The state registration and recent history favors democrats. The economics, large number of independents, lack of democrat enthusiasm, and general discontent regarding corruption favors Republicans. The fact that the next budget has yet another series of tax increases could doom Corzine. If the GOP puts the money into NJ, they will win it.