Several weeks ago I wrote a post pointing out how, through closed primaries, the 21%ers will control who’s at the top of the Republican ticket. Frank Rich digs deeper, and, as bored as I am with Sarah Palin, Rich points out why we may be dealing with her in 2012. (Read the whole article.)
In the aftermath of her decision to drop out and cash in, Palin’s standing in the G.O.P. actually rose in the USA Today/Gallup poll. No less than 71 percent of Republicans said they would vote for her for president. That overwhelming majority isn’t just the “base” of the Republican Party that liberals and conservatives alike tend to ghettoize as a rump backwater minority. It is the party, or pretty much what remains of it in the Barack Obama era.
Time for a viable third party, because this much power in the hands of a small minority is dangerous. Just by running as a Republican, Palin is launched into the political arena denied to third party candidates. (And yes, I’ve always disliked the two party system. And yes, I seriously wanted the GOP to get its act together. So save your reprimands for someone else.)
That’s why Palin won’t go gently into the good night, much as some Republicans in Washington might wish. She is not just the party’s biggest star and most charismatic television performer; she is its only star and charismatic performer. Most important, she stands for a genuine movement: a dwindling white nonurban America that is aflame with grievances and awash in self-pity as the country hurtles into the 21st century and leaves it behind. Palin gives this movement a major party brand and political plausibility that its open-throated media auxiliary, exemplified by Glenn Beck, cannot.
Major party brand. She’ll ride the “R” brand for her own ends – reaping the benefits of “balanced reporting” from the MSM and automatically being included in every debate. Yet again, Palin will receive something she didn’t earn. And that instant elevation into the major leagues is nothing to laugh at. Palin (R) will start on an equal footing granted to a two party system. And unless something drastic happens, the 21%ers will call the shots and Palin should be the nominee.
It’s more likely that she will never get anywhere near the White House, and not just because of her own limitations. The Palinist “real America” is demographically doomed to keep shrinking. But the emotion it represents is disproportionately powerful for its numbers. It’s an anger that Palin enjoyed stoking during her “palling around with terrorists” crusade against Obama on the campaign trail. It’s an anger that’s curdled into self-martyrdom since Inauguration Day.
Let’s hope so.