Evening Castle Update
The Post’s Chris Cilzza has this to say about the GOP’s prospects of holding onto Castle’s seat in the house.
While Republicans will make real efforts in the seats of Kirk, Gerlach and Castle (if it comes open), the underlying demographics — not to mention that each of the seats is in a very expensive media market — argue against their ability to keep the seat under their control in 2010.
Well he got the the expensive media market thing wrong.
Elsewhere in the blogosphere – some wingnut who hates reality is mad at Castle for his Cap & Trade vote.
Now he says Castle is on his list and if Castle votes for Obama’s health plan…then oooh..boy of boy…he is really going to get it. Get what? I have no idea.
Tags: Mike Castle, Senate
Is the media market comment your attempt at being snarky? This is nothing of note, as anyone would agree if Castle does not run for the house seat the GOP will lose it. Not to mention Philadelphia is one of the most expensive media markets in the country. Not getting the point here…
Roth spent $4.5 million and lost but you have to wonder what he spent it on. Unless I’ve been watching the wrong shows – I don’t see Delaware politicians working the TV side like say…South Jersey pols.
I saw you making that comment here and on Daily Kos about Delaware not being in an expensive media market. The fact is, in a competitive race (which we have not seen in Delaware since the 2000 Roth-Carper race), it would expensive. A competitive race would require advertising on television, something Castle has never really had to do. And our television signals, at least in New Castle County where the majority of the state’s population lives, originate out of Philly, and that market is expensive.
A normal run of the mill uncompetitive race will not be expensive because the candidates can forgo the television ads and concentrate on radio spots and retail politics.
I stand corrected.
Clearly in a Castle v. Biden matchup the spending would be astronomical.
Correct.
Which means that Castle’s haul shows he is either retiring, or waiting to see what Biden does.
I have priced media buys for statewide races. The cost effective way television buy is cable time, not Philly broadcast stations. A campaign will buy broadcast if it wants to exploit a money advantage.
One broadcast ad is generally more effective than 200 cable ads. The cable universe is so spread out. Outside of Fox News, USA, TNT, TBS, FX, Univision, and ESPN there are not a lot of consistently concentrated viewership for people over 18. Half of the most popular programs are on Disney and Nick. SCiFi, BET, GAC, Spike, VH1, Lifetime, History, MTV, TLC,HLN, MSNBC, and CMT all have their popular programs but you have to buy the entire schedule to reach them or at least 12 hours of the day. That means a lot of your ads go into dead time. 200 ads are not worth much more than 20.
The truth is television is not the best way to campaign in a state like Delaware. Jason was on the right track when he dismissed the idea, just for the wrong expressed reason.
TV isn’t an effective way to campaign in Delaware? Than how do you explain the success of Gov. Markell? Ask anyone, the Governor didn’t pull away until he went on the air. TV matters… a lot
I don’t see Delaware politicians working the TV side like say…South Jersey pols.
Are you referring to right now? If you are, they have a tiny little race called the Governor’s race going on at this moment. They do their Governor thing on an odd-number year. Last time I checked, we don’t have much going on, save a special election, down south.
How much did he pull away by? He only picked up a few points. That could have been done by other means. He spent a lot of money to get a few points. I have no problem with well done TV ads. They do work, but are not an efficient way to achieve the result. If you have the money, spend it. We all know that Governor Markell would not have won if he depended upon TV. If all other factors are equal, the one who spends the most and reaches the voters more often wins. Markell had a better message. Carney had better name ID. The TV and mailers gave Markell equal name ID and communicated his message.
I do agree that TV helps. I disagree that it matters a lot. Markell would have been sitting around as treasurer if he believed that it was the key. That is why a lot of rich people don’t win. They think money wins campaigns. Money helps campaigns win. If you have no money, you can not get a message out. If you spend globs of money, you eventually just waste a lot on people who can’t vote for you.
How much would it take to beat Castle in a general election? A lot of money would be necessary to get up to his name ID. Would it take as much for him? No. Oddly enough beating him in a primary would be easier because his negatives are higher among Republicans than Democrats.
Speaking of negatives, how do liberals defend Obama’s shafting of minorities?
http://delawarerepublican.wordpress.com/2009/07/14/obama-has-left…ties-to-wither/
Mike Protack
As usual, David doesn’t know what he’s talking about. Actually, Jack won with a combination of television advertising (both broadcast and cable) and the best ground game this state has seen in years. We had every ED covered, especially down here in LSD – Carney did not. Jack actually carried Sussex County. In Uncle Thurm’s RD (35), Jack only lost by 51 votes – he should have lost that by 300+, especially since Pat Ewing and her gang were actively working for John.