Earlier this week we learned that Mike Castle raised around $125,000 during the last quarter, with only $14,000 of that amount coming from individual contributions and the balance coming from PACs and other political committees. We have remarked that these are hardly encouraging numbers for a man who plans to run for the Senate. Indeed, they are hardly good numbers for an incumbent looking to keep his job. And today we learn that John Carney, his possible Democratic challenger for reelection to the House, has outraised him in every way.
John Carney has reported raising $262,013 for the quarter, with $185,000 of that amount coming from individual contributions, the majority of which came from Delaware.
We also learn something interesting. Mike Castle donated $15,000 to the state GOP during the last quarter. The number strikes me as being nearly equal to the amount of his individual contributions. Perhaps Mike knows he is retiring and feels guilty about taking people’s money without putting it to use, so he donates it to the state party.
Here is my thoughts on the state of the Long Tease:
Mike Castle does not want to campaign for anything. He wants to retire. He will run for the Senate if he is given a coronation. And he will serve for four years, the remainder of Biden’s term, and then he is done, and Beau Biden can have “his turn.”
But if he has to campaign, in a competitive race against Beau Biden, where he will have to raise ten times the money he has raised so far, he won’t. So Mike Castle is waiting for Beau Biden to make up his mind. And Beau Biden cannot announce his intentions until September, when his tour of duty in Iraq ends.
We have been all concentrating on what Mike will do, when the real question is what Beau will do. And here is my nightmare scenario:
Beau decides to complete his AG term and run for reelection there. Castle announces a run for the Senate. Carney is running for the House. The Delaware Way is pleased. Castle doesn’t vigorously campaign against O’Whackjob. O’Whackjob wins the primary and then faces no serious Democratic opposition.