In Which We See a Castle vs Biden Senate Race Becomes the CW
Tom Schaller over at Five Thirty Eight takes a long look at the possibility of a Republican taking the Senate seat previously held by Barack Obama. He cites an article written over at the Rothenberg Political Report notes that a seat held by someone who has gone to the White House (either President or VP) has flipped 50% of the time, but since the numbers involved are pretty small it is hard to know what that means. But before he gets to looking at the landscape of the Senate race in IL, he stops in Delaware first:
Let’s start with Delaware. As Gonzales points out, the only real possibility for a Republican winning there is if the state’s at-large congressman, Mike Castle, decides to risk his House seat to take on Vice President Biden’s son and current attorney general, Beau. But even that would be a tough challenge for Castle, because the young Biden will have not only the family name and the White House to bank on, but he will be a returning Iraq vet. If Castle runs, whatever happens you’d have to give him props for having the guts to take on the Bidens.
Am I the only one who is tired of hearing this story? Castle hasn’t decided on anything, and if Beau is to be in play here, the thing he needs to decide first is that he is going all in on the family business. A decision that it is nowhere clear to me (or some others I’ve spoken to) that he has made. Nor does this take into account that the political landscape here frequently is Castle vs Biden, if only by proxy. But I think that the thing that makes me really tired of hearing this over and over is the astonishing lack of any other names in the ring for this Senate seat for Delaware. I suspect the lack of other names is both about “whose turn is it now” AND that there may not be anyone beyond Beau who could credibly run for this seat.
There is nothing here that advances the story, and it is interesting that for one of the few Senate seats a R could win in 2010 that we’ve been stuck with the same narrative for so long.
Tags: Beau Biden, Mike Castle, U.S. Senate
I’ve personally been wondering for a while who the Democratic Party could get to run if Beau decides he would rather wait until he has something more than a name. There are a lot of people that party loyalists like, but who has the name appeal to fight a Mike Castle (should he run)?
1) Beau is running for the Senate.
2) Castle is not.
Take that to the bank.
As for this:
If Castle runs, whatever happens you’d have to give him props for having the guts to take on the Bidens.
LOL! Castle and “guts” in the same sentence!!
JimD… if Beau Biden does not run, Carney will simply move up. And then Coons will run for Congress. I think that is the plan here. The rumors last week that Coons was stepping down to join the Obama Administration were based on Clark meeting with Coons a lot and learning about what projects were underway. Well, I think Clark is being prepped for a Coons candidacy, during which Clark will be running the county (God help us).
On August 29, Mike Castle shall eat of the Watermelon of Doom.
At this point, I think there is only a 40% chance that Castle runs. But I also think there is only a 20% chance that Beau Biden runs. The non-CW will win. The national story is all speculation with no information or actual knowledge.
I think Castle vs. Biden is going to be the CW until Castle makes a decision. If Castle decides to run, I think the Democratic field will be extremely narrow. If he decides to retire than it’s anybody’s guess. I think a Castle retirement actually makes it more likely that Biden will run but we will see! Castle has been dragging this out long enough, he needs to make a decision. I don’t think Castle is holding any townhalls this August except by phone (someone correct me if I’m wrong – I’d love an opportunity to attend one). Is that a sign that Castle isn’t running?
I’ve actually, in all honesty, started to feel bad for Castle. He’s no where near as moderate as he seems to think he is, but he’s still way too moderate for the Republican party. He was the first to be screamed at during a town hall meeting after all. He also seems very tired. He’s served many years for both Delaware and the Republican party, and Delaware doesn’t really want him back and the Republican party doesn’t deserve to have anyone who doesn’t foam at the mouth at this moment. If Coons does run for the House, does he really have any appeal outside of NCC? For that matter, how much appeal does he have in NCC?
is CW ‘conventional wisdom’?
Yep, CW = conventional wisdom and is almost always wrong.
From below the canal: Chris who? Oh, the short bald guy?
DrafTed. Kaufman is doing a great job – we just need to convince him to run.
Anybody who would vote for either Biden isn’t voting with their brain.
Gaffe a week VP and a no record AG?
Mike Protack
Pornstache would be the resident expert about not using one’s brain (or even having one). Hmmm, what’s your record, Mike? Four, five failed campaigns for office? Keep it up and you’ll equal Mike Miller’s record.
And now Protack is attacking Beau Biden’s service in Iraq. Protack hates the troops.
If the liberal community gathers behind someone and pledges both financial and field support, we can basically choose a candidate.
Karen Peterson?