Republicans Are Still Really Unpopular
The conventional wisdom this summer was that the GOP was ascendant because of the passion of the teabaggers and that they stand to gain seats in the 2010 elections. However, polling data over this period has shown a decrease in support for Democrats but has not shown any subsequent rise in favorability of the Republican party. Brendan Nyhan at Pollster.com asks how the 2009 Republican party favorability compares to party favorability at other aligining elections.
The overall finding is simple — the GOP’s standing relative to the Democrats on both measures is worse than any opposition party in the sample. For instance, the Pew data show that the Republicans are currently viewed more negatively than any minority party in the previous four midterms in terms of both net favorables and the difference in net favorables between parties:**
The CBS results (not shown) are even more dramatic. In June, when the question was most recently asked, Republican net favorables were -30% and Democratic net favorables were 25%, which swamps the comparable results from the previous cycles.
In short, there’s no question that the GOP party brand is in worse shape than any opposition party in recent memory. The question, however, is whether this difference in party valence will (a) persist through next November and (b) translate into fewer GOP House seats at the polls, especially once we account for the generic Congressional ballot, which should (in principle) take much of this difference into account (see Alan Abramowitz’s model, for instance). Those questions remain to be addressed.
Becoming the party of no is not really an electoral strategy, and this poll shows this. I think that the 2010 election results depend on two things: the economy (whether it will be improved enough for voters to feel it) and the fate of the health care bill. Anything can be sold as reform will probably be good for Democrats, since they’re being hurt right now by being seen as not able to govern despite huge majorities. I believe the passage of the public option will really help the Democrats – the public option polls very well and progressives have successfully depicted the fight for the public option as a fight against lobbyists and big business. Democrats really hold their own fate (mostly) in their own hands and I hope they don’t manage to screw it up.
Tags: Democrats, Polls, Republicans
The economy is turning around and is due in large part to aggressive monetary (stimulus) policy. The IMF report yesterday clearly addressed this issue and the overall world economic condition as improving. That will help the dems, but unemployment remains quite high.
It does appear the dems are (finally) getting the message on health care. If you haven’t watched Jon Stewart’s skit last night on HCR it’s worth a google search. At the end of the day, the PO is still alive.
I saw this somewhere a day or two ago and it stuck in my head. The Democrats may have been disappointing, but the Republicans have been disgusting. If the dems get anything close to a draw in 2010, it will be a major victory.
The Democrats have definitely been lucky in their opponents, that’s for sure.
I’d be cautious in counting on the economy by 2010. We are no where out of the woods and unemployment is likely to still be high. Dems need to refocus on legislative accomplishments and let the repubs twist in the wind. If Dems can contrast themselves as the people taking issues seriously and just let repubs keep banging on their cages you could keep the seat loss at a minimum.
Yes, the economy is showing encouraging signs but I don’t know when everyone is really going to start feeling the recovery – only after jobs start recovering.
Today’s unemployment report is supposed to top 10%. UGH!
The White House projects unemployment to be around 9.6% by next November. UGH!
Paul Krugman says it all in his NYT-Op-Ed today. Go to:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/02/opinion/02krugman.html?_r=1
The report just came out -263,000 jobs, unemployment rate 9.8%. There’s definitely still going to be pain for a while. Unemployment is a lagging indicator so it will keep going up as long after recovery begins. I hope employment starts going up sooner rather than later.
You’re right. This “No, no, no” strategy works with a portion of the hardcore conservative base, but not with the electorate as a whole. Ezra Klein has a post this morning saying just about the same thing, but in context of comparing today to ’93/’94.
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/ezra-klein/2009/10/will_2010_be_another_1994.html
Then Newt & Co. set themselves up as the opposition, but one with their own plan. Granted, it ended up being smoke and mirrors and they got their asses handed to them a few years later, but at least they had an alternative at the start. Now, the GOP is wildly unpopular (especially compared to ’94) and the Dems are still pretty well liked.
Scott P
I liked that Klein reminds us that this isn’t a zero-sum game. Voters don’t automatically switch from one party to the other, there are a lot of variables. One being the candidates themselves. The Republicans have been making themselves repugnant to most voters. I guess that’s a strategy but I don’t think it is a winning one.
Yeah, it’s kind of like the running-away-from-a-bear joke (you don’t have to be faster than the bear, just faster than the slowest guy). Even if Republicans make Dems a little more unpopular, they’re still way better liked than the GOP. As (I think) Ezra noted, the one exception to this could be in generating a general anti-incumbant feeling. However, except in very red districts, I think a disliked Democratic incumbant is still better off than a despised Republican challenger.
Also, Ezra has an interview with Carper from yesterday about his state, sort-public option plan. Check it out. (No, I don’t work for WaPo. Promise — no more Klein links today 🙂 )
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/ezra-klein/2009/10/the_public_option_compromises_1.html