2010 Cattle Call, October 2, 2009
I am starting a new monthly feature as we enter a new election year. This is a look at where the various Democratic Party and Anti-America… er ah Republican Party candidates for the various state wide offices stand at the end of that week.presidential aspirants stand. While I am compiling this list, it’s not a reflection of my personal preferences in that race. I am basing these rankings on everything from media reports to my opinions to your comments throughout the week.
US SENATE
Democrats
1. Beau Biden 
Beau is back, literally and figuratively. After facing a spring and summer of doubt as to his prospects should he run for this race, and even speculation as to whether he will or should run, two things occurred this week the cement the junior Biden as the Democratic frontrunner for this race. First, the Republican-leaning Rasmussen poll only has Castle up by 5… 47% to 42%. That is absolutely stunning result. Shocking. Those numbers are as spectacular for Biden as they are completely devastating for Castle, but more on that in a moment. Beau Biden has been in elected office for three years, a year of which was spent serving our country in Iraq as part of the Delaware National Guard. As a result of that service, he has been off the radar for that entire year, unable to raise money or campaign or even keep his public profile up. So with that discouraging start to a potential campaign, if he were to run, he would potentially be going up against a supposedly respected moderate who has served our State as Lt. Governor, Governor and its sole Congressman for the last twenty eight years. And early polls of this potential matchup had it as the mismatch it would appear to be. But now a Republican poll has him down by five, with Castle under 50. With those numbers, if Biden runs, he wins in a landslide come next November.
Second, the DSCC, the campaign arm of the Democratic Senate, says Biden is in. If he is, this cattle call is over, and Biden is the nominee.
2. John Carney 
If for some reason Biden does not run, Carney will transfer his already established congressional campaign to a Senate campaign. But with the news above, it looks like Carney won’t be doing anything of the kind.
Republicans
1. Christine O’Donnell
David Anderson heralds that Rasmussen poll as manna from heaven for Christine O’Donnell. I suppose because it shows O’Donnell back only 9 points from Biden. Well, it is a Republican poll, so take that result with a grain of salt for the interpretation that O’Donnell can make it a race against Biden or any Democrat, living or dead. Christine O’Donnell is a perfect example of the problem with the Republican Party today. She is beloved by the radical theocrat right, personified by David Anderson. Yet she is thoroughly unelectable in a general. But for the moment, she is the preferred candidate of the Republican base, and that is what wins you primaries. People forget that if Castle should run for the Senate, he will have a primary. And as Crazy Eileen and that Georgetown town hall shows, Castle is not loved by the right, no matter how he may try to placate them. With the Rasmussen poll showing Castle’s weakness in the general, and with the same poll showing O’Donnell within single digits to Biden, O’Donnell is now the clear favorite for the nomination. No amount of money can buy the devotion of the Republican base.
2. Mike Castle
I simply cannot explain to you how devastating that poll result is for Castle. 28 years in state wide office, winning election after election after election, and he can’t break 50% in a Republican poll. Couple that poll result with anemic fundraising and a total lack of interest in the race, and the writing is on the wall: Castle will not be our next Senator. If he doesn’t retire, he will lose in the primary or in the general.
3. Mike Protack
That poll result is so bad for Castle that I contemplated for a brief moment of putting Protack above Castle. Then I sobered up. In the battle of the washed up perennial whacko candidates, Protack takes second place to O’Donnell.
CONGRESS
Democrats
At this point this race remains static. Until Beau and Castle decide what they are doing the rest of the races in the state have the feel of a game of musical chairs before the music stops. Carney is the run away favorite, but he will have a primary against Scott Spencer, and he should engage Spencer in that primary. Spencer has been engaging Carney, but it has gone unnoticed so far, most likely because all the oxygen has been swallowed by Biden and Castle. We will be taking notice of both candidates as the election season gets under way, however. I list Matt Denn here only as a back bencher would could step in should Carney run for the Senate if Biden does not run. But with this week’s events, that seems unlikely.
1. John Carney
2. Scott Spencer
3. Matt Denn
Republicans
Castle has said that is not running for reelection to the House. It is Senate or retirement. So, the race is to succeed Castle is on. But not officially. There has been remarkably little to no public jousting for the job by Republicans so long as Castle remains indecisive about his plans. But tea leaves can be read. And you should read my post last week, After Castle.
[S]tate Rep. Tom Kovach, heads the list of potential candidates. He and businessman Anthony Wedo are considered the most likely prospects. Also on the GOP’s radar are a pair of reputable prosecutors in former U.S. Attorney Colm Connolly and former Assistant U.S. Attorney Ferris Wharton.
Having met Tom Kovach at Delaware Liberal’s Miles for Melanoma event this summer, I can say he will be a strong candidate and precisely the “Mike Castle Republican” the GOP needs (and those are Kovach’s words describing himself, not mine). Anthony Wedo? He is an unknown. An investment and resturant executive who could self finance a race. I suppose if the GOP is desparate for a sacrificial lamb against Carney in the House race should Castle retire, someone who can self fund his campaign, then Wedo is the perfect candidate, all the while Kovach can run for Senate and give Beau Biden a run for his money.
The Hill article mentions Ferris Wharton and Colm Connolly as the GOP’s ideal candidates. But Wharton is pretty focused on running for the Attorney General job again should Beau Biden run for Senate. And Colm Connolly seems to have no interest since joining the law firm of Morgan Lewis. He said it’s “not something I’m focused on.” Not a Shermanesque statement, but you sense less enthusiam from Connolly than you see from Castle, and I didn’t think that was possible.
In that post, I considered the possibility that the GOP would focus its attention on the Senate seat with or without Castle. That Rasmussen poll changes my mind. I think the GOP will instead focus its attention on defending Castle’s seat. And in that endeavour, Kovach is their guy. I suppose it is possible that Wedo could run for Senate to stave off certain defeat should O’Donnell win that primary, but Wedo seemed focused on the House race. So we will see.
1. Tom Kovach
2. Anthony Wedo
3. Colm Connolly
4. Ferris Wharton
TREASURER
Democrats
The current appointed treasurer says she is not running. Minds can be changed, though. Chip Flowers is an announced candidate and a newcomer that seems to have an impressive resume, although I do not know much more about him.
1. Velda Jones-Potter. 
2. Chip Flowers
Republicans
1. Colin Bonini
He is running. He filed the necessary papers to run for Treasurer back in August. Given that no other Republican seems to be running at the moment, I’d say he is good shape.
2. Charlie Copeland
Can he pull himself away from the Caesar Rodney Institute or Resolute Determination? Copeland is focused on a showdown with Governor Markell in 2012.
AUDITOR
Republicans
1. Tom Wagner
Democrats
They are both running. Both making the rounds. Korn is more well known in Democratic circles. The Matlusky name is more well known in Republican circles even though this brother Matlusky is a honest to God Democrat. Until the race gets going, I have to give the nod to the more well known.
1. Richard Korn
2. Ken Matlusky
ATTORNEY GENERAL
Democrats
1. Beau Biden
It looks as if Beau is running for Senate. But if he does run for reelection as AG, there is no race for nomination. It’s his.
2. Carl Danberg
He was AG before Biden. Will he be after, this time of his own initiative?
3. Richard Gebelein
He is the Acting AG while Biden served in Iraq. But him running for the office on his own is highly unlikely since he just resigned as Acting AG to take a job with the U.S. Agency for International Development in Bosnia.
Republicans
1. Ferris Wharton
As said above, he will run for AG if Biden runs for Senate. With that looking likely, and with the field clearing for him, he looks to have the nomination if he wants it.
I hear rumblings of Senator Colin Bonini gearing up for a run for the Treasurer seat. Third hand info at best.
Thanks Brian. Now that you mention it, I recall hearing similar rumors. I will edit the post.
Brian, as a party chair of the Sussex County Libertarian Party, you probably can’t answer this. But do you have any ideas as to who the Libertarians will run statewide for any of these offices?
Although you’d never hear the Biden camp admit it (and they will probably feel some relief when he drops out)- they are spoiling for a Castle v. Beau showdown. You have to beat the man to be the man. That’s how Joe did it, and that’s how they see Beau getting to the Senate.
It is the intersection of perverse family lore and politics.
If Castle doesn’t run, it will look like he was afraid to take on Biden.
With Mike Castle, I wonder how much an issue health and age will be in his decision? Against Biden, he will have to run a robust campaign!
I agree. I think he is tired and done. That was my impression from the town hall in Christiana last month. And the strokes in 2006 have to be weighing on his and his family’s mind.
Is this the same Bonini with the presentation at Delaware’s Bad Habit where the numbers didn’t make sense (where they appeared at all)? Oh yeah, this is gonna be fun — a Treasurer’s race where one candidate has already demonstrated gross innumeracy.
But do you have any ideas as to who the Libertarians will run statewide for any of these offices?
We have to run at least one statewide race every election to maintain ballot access. I have no interest in running for office this time around due to personal reasons and a recent promotion that I have to prove myself in, and I haven’t heard any rumblings from anyone in Sussex preparing a statewide campaign.
Maybe someone in New Castle County will run a typical Libertarian half hearted campaign to keep ballot access, but it will be nothing spectacular or challenging, I expect.
..and I probably shouldn’t have answered that, but it is the sad truth.
Isn’t Gebelein still a Republican? He used to be one. He ran as one:
“Gebelein, 59, has been on the Superior Court since 1984 with his current term set to expire in 2008. He was elected to one term as a Republican attorney general in 1978, in addition to his previous government work as a deputy attorney general and an assistant public defender.”
http://www.delawaregrapevine.com/6-05gebelein.asp
Wagner has been having some very serious health problems to deal with. I don’t know for sure if he’ll be up for another race.
First, it is a good thing if Castle goes away. As I said before he has been bad for the GOP in many ways. Many of us are new to politics this year but we are not going to be silent.
Kovach is a “Mike Castle Republican” by his own admission. If so Mr Kovach, stay in your district which you barely won and will probably lose in 2010. We are tired of Mike Castle Republicans. I bet you support Cap and Tax like your mentor does. Anthony Wedo? No one knows him and no one cares. The days when the GOP could appoint someone to the nomination is over. It cost us the House last year.
Treasurer is going to go Democrat as no one knows Bonini and Copeland won’t run as his career is likely over. Without Castle around Copeland is a nobody. When Castle leaves so will all the losers at the GOP like Ross, Rakestraw and Sperm Wimer the ED. The huge loss to Denn was the end for a guy who threw away a safe state senate seat which a liberal won. The duPont name is mud these days. He should have never teamed up with Lee, bad move. I wish it wasn’t so because he had a chance to be the new face of the GOP, maybe run for Mayor of Wilmington?
The Senate poll shows not how strong O’donnell is but how weak Castle and Beau Biden are. O’donnell has as much getting the GOP nomination for the Senate as Chicago had for the 2016 Olympics, none. Yes, buffoons like Jensen will fawn over her like high school sophomores but O’donnell only got the Senate nod in 2008 because no one cared plus Castle despises her and he will still try to handpick the slate. I think you forget Protack swamped her in 2006, she then had the write in race in 2006 and the state GOP ignored her in 2008. Let’s face it O’donnell makes the Taliban look liberal and that is not the GOP base despite your belief. She no military background, no sensible positions and is a 40 year old virgin?
We don’t like Beau but at least he served.
We know the one you attack the most is the one you fear the most.
I like Patriot except for the stuff about O’Whackjob. The DL CW is right on her poll numbers. They speak to Rassie’s wingnut-itude not to her strength.
But Patriot is right about Castle trying to handpick the slate. Is it any wonder that the Republicans who actually do the work of folding letters and knocking on doors don’t like him.
Patriot, before you can use that handle, were you disappointed that America lost the Olympic Games yesterday or did you cheer? If it is the latter, please change your handle immediately, for you are no patriot.
If you are not for O’Whackjob, who are you for? Protack? Or some other radical right darkhorse that is yet to be revealed?
Bonini is always rumored to be running for some seat or another. But he never does. Just sayin.
Rebecca’s right about Bonini, and I’ll suggest further that each of these lists is quite fluid. Once you get past the Congressional offices, the serious candidacies have yet to emerge.
It looks like the Sussex GOP has decided to offer up another sacrifice onto the altar of Pete Schwartzkopf. Chris Weeks. Don’t know anything about him.