The Invincible Mike Castle

I know there are posters here that believe Mike Castle is unbeatable and that if he enters the Senate race, he’ll win. It may be true that Castle would win the race, but he will have to work for it and not rely on his name recognition and nice guy reputation. I believe that Mike Castle is being hurt by the unpopularity of Republicans and their agenda of no. Let’s look at some polling numbers:

From March 2009:

The Public Policy Polling survey showed Castle leading Biden, the son of Vice President Joseph Biden, 44 percent to 36 percent. The automated survey of 782 Delaware voters was conducted March 5-8 and had a 3.5-point margin of error.

A Democratic polling firm had Castle leading by 8%.

From May 2009:

A new Susquehanna Polling and Research poll in Delaware shows Rep. Mike Castle (R-DE) soundly beating Attorney General Beau Biden (D) in a possible match up for U.S. Senate in 2010.

Castle leads Biden, 55% to 34% with only 8% undecided.

I think it’s very difficult to compare these two polls, but they did have Beau Biden at about the same number. I suspect Susquehanna pushed leaners harder. 21% is a big lead, however, and 55% is good for someone with the record and name-recognition of Mike Castle. The newest poll showed a lead by Castle of only 5% (47%-42%), and Castle below 50%. This poll was by a respected polling outfit, Rasmussen.

So let’s read the tea leaves here:

Castle has let several self-imposed deadlines pass with no announcement.

Castle did not attend the AIDS walk last weekend, despite attending every other year. This is an event very well attended by politicians.

Castle is reportedly avoiding the local media.

Castle is hosting a previously scheduled event in October, the event is being co-hosted by Kovach, whom Castle has spoken highly of.

Castle’s Senate elect numbers have deteriorated by as much as 16%.

The head of the DSCC says Biden is in the race.

My reading of the tea leaves suggest that Castle is out and Biden is in.