The Musical Chairs Stop
Castle is in. I must say I am pretty surprised by his decision. Everything over the past year, from his anemic fundraising to his delays in announcing to his lukewarm uninterested comments on the race to his wife’s desire for a Florida retirement to his confrontations with the Crazy Eileens of downstate to his health and his age all led me to believe that Castle was calling it a day.
He is going to get serious competition for the race, whether that be in the form of Beau Biden, John Carney or Matt Denn. The Democrats are not going to just give away a Senate seat just because “The Delaware Way” demands it. Indeed, I still find it hard to believe that Castle is going to run a competitive campaign, but that is probably because I have never seen Castle run a competitive campaign. I was 16 in 1992, the last real competitive campaign he had. Will he raise enough money for the race? And if he doesn’t, does he have a committment from the NRSC or the RNC?
And what does his decision mean for the rest of state wide races. As we know, former Lt. Governor John Carney is running for Congress. Local right wing whackjob Christine O’Donnell is running for Senate, which means Castle will have a primary, but probably not a competitive one that he will have to worrry about.
So now all eyes turn to Attorney General Beau Biden. Will he or won’t he? The Delaware Way requires that Biden run for reelection as AG in 2010, and then he can run for Senate in 2014 when Castle really retires. But is that what he is going to do? It might be the smart thing for him to do, since he has been away from the state serving honorably in Iraq for a year. But will he face pressure from national Democrats, including his Vice Presidential father, to run now? And if he doesn’t run, will John Carney or Matt Denn run in his place? And if either one of them does run for Senate, does the other run for the House? And if not, who runs for the House? Beau? New Castle County Executive Chris Coons? State Senator Mike Katz?
Oh the fun is just beginning.
Tags: DE-Sen
And DelawareLiberal acquires a renewed reason for existence, and a new lease on life.
Bloggers, charge up your cameras… the eyes of the national press will look here for local coverage of the campaign. All the national pols are coming to Delaware to endorse Castle or his opponent. It’s time for the weird to turn pro.
Props to Jason, who is the first person I ever heard criticize Mike Castle.
If ever there were a moment for Jason to come back it is now.
Plus, Donviti has calmed down a bit so I think it’s safe now.
LOL.
My take on Castle is that there is NO WAY that he would commit to run in a race that BBiden would also run–I think that Castle has it on good authority that BBiden won’t run (and I don’t consider that either a good thing or a bad thing).
Carney (who will be at PDD tomorrow night) has shown himself to be a loyal state Democrat, with his solid support of Markell after losing the close primary race. Now will the state party (Daniello, with arm-twisting from our favorite US Senator Tom Carper) suggest that Carney remain aiming for the US Rep seat, and put up only token opposition to Castle, in typically Delaware Way fashion? I hope not (I would like to see Carney run against Castle for US Senate), but I expect so.
This will leave a Denn/Coons as the most likely near-first-tier candidate to run against Castle for US Senator.
Castle REALLY retires on Nov. 4, 2010, regardless of when he OFFICIALLY retires.
Voters will have to determine whether they want yet another lame duck following Ted Kaufman who, I suspect, will prove to have given more energy to the post than Castle, should Castle be elected.
Castle may have received knowing winks from VP Joe and Mike’s Rethuglican counterpart Tom Carper, but I suspect that won’t keep a legit D challenger out of the race this time. For a similar situation, see Specter, Arlen.
Why do you keep tapping on Carney as a possible Senate opponent? Wishful thinking? He’s committed to the US Rep seat at this point. Yeah, it’s early but it’s be a fool’s game to do a “Whoops, changed my mind, I want THAT one over there” move at this point. Honestly, Carney would do himself no favors in looking indecisive right now for which seat he wants to run. He’s already come out in full vision of the US Rep seat. FWIW, that seat is his to lose at this point…not his to win, but his to lose. Let’s see what the GOP has in store, but today, it’s Carney’s.
Carney as Senate candidate–wishful thinking? Certainly. Isn’t this the place for that?
As far as whether it’d be a fool’s game–there’s 13 months, and Castle has taken this long to make up his mind. How is changing your mind now any weaker than taking this long to make up your mind?
There’s good spin–“when I saw that Mike Dinosaur Castle would be the Republican candidate for Delaware’s second US Senator, I felt that I owed it to my state to step up to the plate and run against him.”
At this point is the operative phrase there, isn’t RSmitty? I mention Carney only because 1) he is already running for federal office and 2) he is one of three Dems with state wide pedigree and name regonition.
If Carney stays in the race for the house and Biden adheres to the Delaware Way, I think Denn is the best chance the Democrats have for the senate. He’s young, charismatic, energetic, smart, and I think his name recognition isn’t too bad.
I would like to see Karen Peterson give this a shot, but she can’t even get the support of many of her fellow D’s in Dover. Too far ahead of her time and disrepectful of the Delaware Way — in other words, always looking out for her constituents.
Carney would do a fools game to look indecisive? It worked for Mr. Castle. It got everyone to talk about him for 5 months without spending a dime. I have my own theory that I will save for my own blog latter tonight.
Well, I guess it’s obvious you will be fronlining Christine, David, but that’s a choice you have.
Carney would do a fools game to look indecisive? It worked for Mr. Castle.
Sigh, already starting your friend’s tactics, I see. That approach really is an addictive virus. ANYWAY, the point I made, not the one you twist it to be, is that Carney already announced he would run for US Rep; whereas, Castle announced nothing, other than stay tuned. If Carney, after having already said he was running for US Rep, suddenly said, “Oh, my bad, I meant I was running for Senate…LOL…” THAT would be a fool’s game.
Stop with the opportunistic political crap, especially on my back. I find it reprehensible now and always have.
The Delaware Way isn’t just a way to swap jobs. It requires actually listening and working together in a bipartisan way. By that standard, it went the way of the dodo years ago. The Dems will run for this seat. Markell is the best evidence of that.
I posted he would run for the Senate. What else is he going to do? Sit around and hold tea parties and fund raisers with the non-existent republican party in Delaware? Most people would rather be dead.
The Delaware Way has finally come to a crossroads. No way Carper et al will fight the son of the VP in a race for a Senate seat held by a Democrat with the national Democratic Party watching. No way can they work behind the scenes to undermine the Democratic candidate as they have in the past to protect Castle. Those days are over, at least for this race. It will be interesting to watch Tommy Carper as this race unfolds.
It is a race Castle can win. Biden has done virtually nothing as AG. His credentials for the Senate are almost nil. Not that that matters. He’s good looking, articulate and charasmatic. Dead heat.