Why Corzine and Christie Are Now in a Dead Heat
After months of trailing Republican challenger Chris Christie, at one point by double digits, incumbent N. J. Gov. Jon Corzine has pulled even, according to the latest polling (PDF file).
In my opinion, this change can be explained in three words:
Negative campaigning works.
Allow me to put a thin veneer of complexity on this hypothesis. Negative campaigning works, especially if your opponent does little or nothing to dispel the negative canvass painted by the negative ads.
For weeks now, we’ve been seeing an ad that paints Christie not only as a scofflaw who has used his office to escape sanctions for his actions, but a REALLY FAT, filmed in black and white and seemingly followed by ominous music wherever his slow motion walks take him, scofflaw at that.
Christie has done very little to dispel this notion. Why? Here’s why, and if Christie loses an election that seemed virtually unloseable, this will be the reason:
As a wealthy former Wall Street bond trader and executive, Corzine has ample personal resources for an expensive campaign, and has been buying plenty of TV time. Christie, who by accepting matching public funds is much more limited in what he can spend, has been far more frugal, relying more on the social networking sites.
“They outspent us 10-to-1 during the summer months. Outspending us on television, on internet ads and a larger staff,” said Christie strategist Mike DuHaime.
“Our budget is a public number. We’re capped at $10.9 million,” DuHaime said. “We’ve had to be creative. When you know you’re going to be outspent, you have to be creative.”
I cannot, for the life of me, understand the Christie strategy. Why would you cap yourself at $10.9 million when you knew going in that your opponent had virtually limitless resources?
While Corzine would likely outspend Christie regardless, in a year when NJ and Va. are the only games in town, Christie surely could have raised more money by not accepting the spending limits. He didn’t have to match Corzine dollar for dollar, just raise enough to be on TV and be competitive.
This race is nowhere near over. If Christie, through debate performances, can demonstrate that he is not the heavy or, in wrestling parlance, the ‘heel’ he’s been made out to be, he still may win. After all, Corzine was unpopular on merit, and that has not really changed.
However, he and his campaign team have allowed Corzine back into the race. A terrible mistake, and one that could haunt them on November 3.
Tags: New Jersey, Politics
Christie is just a bad candidate, I think. He certainly has done little to dispel the abuse of authority stories that have come out. I think some of Christie’s support is actually migrating to the independent candidate.
For better or worse, many have presented this race as a proxy vote on the performance of Obama in his first year. I, for one, plan to do the dance of joy if Corzine wins and tell the Republicans that they have not closed that gap nearly as much as they had thought.
I will say that the best campaign ad that I have seen in the race is actually for the independent. That escalator ad is genius.
if corzine wins, it will be with less than 50% of the vote… giving pundits and bloggers of all stripes plenty to pontificate about.
I think you’re right, RICO. The Indy candidate will serve as a proxy for ‘neither of the others’.
One of the things that people often forget about people in NJ is that they hate their politicians. The dynamics of this race aren’t all that unusual (Bob Menendez, anyone?) and when the day to vote comes NJ folks often pick the devil they know.
And often it’s the Democratic devil they know. Especially these days with the registration disparity. Neither Menendez, Lautenberg nor Corzine could be described as inspiring figures. But the Whitman/Case wing of the Republican Party seems dead, which is unfortunate, and enables undistinguished figures to hold office largely due to political affiliation.
This surely one of the ugliest races I’ve ever seen… locally at least. Christie bringing his cancer surviving mother out in front of the camera (very palinish) then Corzine with his counter ad where he again calls Christie a liar. I REALLY don’t like Corzine as the Proxy for Obama’s first year because he really IS sleaze bag.
and LG, don’t be so optimistic. If Corzine wins, it will be “not by much” the “power of Obama is failing” and “new jersey is a democratic strong hold anyway and the race was close” so “it means the whole country wants Obama out”. we all know the swine will spin it into a Repuke win. … who knows, they might write into their new Bible that it is the first sign of the second coming.
keep fuckin’ that chicken repukes. (i LOVE that phrase)
MediaCurves.com conducted a study among 300 New Jersey residents on the recent anti Chris Christie ad that states Christie is “throwing his weight around.” The results showed that the majority of all political parties do not believe the “weight” reference in the ad was intended to reference Christie’s actual weight. Additionally, the majority of Democrats (59%) and Independents (62%) do not believe the reference to “weight” was inappropriate, while Republicans were split, with 44% of Republicans indicating that the reference was inappropriate and an equal amount (44%) reporting that it was appropriate.
More in depth results can be seen at:
http://www.mediacurves.com/Politics/J7588-AntiChristieAd/Index.cfm
Thanks,
Ben