After months of trailing Republican challenger Chris Christie, at one point by double digits, incumbent N. J. Gov. Jon Corzine has pulled even, according to the latest polling (PDF file).
In my opinion, this change can be explained in three words:
Negative campaigning works.
Allow me to put a thin veneer of complexity on this hypothesis. Negative campaigning works, especially if your opponent does little or nothing to dispel the negative canvass painted by the negative ads.
For weeks now, we’ve been seeing an ad that paints Christie not only as a scofflaw who has used his office to escape sanctions for his actions, but a REALLY FAT, filmed in black and white and seemingly followed by ominous music wherever his slow motion walks take him, scofflaw at that.
Christie has done very little to dispel this notion. Why? Here’s why, and if Christie loses an election that seemed virtually unloseable, this will be the reason:
As a wealthy former Wall Street bond trader and executive, Corzine has ample personal resources for an expensive campaign, and has been buying plenty of TV time. Christie, who by accepting matching public funds is much more limited in what he can spend, has been far more frugal, relying more on the social networking sites.
“They outspent us 10-to-1 during the summer months. Outspending us on television, on internet ads and a larger staff,” said Christie strategist Mike DuHaime.
“Our budget is a public number. We’re capped at $10.9 million,” DuHaime said. “We’ve had to be creative. When you know you’re going to be outspent, you have to be creative.”
I cannot, for the life of me, understand the Christie strategy. Why would you cap yourself at $10.9 million when you knew going in that your opponent had virtually limitless resources?
While Corzine would likely outspend Christie regardless, in a year when NJ and Va. are the only games in town, Christie surely could have raised more money by not accepting the spending limits. He didn’t have to match Corzine dollar for dollar, just raise enough to be on TV and be competitive.
This race is nowhere near over. If Christie, through debate performances, can demonstrate that he is not the heavy or, in wrestling parlance, the ‘heel’ he’s been made out to be, he still may win. After all, Corzine was unpopular on merit, and that has not really changed.
However, he and his campaign team have allowed Corzine back into the race. A terrible mistake, and one that could haunt them on November 3.