James Carville’s political polling organization, Democracy Corps, released a very interesting report last week (warning: PDF). They surveyed the base of the Republican party and found that they had a different understanding of the world than the rest of the U.S. It’s a much more paranoid view.
The self-identifying conservative Republicans who make up the base of the Republican Party stand a world apart from the rest of America, according to focus groups conducted by Democracy
Corps. These base Republican voters dislike Barack Obama to be sure – which is not very surprising as base Democrats had few positive things to say about George Bush – but these voters identify themselves as part of a ‘mocked’ minority with a set of shared beliefs and knowledge, and commitment to oppose Obama that sets them apart from the majority in the country. They believe Obama is ruthlessly advancing a ‘secret agenda’ to bankrupt the United States and dramatically expand government control to an extent nothing short of socialism. While these voters are disdainful of a Republican Party they view to have failed in its mission, they overwhelmingly view a successful Obama presidency as the destruction of this country’s founding principles and are committed to seeing the president fail.
It sounds very Glenn Beckian. Gee, do you wonder where they’re getting these ideas? The surveys say this is not related to racism. However, do these Republicans ever ask themselves why they are so panicked and why now? Democracy Corps also looked at other groups of voters – conservative leaning but not partisan Republicans.
The Republican base voters are not part of the continuum leading to the center of the electorate: they truly stand apart. For additional perspective, Democracy Corps conducted a parallel set of groups in suburban Cleveland. These groups, comprised of older, white, non-college independents and weak partisans, represent some of the most conservative swing voters in the
electorate, and they demonstrated a wholly different worldview from Republican base voters by dismissing the fear of “socialism” and evaluating Obama in very different terms. Most importantly,
regardless of their personal feelings toward Obama or how they voted in 2008, they very much want to see him succeed because they believe the country desperately needs the change he promised in his campaign. Though we kept discussion points constant between the two sets of groups, on virtually every point of discussion around President Obama and the major issues facing our country, these two audiences simply saw the world in fundamentally different ways – underscoring the extreme disconnect of the conservative Republican base voters.
This is the base Republicans must appeal to, while still trying to appeal to the electorate as a whole. You can see how this will be a big problem for them since these groups are operating on completely different sets of facts. I know the coventional wisdom right now is that the Republicans will gain in 2010 but I’m a bit skeptical that Republicans are going to be able to walk this tightrope in swing districts, although I think Democrats from deep red areas (like Blanche Lincoln in Arkansas a hotbed of birtherism) may be in deep trouble.
I’m sure you’re also not surprised that the Republican base only trusts Fox News and no other news outlets. They absolutely love Glenn Beck:
Glenn Beck, however, received nothing short of adulation from these voters, particularly the women. They believe he embodies the best of conservative media – determination to unearth the stories the liberal media tries to bury, love of country, and refusal to be intimidated, even as the liberal media unleashes waves of attacks on his past and his credibility.
I think he’s a patriot… I think he’s passionate. You know they make jokes about him crying and all this kind of stuff; I think the man, I think the man feels it. I think he’s genuine.
I think the guy’s brilliant. No one goes after him because he does his homework. He checks, double checks, triple checks and he says he refuses to put it on the air unless it’s been checked a hundred different times. So when you can’t get at him, you start calling
him names and start digging into his past.He is a firecracker… He tells the truth… He is also a person who says what he thinks… He gets emotional, but if you can past the emotion and follow his logic, he makes some really good points.
I get angry when I watch his show because I get angry that no one is listening to this and how come regular media is not airing it.
Two aspects of the discussion on Beck among conservative Republicans were particularly noteworthy. One was a common fear among the women for his personal safety, a belief that his willingness to stand up to powerful liberal interests was putting his life, as well as the lives of those working with him, in danger. Of course, his willingness to face this danger head on only adds to his legend.
I fear for his life… He is heavily secured believe me.
Glenn Beck is the type of man that he has put his personal finances on the line to protect everyone of his employees. They all have… bodyguards, security, high security. He said I don’t care if my business goes down or I am put out of business, this is my family, my family and, he has twelve employees in his business. That is the kind of man he is.
The other is the commitment these voters have made to Beck and his show. More than half of the respondents in our conservative Republicans groups indicated that they try to watch or listen to Beck on a daily basis, with some going to great lengths to ensure they (and their families) do not miss a thing.
What will happen when Beck has his inevitable flame-out? And the only Republican leader that excited them? Sarah Palin. I know it’s a long time until 2012, but could Sarah Palin actually be the Republican candidate?