Despite what you may be hearing from Republicans, poll results are showing big trouble in the Republican ranks. The latest Washington Post/ABC poll showed Congressional Republicans with an abysmal 19% confidence rating (great deal/good deal), down from 29% in January. (Obama has 49% and Congressional Democrats have 34% confidence ratings, Obama’s overall approval was 57%). This poll also shows 57% approval for the public option, which increases to 78% if the public option is only available for people who can’t find affordable insurance. These ratings have been fairly steady since September after showing a dip in August at the height of the Summer of Spittle.
So, what effect might this be having on national Republicans? One indication may be the NY-23 special election.
Michael Long, chairman of the Conservative Party of New York, is urging fellow conservatives not to contribute to the National Republican Congressional Committee.
His complaint: The NRCC is supporting the Republican candidate in New York’s 23rd Congressional District, who he says is out of step with GOP values.
The Republicans have nominated centrist State Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava as their candidate in the special election to be held on Nov. 3. In response, the Conservative Party nominated its own candidate, local accountant Doug Hoffman. Hoffman has been getting some traction, winning endorsements from several conservative groups and garnering 16% support in a recent poll. That has Republicans worried he will siphon support from Scozzafava and let Democrat Bill Owens pull off a victory.
NY-23 is a Republican district and the election is being held to replace Republican Rep. John McHugh, who left the House to become Secretary of the Army. Scozzafava is seen as a moderate. She is backed by the Republican party and Newt Gingrich. Doug Hoffman has been endorsed by Dick Armey, the Club for Growth, the Family Research Council and former presidential candidate Fred Thompson (among others).
Could the Doug Hoffman candidacy in NY-23 become a broader movement next year?
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Reflecting the disgust many voters are feeling with both parties right now, 22% of respondents said they would choose an independent or third party candidate. Predictably 45% of independent identifying voters said they would but so did 19% of Republicans and 10% of Democrats.
The fact that twice as many GOP voters as Democrats would prefer to vote for a third way instead of their own party next year could seriously confound Republican hopes of making large gains in the House and Senate.
72% of the Republicans expressing a wish to vote for a third party candidate are conservatives and 47% of them think that Congressional Republicans are too liberal. That is the exact sentiment Hoffman is tapping into.