Call It! Final Predictions of Nov 3 Elections
This weekend’s dramatic turn of events up in NY-23 means that the teabaggers bagged a real scalp from the establishment Republicans and no matter the outcome, the Republican Party (at least the part that is serious about governing) has a real problem on its hands. The media will be repeating that this election is a referendum on Obama (while the only nationalized election is NY23) even though Obama is holding his own with approval ratings pretty close to his election winning numbers and these other races haven’t been nationalized in the way NY 23 has been.
So today multiple off-year elections will be held across the country. These seem to be the most watched, but you can add predictions for others if you like. Make your FINAL predictions complete with winning spreads in the comments below. Make sure to include your answer to the Bonus question. Predictions must be made before 5PM to count. Whoever has the most correct predictions, with the closest guess to the winning spread and closest guess to the Bonus Question wins a delightful prize. So tell us what you think about the winners (or winning conditions) for these races:
New Jersey Governor
- Jon Corzine -D
- Chris Christie – R
- Chris Daggett – I
Virgina Governor
- Creigh Deeds -D
- Bob McDonnell -R
NY-23 House of Representatives
- Doug Hoffman – C
- Bill Owens – D
- Dede Scozzofava -R
CA-10 House of Representatives
- John Garamendi – D
- David Harmer -R
Maine Question 1 seeks to repeal the new laws governing marriage equity.
- Yes–vetos the law
- No — keeps the law
Washington State Referendum 71 seeks to confirm a law which confers the same rights on same-sex couples as are conferred on other marriages.
- Yes — keeps the law
- No — vetos the law
Bonus Question!
Tell us the most brain-dead narrative the media will settle on to find larger meaning in these off year races. And since they’ve been doing this since summer — the option of a narrative that these races are a referendum on Obama’s policies is off of the table.
Tags: 2009 Elections
I don’t believe that today’s results are going to be a referendum on Obama or Democrats or presage much for next year. A year is a very long time in politics.
However, the nervous nellies in the House will be watching the outcome in NY23 and may, just may, use a Hoffman blow-out, if that happens, to back pedal on the Public Option. Here’s what Politico says this morning . . .
If Hoffman wins decisively, Democratic officials privately acknowledge that it would deal a blow to their efforts to pass health care reform legislation. Swing-district Democrats are carefully monitoring this race — even more than the two gubernatorial races Tuesday — as a test of national sentiment toward the administration’s policies. If a conservative unknown roared back in the polls in just a month’s time to defeat the Obama-endorsed candidate, the outcome would send shock waves across the Hill.
New Jersey Governor
Jon Corzine -D 47%
Chris Christie – R 45%
Chris Daggett – I 8
Virgina Governor
Creigh Deeds -D 47%
Bob McDonnell -R 54%
NY-23 House of Representatives
Doug Hoffman – C 48%
Bill Owens – D 52%
Dede Scozzofava -R
CA-10 House of Representatives
John Garamendi – D
David Harmer -R
I haven’t a clue; have not been following the race
Maine Question 1 seeks to repeal the new laws governing marriage equity.
Yes–vetos the law 51% as much as I hate saying it
No — keeps the law 49%
Washington State Referendum 71 seeks to confirm a law which confers the same rights on same-sex couples as are conferred on other marriages.
Yes — keeps the law 49%
No — vetos the law 51%
Brain-dead narrative: That same-sex marriage can only be achieved through judicial or legislative action, and that the American people buy into the Christianist interpretation of marriage as the lynchpin of all civilization.
Nov 2nd? you trying some republican trick to get people to come out on the wrong day to vote?
Why, Yes I Am!
If Republicans are purging the FAKES from their ranks, I’m thinking they’ll vote on a FAKE day too!
Thanks for the catch and it is fixed.
So where is your prediction?
Just a word on the poll today. One of the things that I do not understand about the opposition to gay marriage is that it ABSOLUTELY does not affect anyone who is not part of the LGBT community. And then it only affects those LGBTers who want to get married.
New Jersey Governor
Jon Corzine -D 48%
Chris Christie – R 42%
Chris Daggett – I 10
Virgina Governor
Creigh Deeds -D 45%
Bob McDonnell -R 55%
NY-23 House of Representatives
Doug Hoffman – C 49%
Bill Owens – D 51%
Dede Scozzofava -R
CA-10 House of Representatives
John Garamendi – D 54
David Harmer -R 46
based on Garamendi’s name recognition.
Maine Question 1 seeks to repeal the new laws governing marriage equity.
Yes–vetos the law 48%
No — keeps the law 52%
Washington State Referendum 71 seeks to confirm a law which confers the same rights on same-sex couples as are conferred on other marriages.
Yes — keeps the law 52%
No — vetos the law 48%
Brain dead comment – The teabag movement has legs and Obama and the Democrats need to be worried about 2010.
No effing clue.
My prediction is a mixed result, not a sweep for either side. Won’t stop the spin though.
NJ Gov
Corzine 46
Christie 47
Daggett 7
VA-Gov
Deeds 45
Mickey D 55
NY-23
Hoffman 48.5
Owens 47.5
Commie-Lib 4
CA-10
Garamendi 59
Truth-in-advertising 41
Maine Question 1
Yes 49.5
No 50.5
WSR-71
Yes 52
No 48
Narrative:
Despite polls to the contrary, the summer of spittle has galvanized conservatives and has cost Democrats 2 Gov seats and lost an important battle in NY (despite the fact that the majority of voters in NY23 are registered R). Oh and keep an eye out for James Carville with a trashcan on his head when the Corzine results come in.
NJ-Gov
Corzine (D) 45
Christie (R) 44
Daggett (I) 11
VA-Gov
McDonnell (R) 53
Deeds (D) 45
NY-23
Hoffman (I) 45
Owens (D) 44
Scozzafava (R) 7
CA-10
Garamendi (D) 55
Harmer (R) 45
Maine Prop 1
Yes 49%
No 51%
Washington Ref 71
Yes 53%
No 47%
Braindead narrative:
A win by Hoffman in NY-23 means that Republicans are back despite its real meaning that Republicans are splitting.
Everyone checking on the polls and Intrade — we close the predictions at 5PM SHARP!
While I know the pleasure of our company is reward enough, get your predictions in soon to be eligible for the prize.
Interesting poll question about Maine. To the people who said, “No” I would remind you of the words of Robert Kennedy:
I would like to know of the 2 people that said “yes, negatively”
HOW?
I am willing to be 99.9% of it is all in your head.
Right on, Brian.