Understanding the Election
1. GOP picks up VA-Gov – Conservative Democrat loses to Conservative Republican. A Democrat cannot win Virginia by promising to block health care reform. A win for conservatives, but not much impact to progressives.
2. GOP picks up NJ-Gov – much more serious loss. It shows that the GOP can win in the Northeast by avoiding all mention of social issues and health care. This is good news for moderate Republicans, bad news for conservatives. Conservatives want to see this as a big win, but they gain nothing from this. In any case, being a former Goldman Sachs executive is kind of a political liability given the economic crises Corzine faced. Still, this is a loss for progressives.
3. Democrats pick up NY-23 – Conservative Democrat beats Conservative Teabagger. A big loss for conservatives that will hurt their ability to defeat Charlie Crist, Mark Kirk, and other moderate Republicans. For progressives, adding another Blue Dog to our party doesn’t help us much. It’s a win for Obama, though, who created this open seat and was able to take advantage of it.
4. John Garamendi replaces Ellen Tauscher in CA-10 – This is a win for progressives that balances out the more conservative Bill Owens of NY-23. Ellen Tauscher was a pro-business “New Democrat” (like Tom Carper). Garamendi is a progressive who will stand with us on Health Care.
5. Marriage Equality denied in Maine – This is, by far, the worst loss of the night. But remember – time is on our side. The bigots keep getting older and fewer. My generation supports marriage equality the way my parent’s generation supported interracial marriage. We will win this fight, and there will be no turning back the clock.
6. GOP regaining strength in the NYC suburbs – Long Island and Westchester, NY, are a bellwether for national trends, and I’m not saying that just because I grew up there.
Westchester County Executive Andy Spano (D) suffering a unexpected and crushing defeat against Republican Rob Astorino. Nassau County Executive Tom Suozzi (D) barely hung on by about 200 votes against a largely unknown challenger, and a Republican narrowly defeated the Democratic incumbent for Nassau County Comptroller. Republicans won back the Nassau County Legislature (10 seats to 9) for the first time in a decade and picked up 2 seats in the Suffolk County Legislature. Republicans defeated Democratic incumbents for the mayor’s offices of Mamaroneck and Rye and the town supervisor positions in Yorktown and Lewisboro in Westchester. Republicans still hold the Town Supervisor positions in Hempstead, Oyster Bay, and Smithtown (“towns” in Nassau and Suffolk are the size of cities – the Town of Hempstead is about the size of San Francisco or Detroit and much larger than Buffalo, while the Town of Smithtown in Suffolk is larger than Wilmington).
This is potentially the most significant story of the night – the GOP is regaining strength in the suburbs. I knew the Democrats were on their way back to power in 2005 when we swept through upstate NY and the NYC suburbs racking up victories. We won congress in 2006 and 2008 because we won the suburbs. We need the Philly suburbs to win Pennsylvania; we need NoVa to win Virginia.
By the same token, though, there is no reason to despair – while the GOP made some important gains, they merely climbed their way back to competitive status. They did not beat Suozzi, they failed to defeat the Democratic town supervisors of North Hempstead, Babylon, Huntington, and Brookhaven (a GOP bastion until 2005), and they failed to defeat Nassau’s Democratic District Attorney. Compared to some of the landslide upsets seen in 2005, this election merely suggests we’ll have a tougher go at it in 2010.
We need to pass strong public health care NOW. We can’t wait for the GOP to acquire more filibustering senators. Public option health care is popular, and will be remembered as a Democratic achievement for decades (like Social Security and Medicare). If we can strengthen the spine of Harry Reid – and prevent Tom Carper from watering things down – we will beat back the GOP and hold our ground in 2010.
Fascinating post. Hope you don’t mind, X, I added some spaces to make it easier to read.
Actually, I agree with most of what X said.
I’m not as certain as x that NJ is such a serious loss. Afterall, the legislature did not change hands and the CW there seemed to be that if Christie won that he would have some coattails. People looking for change wanted it in the Governor’s Mansion only it seems.
The lesson is you have to work at the purple areas and continue to deliver on stuff that will motivate people to vote for you. This is the same lesson for portions of the Obama coalition too — the kids and the independents especially are not so much tied to Democrats and they’ve vote for you if you give them a reason to.
I disagree about passing health care. I’m not interested in passing a bill that will likely enrich insurance companies, and a public option ain’t gonna cut it. I’ll vote for health care reform in 10 or 20 years, when single-payer comes to a vote.
For progressives, this is a situation in which half a loaf is worse than none, because I don’t give a rip at this point whether Obama gets re-elected or not. As we learned under Bush, giving Republicans power leads to Democrats winning elections. Maybe our next Democratic president will actually have a progressive agenda he is willing to fight for.
I agree with geezer a bit. Obama proved to be a great vote getter but an absent leader without conviction to any agenda. Super majority in the House and Senate have netted him zilch.
Health Care reform is AFU as Obama made deals with so many of the interested parties (Pharma and Insurance companies) that the issue got saturated by competing 1000 page bills and trillion dollar costs.
The Massachusetts plan gives everyone instant access and comparison to insurance plans but has not lowered costs one dime. The insurance companies have lost nothing.
Sadly, the public option so many people hold on to as the dream is unworkable and is doomed.
Mike Protack
The Massachusetts plan gives everyone instant access and comparison to insurance plans but has not lowered costs one dime. The insurance companies have lost nothing.
Anyone want to take a guess as to whether Protack is right or wrong? Put on your surprised faces — he’s wrong! According to industry reports, premiums in Mass. have fallen significantly since reforms were passed.
I know it’s like fish in a barrel, but I couldn’t resist. And here is the link:
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/ezra-klein/2009/11/massachusetts_provides_evidenc.html