November Cattle Call

Last month’s Cattle Call is here. The statewide fields are starting to take shape for 2010.

US SENATE

Democrats
1. Beau Biden
Three recent polls show Attorney General Biden leading Castle by 5, trailing him by 1, and trailing him by 5. And it was all but announced by our Governor and the former President of the United States that Beau Biden is running for the Senate. So, unless Beau shocks us all and demurs, we have to consider him the presumptive Democratic nominee.

Republicans
1. Mike Castle
In between the last Cattle Call and this one, Mike Castle finally ended his long tease and declared that he was running for the Senate. He was up by 5 points in the right leaning Rasmussen poll at that time. Since then, he was only up by 1 in the Research 2000 poll and down by 5 to Beau Biden in the Susquehanna Poll. It would seem that as voters pay actual attention to Castle’s votes, they are not liking what they are seeing.

2. Christine O’Donnell
Christine’s candidacy has, for some inexplicable reason, forced Castle to move to the right in his votes. Since the Rasmussen poll, we have not had any polls of the GOP primary, so we cannot tell if O’Donnell is gaining so as to provoke such a response from Castle. Perhaps Castle is just moving preemptively to shore up his right flank. The problem for Castle is that the more he tacks right, the more he loses the center, and the more the right sees through him and declares him a RINO. The question is, can O’Donnell pull this off? I doubt it, but it will be fun to watch.

CONGRESS
Democrats
1. John Carney
This is Carney’s race for the taking. A scandal would have to emerge that damages Carney’s character and campaign for Scott Spencer to overtake him.

2. Scott Spencer
The 10% Campaign Donations to Charity is an interesting way to challenge Carney.

3. Matt Denn
Looks like his services will not be needed.

Republicans
Since Castle has finally announced his Senate plans, this seat is now officially open on the GOP side. And two candidates have officially announced they are running or are exploring a run, and one has officially said he is not running. I have to put the two that are officially running or exploring a run before those who we speculate will run.

1. Kevin Wade
Who?

2. Fred Cullis
What?

3. Charlie Copeland
Mike Castle on who is successor should be: “That’s a good question. Charlie Copeland’s clearly a strong possibility. There are people like Greg Lavelle and Tom Kovach, who are state House members. John Carney without a doubt will be the Democratic nominee, and he’ll be formidable.”

Copeland on whether he will run: “Oh gosh. I don’t know. I don’t even know who’s running on the Democratic side right now. What’s Beau Biden doing? If Biden can choose between running against Mike Castle in a general election or John Carney in a primary, I know where’d I be. Carney is 0-for-1 in primaries,” Copeland said.

A gratuitous shot at Carney. Hmmmm. And we have the hints from Burris that someone more credible than Wade or Cullis will run. Given Burris’ CRI connections to Copeland…. I wonder if Prince Charlie is running. Personally, I will be surprised if he does run. Another statewide loss in 2 years will severely hurt Copeland’s expected challenge to Governor Markell in 2012.

4. Tom Kovach
Would be a strong candidate if Copeland doesn’t run.

5. Gregg Lavelle
He is not running.

4. Colm Connolly
He has no interest in running.

5. Anthony Wedo
He is apparently not living in Delaware. No matter how much money you have, a requirement for running for Congress from Delaware is being a Delaware resident. We Delawareans are anal that way.

6. Ferris Wharton
With Beau all but running for Senate, he will run for the AG.

TREASURER
Democrats
1. Velda Jones-Potter.
This is what I said last month: “The current appointed treasurer says she is not running. Minds can be changed, though.” And she changed her mind.

2. Chip Flowers
With Jones-Potter running, it will be tough for Chip to break through.

Republicans
1. Colin Bonini
I guess he is running, but like Celia, sometimes we have no idea. :

Colin Bonini is the human teabag who is constantly putting himself in and taking himself out. He is a Republican state senator who has been eyeballing statewide office almost as soon as he got to the Delaware General Assembly in 1994.

2. Charlie Copeland
If he doesn’t run for Congress, I don’t he will run for anything before 2012.

AUDITOR
Republicans
1. Tom Wagner
He is running until he isn’t.

Democrats
What I said last month still applies:

Korn is more well known in Democratic circles. The Matlusky name is more well known in Republican circles even though this brother Matlusky is a honest to God Democrat. Until the race gets going, I have to give the nod to the more well known.

1. Richard Korn
2. Ken Matlusky

ATTORNEY GENERAL
Democrats
1. Beau Biden
It is more and more likely that he is running for the Senate.

2. Carl Danberg
He was AG before Biden. Will he be after?

3. Chris Coons
He has got to be looking to get out of New Castle County Government now that Mike Protack is looking to move in .

Republicans
1. Ferris Wharton
He will run for AG if Biden runs for Senate. With that looking likely, and with the field clearing for him, he looks to have the nomination if he wants it.