The Presidant gave a speech this evening to West Point cadets. The strategy is the surge part deux. 30,000 new troops to Afghanistan to stabilize the situation and support the shitty government there. Then start pulling the troops out in 18 months. Many soldiers will miss only a single Christmas.
As much as I have watched, the people that I usually agree with have decried the plan as awful. John McCain liked everthing except the withdrawal. Whatever.
This is a tough situation that the President has found himself in. But I think it has some merit and that Obama has some advantages over others in similar situations.
- Vietnam – Obama is right, we were not attacked by Vietnam, we did not have a populace that was largely on our side and we didn’t have much of a freaking goal, for that matter.
- The Soviets – They were there to add Afghanistan to their bloc. They would have run it just like they ran Poland and Ukraine. Here’s your dictator, and he will do what we tell him to do. America doesn’t want to take over Afghanistan, we want it to to be less of a shitty place, but we will leave as soon as possible.
- George W. Bush – If you are a muslim that didn’t want to kill Americans, George Bush could make you reconsider. He might not have wanted to take over Afghanistan, but I think he believed that they could all use a good dose of the good word. More importantly, that is the message that the man on the street in Afghanistan got from the missionaries that flocked to Afghanistan after the invasion. In Bush’s defense, I think he really believes that he had their best interests at heart, but no Muslim wants to have to hear about the inferiority of their religion from someone coming to help them. Obama physically looks more like them, he has a name that rings familiar with them, and he doesn’t say things like “we are on a crusade” and call these lunatics “jihadists.”
The key to “winning” in Afghanistan has ALWAYS been to win over the hearts and minds. Not to love the US, but to not fear the US long enough to spend the blood, money and sweat required to make the place work. I doubt that Karzai is the guy to do it, lord knows that he is as crooked as the day is long, but they elected the guy (more or less). We don’t have much choice in who we deal with. Shit, if Marion Barry can still get elected in DC, who are we to judge?
I have no idea if it will work. But I believe that if we do fail there, we know what the Taliban is capable of. They tortured women, gays, children and ruled by a fear that is right up there with the worst of the 20th century. They can not be allowed to regain control of that country. And maybe, just maybe, we can lay the groundwork in Afghanistan that the behavior of the Taliban is not tolerated. There were certainly Nazi’s in Germany in 1950, but each time one of them raised their heads, they were punished swiftly and severely. Perhaps Afghanistan can get this level of control with a stable government and a strong society. I don’t know, but I think that if anyone can pull this off, this is the man and this is the time.