Tonight at 8 PM Obama will be giving a speech at West Point to explain his administration’s plans for Afghanistan. We’ve already heard some details – he’s adding at least 30,000 more troops and plans to have deadlines, including a deadline for leaving by 2017.
The revised strategy for Afghanistan that President Obama will announce Tuesday is expected to focus new resources on training Afghan security forces and shoring up the central government, an approach certain to revive a debate about the possibilities and the limits of nation-building.
Republicans are already howling. Why? I’m not sure but it doesn’t really matter what Obama does, they would criticize it anyway. It’s going to take a while for the troops levels to build up, at least 6 months (you see now why Obama’s supposed dithering really didn’t make a difference here). So now we’re going to try nation-building in Afghanistan, the graveyard of empires.
Diplomats and officials involved in past nation-building efforts generally agree that the process works best when warring factions are ready to make peace. Elections, while important to lend legitimacy to a new government, should not be rushed — creating lasting institutions is more important. The international community must have realistic, if modest, goals. Regional experts need to be consulted, and neighboring countries should be brought on board.
And nation-building should be done primarily by the people of the country involved, with the outside world there to assist, diplomats said.
Above all, there must be resources.
“More manpower and more money produces better, faster results,” said former U.S. diplomat James F. Dobbins, now with the Rand Corp., who has had firsthand experience in Somalia, Haiti, Bosnia, Kosovo and Afghanistan. “There is a correlation between the commitment and the achievement.”
He added: “Lesson one was decisive force. Employ a force decisive enough and impressive enough to deter any violent resistance.”
All this says to me is that nation-building is extremely difficult and only works if you get the co-operation of the local populace. Do we have that? I’m pretty skeptical after 8 years of war there already. Of course, our alternative was pulling out of Afghanistan and leaving a failed state full of radicals. So instead, we’re staying and propping up the weak and corrupt Karzai government.
Here’s my question: is there any policy pronouncement that Obama can say tonight that will get your approval for staying in Afghanistan? What are you hoping to see from Obama tonight?