Castle 45- Biden 39
That is the result of the Public Policy Polling poll that they completed this week (as we all voted on last week). From the PPP blog:
Two major trends have shown up in both polls to give Castle the early advantage. The first is an overwhelming 52-23 lead with independents. That mirrors a national trend of strong Republican performance with that group, although Castle’s edge is particularly large. The second is that he wins over far more Democrats than Biden does Republicans. Castle has a 79-10 lead within his own party, while Biden is up just 65-20 in his. Castle is winning more support from people who approve of Obama than any other Republican Senate candidate we’ve polled on nationwide this year.
They still didn’t specifically poll O’Donnell, but:
Castle may get a bit of a challenge from Christine O’Donnell in the Republican primary because 30% of the party’s voters think that he’s too liberal. Compared to other Republican Senate candidates across the country Castle is unusually popular with Democrats, as 48% view him favorably, but also unusually unpopular with Republicans, just 61% of whom view him positively. It’s unusual for the gap in favorability for a politician between the two parties to be so small.
Poll has a MOE of 4.1% . Crosstabs (pdf) here.
Tags: Beau Biden, DE-Sen, Mike Castle, Polls
I think there’s a lot more danger in this poll for Castle than for Biden considering a significant chunk of Castle’s support is coming from Democrats.
Linc Chafee
Maybe Beau will run on his outstanding record of imprisoning innocent people for 1st Degree Murder before he then drops all charges. His office has only botched four 1st degree murder cases since February.
Why do we have to choose between the incompetent and the incontinent?
A1 – we all know that Capt. Biden was in Iraq for a year serving our country and was not running the AG’s office. You really need to get off that thread – it’s wearing thin and is about to break.
you can delegate authority but not responcibility.
The minute that Biden claims credit for anything the AG’s office did, he opens the door to having to explain why it is so bad. And he IS responsible. He decided who would do what while he was gone.
This will not hold for long:
David Plouffe has already said that the Dem will pound Castle on his down the line partisan voting record and he has never felt so much as a jab on that glass jaw, let alone a pounding on that issue. I for one am glad that Castle’s record will (at long last) be a topic of conversation by checked out journos like Allan Loudell and Ginger “she is no skank” Gibson.
MJ – Tell me one good reason that anybody should support Biden other than that he is not Mike Castle. For his AG record? No. For his service in the NG? No. For his last name? No. For his positions on national issues? Uh, tell me what they are.
That thread is getting thicker, not thinner.
A1,
Biden will have to fight to win the seat. If I have a choice between fake moderate Republican Mike Castle and generic Democrat, I’m voting generic Democrat.
David Plouffe has already said that the Dem will pound Castle on his down the line partisan voting record and he has never felt so much as a jab on that glass jaw, let alone a pounding on that issue.
This is what I’ve been saying all along. Not like this is easy or a slam dunk, but Mike Castle has never had to be accountable for a record that is way more party line than “moderate”.
As I said, UI, the only good reason for supporting Biden (D) is that he is not Mike Castle (R). I’d have to vote to retain the Democratic majority, but I ain’t happy about it.
No one has mentioned that all this is within the margin of error…
I can’t wait til they pull out the video of the old man on the floor of the House, right before the Recovery vote ended. He was one of the last to vote and the GOP leadership is all around him, putting the pressure on. Guess what he did? Voted against it.
He voted against kids and poor people being able to continue to get Medicaid.
Yup, can’t wait to see that video.
I remember when Mike Castle actually was sort of moderate. Once the NRSC got to him though, he knew he would have to tow the line or get no cash.
Doesn’t really matter any way I guess, send your money to Christine O’Donnell so she can run his ass into the ground during the primary and burn off some of his cash.
Oh, and Castle is Roman Catholic…. I don’t know if that’s “cool” with the current Republican party.
Someone should ask Christine O’Donnell whether Catholics go to heaven….
Wait, she’s Catholic too. Papist conspiracy????
Like a good Catholic, Christine won’t sleep with anyone til she’s married. Which means Mike Castle didn’t sleep with anyone til he was 53……………………………………………
Wrong, the poll was beyond the margin of error and the internals of the poll were sound.
I haven’t even looked at the internals yet, but David, you are happy with a 32 year state wide incumbent only getting 45% of the vote? Castle is basically the incumbent, and Biden is the erstwhile challenger. In any other race around the country 45% would send incumbents into a panic.
“Wrong, the poll was beyond the margin of error and the internals of the poll were sound.”
I think maybe you don’t understand how margin of error works…*hint* it applies to every percentage mentioned at the same time.
Right, Herb. So with a 4.1% MOE, Biden could be leading this race 43 to 41.
But math confuses our whackjob conservatives like David.
I think any poll right now is ho-hum, especially considering the fact that Beau hasn’t even announced.
I’m much more interested in how the messaging is polling
45% is a terrible number for Castle and it’s been pretty steady for a while. The fact that a significant chunk is coming from crossover Democrats should be worrying. Don’t you think the VP’s son will attract a lot of attention from the national party?