PPP: Carney Win Almost Guaranteed
While PPP polled the Delaware U.S. Senate race, they also polled the open U.S. House seat. Carney holds a commanding lead, and has somewhat low name recognition:
Former Lieutenant Governor John Carney leads announced Republican candidate Fred Cullis by an overwhelming 47-24 margin and holds a solid 44-32 lead against better known potential Republican candidate Charlie Copeland.
None of the candidates, including Carney, are particularly well known. Despite his campaign for Governor last year and tenure in statewide office 54% of voters have no opinion about Carney. Among those who do 27% view him favorably and 18% unfavorably. Copeland is a blank slate to 66% of voters and Cullis is to 87%.
I’d like to add here that despite all the talk of the “unbeatable” Mike Castle, the much more unknown John Carney gets the same level of support as the much better known Mike Castle. PPP goes on to add:
In what’s shaping up as a tough year for Democrats nationally, the Delaware House seat is as close to a sure thing as they have when it comes to pick up opportunities.
John Carney is probably the happiest man in Delaware today.
Tags: DE-AL, John Carney, PPP
Wait a second. Carney, after 8 years as Lt. Governor and a million-dollar campaign for Congress, can’t get to 50 against Fred Cullis? And this is supposed to be good news?
Ah, Anon, like most of your idiot conservative brethen, it appears you SUCK at reading comprehension. I mean seriously, it is no wonder you fools love Sarah Palin. You are as dumb as her.
That is the reason for the poll numbers. God. It simply boggles the mind at how stupid you are. I mean, the answer to your smear is right there in front of your face. Either you didn’t read it, or you did read it but posted your smear anyway (which makes you a liar) or you can’t read. Which is it?
That’s right DD. Carney’s numbers are as good or better than Castle but Castle has statewide recognition.
“Ah, Anon, like most of your idiot conservative brethen, it appears you SUCK at reading comprehension. I mean seriously, it is no wonder you fools love Sarah Palin. You are as dumb as her.”
Perhaps I interpreted anon’s comment incorrectly, but I assumed he/she was pointing out that Carney isn’t doing all that well when when you take into consideration his years in state office. His “overwhelming 47-24 margin” over Fred Cullis isn’t all that overwhelming, because Cullis is, for the most part, an unknown.
The “Anybody but Carney” vote is nearly invisible, but the competitive former LG will motivate his troops with comments similar to those of CS.
I love it. I love it. You’re comparing Castle’s numbers against Joseph R. Biden, III to Carney’s numbers against Fred Cullis! As an argument FOR Carney!
And then you’re defending Carney by pointing out that despite his 8 years in statewide office and his million-dollar campaign for Governor, he has made so little an impression on Delaware’s voters that he fails to break the 50% mark against a complete unknown.
You people amaze me.
This poll was done by a democratic-only polling firm – meaning all the polls they are hired to do are exclusive for democratic candidates and organizations; Dean Debnam (the CEO) is a puppet of the DCCC. Poll jumped the gun (and thereby sacrificed credibility) to take advantage of the lack of an announcement (yet) from the GOP candidate we should see in the general election.
I encourage you all to keep sending money to Cullis and Copeland. It will be well-spent for 35% or so that they’ll get. Just like last time.
I’m not comparing Cullis’s numbers or even Copeland’s numbers to anyone. I think Castle and Carney can be compared – both are statewide office holders running for open seats. Castle’s name recognition is much higher than Carney’s yet Castle is not doing much better.
I think the numbers for Copeland and Cullins are hard to interpret because of low name recognition. Carney’s numbers will improve with name recognition. Where will Castle’s go? He’s relying on cross-over votes on a non-nationalized election.
Yo, anon. Who’s lieutenant governor of Pennsylvania? No peeking. Who’s LG of Maryland?
For a guy in a low-profile office, Carney is extraordinarily well-known.
I think it is due to his years kicking in the NFL.
Don’t forget, it was that very same Copeland said in both the News Journal and on WDEL that we should drill for oil off Rehoboth… That is an albatross that will forever hang around his neck ….
Copeland can run, but he can’t run credibly. What a joke. Drill for oil off Rehoboth.. and three weeks later the price of gasoline drops to $1.40 a gallon because all those hedge funds holding the prices at $4.50, got dumped for cash. Talk about someone who jumps on every bandwagon passing by.. If you remember, that was just a few days after Palin was rattling “Drill, Baby, Drill”…
and speaking of Palin, I believe she is also considered to be the front runner as we speak. That just goes to show that the numbers for Carney today, although flattering, are really all about nothing… Palin running for president?… It may sound nice until you think of what the United States would be like with an idiot in control…
“If North Korea launches another missile… well, well, I’ll just quit. That’s what I’ll do. I’ll quit… There that will stop them…?
Poll numbers today matter not, simply because real people don’t really care.
So if PPP is a horribly biased librul poller, why do they keep releasing crappy numbers for Democratic candidates?
Because Democrat numbers are crappy.
How are copeland’s numbers not their own post? If you are one of the three or four out of ten people who’ve even heard of him, statistics say you probably do not like him.
The numbers are a sham, they knew what the final result would be as soon as they were hired to do the poll. Find out who hired them and you’ll find out why.
Marc, if the numbers are a sham, they are entirely credible. Carney has a track record in this state. Cullis is an unknown, cocky gasbag parroting the new ultra right. He’s marginalized on three fronts:
* Ego tripping based on nothing. Salesmen are good at this.
* Choosing to represent a fringe group
* A through and complete lack of experience or expertise
Read his position papers. Listen to him speak. There is no appeal, no future, and NO CONGRESSMAN here.
Cullis is just having a little fun until the real candidate announces
Please, tell us who the real candidate is. That’s a big Republican problem, besides Mike Castle there isn’t really anyone else.
PPP is a decent polling organization. I don’t care about the partisan nature of the poller as long as they release their internals.
Oh, right, I forgot, it’s somehow bad news for the Democrats when they’re ahead in a poll.
Johnny – personally I feel like throwing a party, and would be more inclined to do so if I thought that Carney would be a true voice for progressives. As it stands, at least he is more mainstream, and at least he doesn’t have his panties all bunched up over the typical conservative social hot buttons.
And – as to Cullis having fun … I can think of far better ways (that are also much less boring to the rest of us).
I would suggest that the numbers are off, simply because it’s fairly shocking that Cullis could do that well against Carney. I had never heard of Cullis until about a month ago, but obviously have been familiar with Carney for years. Carney’s name recognition is probably–no, certainly–much higher than the poll suggests.
I’m not worried Chris. I think we’re seeing generic Democrat vs generic Republican numbers right now. I don’t think many people are engaged in the race yet. Just remember, even Christine O’Donnell got 30-something % of the vote.
The real candidate is unknown to virtually everyone but there is national interest here – one can only assume the NRCC has been actively recruiting.
PPP hasn’t released their internals – where did they get their list? From the Del Dems?
Can I have some of what you’re smoking Marc? You’re telling me a virtual unknown Republican in Delaware is going to come in and take statewide office against a well-funded and well-known Democrat? Really?
UI, I think that Marc, and anyone investing their time and energy into Cullis, is smoking crack. Except I’m not sure what kind of high you might get with the Tea Party diatribe and the 9/12 ideologues. And I am really certain I don’t want to find out. Because I suspect it is the ‘morally superior’ kind.
You guys either misunderstood, or I misspoke – I said the real candidate is virtually unknown (meaning he hasn’t stepped forward yet and maybe a handful of players at the NRCC have an idea who he is at the moment). Not talking about Cullis AT ALL; that guy should not be running for Congress, maybe not even a local post – take a look at how unprofessional his site is, even moreso, his understanding of the political process. I’m not putting energy into him by any means. I think the far left is a joke, I think the tea baggers are a joke and I think the ron paulers are a joke… just an interesting race where I’d like to see a real candidate on the GOP side to make it fun to follow… then I call in my bets to Vegas.
Gotcha Marc. Agree completely. Sorry for th misunderstanding.