The 2010 62 District Strategy
The 62 District Strategy was a success in 2008, resulting in Democrats taking back the House and increasing their majority in the Senate. In 2004 in the Senate, we did not challenge Charlie Copeland or Liane Sorenson for their reelections. In 2006, we left Dori Connor coast to reelection without an opponent. In 2008, we ran candidates in all 10 Senate races and picked up 3 seats. Comparitively, in the House, in 2004, we left 11 Republicans unaccountable to the public (Lavelle (11), Spence (18), Roy (20), Miro (22), Oberle (24), Lofink (27), Wagner (31), Caulk (33), Buckworth (34), Ewing (35), and Lee (40). And then in 2006 we left 8 Republican seats unopposed (Maier (21), Miro again (22), Oberle again (24), Thornburg (29), Stone (32), Ewing again (35), Booth (37) and Lee again (40)). In 2008, we let 4 Republicans (Hudson (12), Manolakos (20), Outten (30) and Carey (36)) coast to victory, an definite improvement in recruiting over 2004 and 2006.
The premise is simple: never allow an office holder to be unopposed for reelection, for that is undemocratic and unDemocratic. The people should always be given a choice, and Democrats cannot make inroads into conservative areas without actually making an effort. As I said someone famous once sid, half of life is just showing up. And in politics, it is three-fourths. Thus, it is maddening whenever we fail as Democrats to contest a district seat.
But it is understandable why candidates are left unopposed: because sometimes finding candidates in districts in hard, especially when an incumbent is long established and has a substantial fundraising advantage, and especially when a certain district’s demographics favor conservatives or Republicans, for that simply means that aren’t many Democrats to chose from for a candidate.
And as we enter a difficult year for Democrats politically, there may be a tendency to conserve resources to protect vulnerabilities, thus in 2010 we could see us return to allowing 11 or more Republicans get off scott free. But to me that feels like we are turning the ball over at the 30 yard line on second down, and I am not talking about a fumble or an interception. I am talking about purposefully giving the ball to the opposing team because we don’t feel like playing offense this year. Makes me puke.
As we enter 2010, 11 Senate races are up, as well as the entire House. I am posting this now so we can begin recruiting, and so we can see which races could and will be competitive. The filing deadline is July 30, so we have time, but good campaigns take a lot of time.
THE SENATE
Democrats have a 15 to 6 majority. Republicans would have to net five seats to garner the 11 seats needed for a majority. Democrats are defending 8 of the 11 seats up for election this time around. The three Republicans running are Dori Connor, Joe Booth (who was elected in a special last year to replace the deceased Thurman Adams), and Cathy Cloutier. There is also a possible special election on the horizon if Colin Bonini actually runs and wins the State Treasurer race.
(1) HARRIS MCDOWELL III
Safe Democratic. McDowell’s only danger is if we Democrats ever decide to primary his ass. We had rumors early last year that Charles Potter was going to primary him. ‘Bulo and I prefer Tom Noyes aka Tommywonk. Either way, this is a Democratic seat.
(5) CATHY CLOUTIER
Tossup. This is one of ‘Bulo’s top targets in 2010. I will let him speak:
Cathy Cloutier has served for 12 years in the Delaware General Assembly, first filling out the remainder of her late husband Phil Cloutier’s 1997-98 House term, being reelected to the House in 1998, and then winning the Brandywine Hundred seat of retiring State Sen. Myrna Bair in 2000. Virtually nobody begrudged giving Cloutier the chance to succeed Phil, who was the kind of non-partisan citizen-legislator who can only be found in the Newark area (Liane Sorenson/Terry Schooley) anymore, and who died far too young. […]
[Twelve] years into her political career, Cathy Cloutier is still a deer in the headlights[, with zero legislative accomplishments to her name]. […]
The latest registration figures show the district with 12,133 D’s, 9414 R’s, and 6505 I’s. And, if anything, the I’s are trending more D than R in this district now, a distinct change from the way things were right after reapportionment. The numbers get more daunting for the R’s by the month, and the number of people who remember Phil Cloutier drop every month. By the 2010 election, the registration plurality of D’s over R’s should be well over 3000. The registration margin when Cloutier last ran in 2006 was roughly 1500.
By now, the Democratic tilt in Brandywine Hundred has been well-documented, with Bryon Short, Dennis E. Williams, and Mike Katz winning long-time Rethug strongholds. Unknown, underfunded, but energetic Pat Morrison almost unseated Cloutier in 2006. First-time candidate Morrison got 47.4% of the vote, and would have won if suddenly-chivalrous union leaders had not fallen for Cloutier’s Damsel in Distress act. Unfortunately, Pat will not be able to run in 2010. If she did, she would win.
Cloutier only won with 52% in 2006. Is Bryon Short ready to move up? [Update]: Bulo is bullish on this race, and says in the comments below that any credible Dem other than Short can win this race. I am not so sure, but we will see.
(7) PATTY BLEVINS
Safe Democratic. The new Majority Leader won with 73%.
(8) DAVID SOKOLA
Lean Democratic. I only say that because Sokola won with 57% in 2006, over now Representative Mike Ramone.
(9) KAREN PETERSON
Safe Democratic. The Progressive champion was unopposed in 2006.
(12) DORI CONNOR
Safe Republican. Connor was unopposed in 2006 and is in good with the unions. She ain’t goin anywhere unless State Rep. Valerie Longhurst runs.
(13) DAVID McBRIDE
Safe Democratic. Same with McBride. [Update]: As pointed out below in the comments, McBride is vulnerable to a credible primary challenge since rumor has it he no longer even lives in the district.
(14) BRUCE ENNIS
Lean Democratic. Ennis seems well suited for his district, but this will be his first race for reelection.
(15) NANCY COOK
Safe Democratic. Cook was unopposed last time.
(19) JOE BOOTH
Lean Republican. Booth won the special election to replace Thurman Adams last year with 63% of the vote. That is an impressive margin and probably a correct one for his district. I only consider this a “lean” race rather than a safe one because this will be Booth’s first run for reelection in a general election, so it may be more competitive. But not likely.
(20) GEORGE BUNTING
Safe Democratic. That is, if Bunting runs for reelection. He has had health issues recently that may make that a question. Republican County Councilman George Cole would make this race a tossup to “lean Republican” if Bunting retires.
In the Senate this year, I do not see any Senator running for reelection losing. The only competitive race I see is against Cathy Cloutier, and I think she will hold on because I do not see Bryon Short running. He is needed more in the House, as you will see below….
THE HOUSE
The Democrats have a 24-17 majority. The GOP would need to win 4 seats (3 if they get Atkins to rejoin their caucus and run as a Republican) to gain back the majority. However, the GOP’s hopes are so far hampered by three retirements of Carey, Oberle and Thornburg, two of which (Oberle and Thornburg) are in Democratic leaning districts where the incumbent Republican barely won in 2008.
(1) DENNIS P. WILLIAMS
Safe Democratic. Williams won with 91% in 2008.
(2) HAZEL PLANT
Safe Democratic. Reelected with 94% of the vote in 2008. [Update]: Bulo thinks retirement is a possibility here given her recent health issues. Either way though, it is a safe Dem seat.
(3) HELENE KEELEY
Safe Democratic. Keeley was unopposed in 2008.
(4) GERALD BRADY
Safe Democratic. Brady won with 73% of the vote against Tyler Nixon last time.
(5) MELANIE GEORGE MARSHALL
Safe Democratic. Marshall was unopposed last time.
(6) TOM KOVACH
Tossup. Kovach won the special election last December against Mike Migliore with 51%, or by 73 votes. This will be a very competitive race as the 6th District is a strong Democratic district, and Kovach only won because Democrats were unmotivated to vote. To show you how Democratic this district is, 46% of the voters are Democrats, while only 29% are Republicans. But Tom Kovach may be the type of Republican to hold it, as he has been voting moderate so far. And then there is also a possibility that Kovach runs for Congress, and if that is the case, this seat will go back to the Democrats.
(7) BRYON SHORT
Lean Democratic. Short won the seat in a special election in 2007. He won reelection with 59% of the vote. But until he gets another landslide under his belt in this swing district, I cannot consider it safe.
(8) QUINTON JOHNSON
Safe Democratic. Johnson won reelection with 57% [Update]: Bulo thinks this could be a vulnerable seat in an Republican year. I would have to know who the Republican is before I change my ranking.
(9) RICHARD CATHCART
Lean Republican. Cathcart keeps holding on, surviving two Democratic wave years with just over 50% of the vote. I am not taking the bait this time, but ‘Bulo thinks Cathcart remains vulnerable to candidate not named Rebecca Walker. [Update]: Geek says below in the comments that Ms. Walker is running again and is optimistic on her chances. We will see. I am of the mindset that if you couldn’t get it done in two Democratic wave elections you will not get it down in a favorable Republican year.
(10) DENNIS E. WILLIAMS
Tossup. The other Dennis Williams barely won with 50.4% over longtime Bob Valihura. Will Valihura seek a rematch to reclaim his seat?
(11) GREG LAVELLE
Lean Republican. Lavelle won reelection with 63% of the vote in 2008. He won with 58% in 2006. He is tightening his hold on the district. The only way this race because competitive is if Lavelle runs for Congress, which is a possibility. Read ‘Bulo’s analysis of our prospects against Lavelle here. He is more optimistic than I.
(12) DEBORAH HUDSON
Safe Republican. She has been unopposed three times in the last 10 years, all the way back to when she was a Capano. When she is challenged, she gets over 60% of the vote.
(13) JOHN MITCHELL
Safe Democratic. Mitchell was unopposed last year, just like his predecessor Van Sant was unopposed whenever he ran for reelection.
(14) PETER SCHWARTZKOPF
Safe Democratic. The Majority Leader was unopposed.
(15) VALERIE LONGHURST
Safe Democratic. Longhurst was unopposed in 2008.
(16) JAMES JOHNSON
Safe Democratic. Johnson was unopposed in 2008 too. Yeah, the GOP has their own problems with a 62 District Strategy. But I don’t care about that.
(17) MICHAEL MULROONEY
Safe Democratic. Mulrooney won reelection last time with 83%.
(18) MICHAEL BARBIERI
Tossup. Barbieri defeated Republican Speaker Terry Spence on his second attempt in 2008, so the GOP will want some revenge. Barbieri garnered 52% in 08, so this race will be competitive. [Update]: Bulo is more optimistic than I at the chances Barbieri can keep this seat. I guess it will have to depend on who the GOP runs.
(19) BOB GILLIGAN
Lean Democratic. Speaker Gilligan won with 78%, but you would think the GOP will be gunning for him like we went after Spence and Cathcart over the last four years.
(20) NICK MANOLAKOS
Safe Republican. Manolakos was not challenged by the Democratic Party last time, but instead by the Blue Enigma Party. That’s embarrassing. Needless to say Manolakos coasted to reelection.
(21) MICHAEL RAMONE
Tossup. Read ‘Bulo’s fine analysis here. If we find a credible candidate without the drama and indecision of the Creedon campaign in 2008, we can win this back, given the district’s demographics and history.
(22) JOSEPH MIRO
Safe Republican. Miro won reelection with 66% of the vote. [Update]: Paul in the comments says there is a candidate preparing to run (he didn’t mention a name) that will have more time and money this time than our own beloved Rebecca Young had in her race last time. I hope so.
(23) TERRY SCHOOLEY
Safe Democratic. Schooley won with 75% last time.
(24) BILL OBERLE, JR.
Leans Democratic. Yeah, ‘Bulo called it. Oberle represented this district for years as the last of the great Northeastern liberal Republicans. When was the last time you heard a Republican be pro-labor and pro-gay rights? He had to be, as his district tilts heavily Democratic, as voter registration rolls show there are 6,597 Democrats, 2,993 Republicans and 3,175 registered in other parties or no party at all. Now that Oberle is retiring, I have to favor the Democrat is this race at the outset. It is the Democratic Party’s strongest chance for a pickup this year. [Update]: Paul also says there is a Democratic candidate preparing HER run. I wonder who it is?
(25) JOHN KOWALKO
Safe Democratic. Progressive Champion and Delaware Liberal commenter John Kowalko won reelection with 73% of the vote in 2008.
(26) JOHN VIOLA
Safe Democratic. Viola won with 80% of the vote last time.
(27) EARL JAQUES
Tossup. Jaques lost to Lofink by 60 votes in 2006. In 2008, Jaques won by 46, if you combine Lofink’s two ballot positions (he was the candidate for both the Republican and Working Families Party). Lofink is not running again. I think Jaques will be able to retain the seat, especially now that Lofink is gone, but you still have to think this is a tossup given the close elections over the last four year.s
(28) BILL CARSON
Safe Democratic. Carson was unopposed last time.
(29) PAM THORNBURG
Tossup. Thornburg is retiring. She says it is because she is to be the Administrator of the Delaware Farm Bureau. I think it is because she barely won reelection with 50.2% of the vote, after a recount of absentee ballots gave her the victory. This district has a more even voter registration, with 7,192 registered as Democrats, 5,687 as Republicans and 4,302 as other. Republican Lincoln Willis has declared. Former Mayor of Wyoming Hans Riegle (R) is also running, setting up a “Resolute Determination” v. “Delaware Politics” primary. ’08 Democratic nominee Charles “Trey” Paradee and a number of other Democrats are considering the race as well. Read Bulo’s analysis here.
(30) WILLIAM OUTTEN
Safe Republican. Outten was unopposed in 08.
(31) DARRYL SCOTT
Lean Democratic. Scott forcibly retired double dipper Nancy Wagner in 2008, winning with 53% of the vote. Nancy Wagner is avoiding a rematch and is instead running for Dover Mayor. [Update]: Bulo thinks this should be a tossup in a favorable Republican year. Again, I will have to see who the GOP runs.
(32) BRAD BENNETT
Lean Democratic. With all our rookies, you have to say that their first race for reelection is a competitive one, especially if they represent a competitive or conservative district. According to the latest voter registration totals, there are 5,469 Democrats, 3,365 Republicans and 3,064 Others. Bennett won last time with 57%.
(33) ROBERT WALLS
Lean Democratic. Walls was first elected in 2006, and he was reelected with 54%, which would point to a competitive race this time around. [Update]: Bulo rates this a tossup, and it could be depending on who the GOP runs.
(34) DONALD BLAKEY
Safe Republican. Blakely won with 61% last time.
(35) DAVE WILSON
Lean Republican. I only say “lean” because this is Wilson’s first campaign for reelection. He was elected with 61%, so he should be safe.
(36) GEORGE CAREY
Lean Republican. Carey is retiring, but given the nature of this district in what will be a Republican year, you have to say this seat favors whatever Republican runs. The district lies along the Delaware Bay on the eastern side of Sussex County. It reaches from Milford to Route 9, and Route 113 serves as its western boundary. Voter rolls say there are 6,940 Democrats, 5,899 Republicans and 3,932 others. 36th District Committee Chairman Emory West says state archivist Russ McCabe (D) and former Sussex County Councilman Lynn Rogers (d) are considering running. The committee is meeting this month to discuss possible candidates.
I have not heard anything about a Republican running. Dave Burris decided against a run, shockingly enough. But still, given the demographics, history and nature of the 2010 election, you have to favor the Republican here. But we will see.
(37) RUTH BRIGGS KING
Tossup. King just won election last year in the special to replace Booth, who won election in his own right to replace Thurman Adams. She won with 53%. Just like Short up north, you have to consider a close race in a special to be a competitive one in the general, especially with even registration numbers (5,584 D, 5,295 R, 3,111 O). I haven’t heard if Robinson will seek a rematch.
(38) GERALD HOCKER
Safe Republican. I see sign on the way to my parent’s house that says Hocker for Governor. I wonder…. Needless to say, Hocker is safe (he won with 72%) until he runs for Governor, then he will be toast.
(39) DANIEL SHORT
Safe Republican. Short won with 69% last time.
(40) BIFF LEE
Lean Republican. After finally being challenged after 2 elections of running unopposed, Lee won with 59%. I don’t know about you, but that seems low to me. [Update]: And an anon commenter says Barb Hudson (D) is back for more this time.
(41) JOHN ATKINS
Safe Republican. I guarantee you Atkins is going back to the GOP, and he will win reelection.
So, I see a net gain of 2 seats (including the Atkins party switch) for the Republicans at this point, not enough to win back the majority, but enough to make it close at 22-19. Of the tossups, Democrats are defending Jaques (27th), Williams (10th) and Barbieri (18th), while Republicans are defending the open seats in the 24th and the 29th, as well as King (37th), Ramone (21st), and Kovach (6th). I think all three of the latter retain their seats, and Democrats will win the 24th and the Republicans will retain the 29th. Republicans will gain two seats in defeating Dennis E. Williams and Michael Barbieri, if I had to guess today. Jaques will win reelection in the 27th, this time by a more comfortable margin.
The fear down here in Seaford for Democrats is that Short will move to the Senate to replace Venables (D – Mars) when he retires. Then it will be a solid Republican Senate district, including part of Seaford and all of Laurel. A Republican can then easily take over the 39th, though demographically, the races around here should be closer given the minority population. But if they didn’t get out to vote for Obama, they aren’t coming in an off year. I think Short could be knocked down to 59% with a decent candidate (2008 candidate was weak), but it is still not enough and he is well entrenched, with tons of local ties and friends.
Jacques has distinguished himself as a dedicated public servant. I have to admit that I was skeptical when he was elected, but he seems to be doing everything right in Dover.
Rebecca Walker will be running and is hoping that the third time is the charm. She will have some feisty young people by her side this time and hopefully will cut back some of her other commitments during this campaign.
Finally, my friend John Kowalko will cruise to victory. David Anderson has promised to campaign hard against him, I say “bring it”. The bigger threat may be from the left. John has raised hackles on the D side of the aisle (see Somnambulo, El) and has had insinuations cast in his direction from the power that be. I hope that that doesn’t happen, but if it does, look for some big fundraising from me.
The 22nd RD has a Democratic candidate working on his campaign, with MANY MONTHS more than Rebecca had in 2008. On a shoestring and two months, Rebecca got 34% against incumbent Miro.
The 24th RD has a Democratic candidate working on her campaign. Again, a good number of months of preparation.
Why does being unopposed last time automatically make the seat safe this time around?
GREAT stuff, DD, and lotsa fun.
Here’s where we differ, if at times, only by degrees:
SENATE:
5th SD: You don’t need Bryon Short to move up. One of his uber-volunteers could beat Cloutier at this point. Besides, wouldn’t want to risk the 7th RD w/o Short.
12th SD: The registration #’s are brutal for R’s. A credible D could win. Word is that Longhurst is staying put in the House, but still a possibility.
13th SD: You’re right, but a credible D SHOULD challenge McBride, who doesn’t actually live even close to his district any more. Newspaper should investigate. Primary result might surprise.
14th SD: Ennis is safe. Not even close.
19th SD: Booth is safe. Not competitive.
20th SD: With or w/o Bunting, this could be a competitive district. I think odds are less than 50-50 that Bunting runs due to health, and he’s not a shoo-in even if he does. No D in Sussex, other than Schwartzkopf, is.
HOUSE:
2nd RD: Hazel Plant has missed so much time due to health issues, it’s time for her to retire. Will stay D, but likely not with Plant.
8th RD: I’d put this at a lean D. The type of seat that could flip in a strong R year.
18th RD: This is a lean D. Barbieri knocked off the House Speaker, not just any old Rethug. The R’s will have to recruit a very credible challenger to have a chance here.
19th RD: Solid D. Numbers aren’t there for a credible R challenger. Big labor presence in district as well.
24th RD: Solid D unless Oberle changes his mind. Not sure the Rethugs will even contest it.
26th and 28th RDs: Agree with you, but Viola and Carson are perhaps the two least distinguished members of the D caucus. Talk about just collecting a pay check! It’d be nice if someone who was, um, dedicated to public service primaried these two freeloaders.
31st RD: I’d rate this a tossup based on the likelihood that this could be an R year. Scott is doing a nice job, but I’m not sure that people in his district feel that he is ‘one of them’. Has his work cut out.
33rd RD: Also a tossup. Walls has basically won two coin flips. Could lose in an R year.
35th RD: Safe R.
37th: Leans R. Again because it looks like an R year.
Check with me in a few months, maybe the landscape changes. And, of course, recruitment is everything. I hope that the D’s remain committed to a 62-district strategy. I fear that they are more likely to try to circle the wagons around vulnerable incumbents. That would be a huge mistake. You can’t simply play defense.
In the 40th, Barb Hudson (D) is back again to run against Lee.
Herb, I write this post not yet knowing if either party will find a credible challenger in a race they left unopposed last time. So unless I know a credible challenger is already running, if you were unopposed last time you are safe this time. But what usually happens when I write this post every few months is that someone with some inside knowledge, like Bulo or Paul or Geek, will give us a heads up.
Thanks anon.
“Comment by phil on 19 October 2009 at 12:18 pm:
It looks like the Sussex GOP has decided to offer up another sacrifice onto the altar of Pete Schwartzkopf. Chris Weeks. Don’t know anything about him.”
Weeks is with Becker Morgan and former local Chamber president.
& don’t take my word … visit http://www.barbhudson.com
The 24th has more than one Democratic candidate. I’m waiting to see if more come forward since it is the most likely D pickup.
These may be my favorite threads — thanks DD!
After hearing for quite while that Hazel Plant would be retiring due to her health issues, I am now hearing that she’ll run. There was much speculation that Stephanie Bolden would go for that seat, but she too has been having health issues and I do not see her just challenging Hazel Plant.
That district really needs someone to represent them. Hazel’s too infirm, and Bolden is an operator in the mold of Herman the Lesser. A legit community organizer-type would likely win in a primary.
Does Cassandra live in that district?
I’m saying again, I don’t think Cathy Cloutier is a cinch to beat. The district isn’t voting a straight ticket, by any means, and I don’t think any Dem is safe in North Wilmington, even incumbents, unless we can generate a little more excitement higher up the ticket. I predict, unless we really build a fire under an opponent for Castle, the Dems will vote don’t fix it/don’t turn out and we could be behind the eight-ball again.
I agree with you re Cathy Cloutier.
Great post & comments. Reading this gives you more news and analyis than reading the NJ for two years.
I live in Cloutier’s district and I agree with previous comments. Cathy is very popular up here.
A first time opponent with no previous political experience got 47% against her. The numbers in the district have gotten much worse for her in the past 4 years, and the people who remember Phil have dwindled. She may be ‘popular’ with a few people, but she’s an endangered species. That is, IF the D’s decide to contest the seat.
Yeah, but Bulo, that was in 2006, a Democratic wave landslide year where Mike Castle himself was held to 56% of the vote against a no name lawyer named Dennis Spivak, where a no named accountant whose name I forget because he was so unforgettable nearly defeated Tom Wagner. Demographics may have gotten worse, but so has the political environment, which cancels out the demographics.
Yes, but in the intervening 4 years, the Democratic margin in the district has doubled. Cloutier has been, if anything, less visible than she was previously. She doesn’t have Gerry Fulcher on the radio every day blasting her opponent, she may not have the labor support that just nudged her over the finish line last time, either. She has no legislative accomplishments to speak of, and the cachet for being ‘Phil’s widow’ has long since faded.
The key will be recruiting a credible opponent. I stand by my prediction that any credible opponent beats her. After all, it could be less of an anti-Democratic year than an anti-incumbent year, and Cloutier has brought nothing to the table to address the state’s problems. Hey, I like her personally. But she really is a backbencher, and the district is likely looking for an upgrade.
Cassandra does not live in Plant’s district. And while Boulden can be a little old school for my taste, she is definitely not in the league of Herman the Lesser. If anything just because she’s not batshit crazy.
One set of rumors I hear (and I want to be really clear that these are *rumors*) is that Plant wants one of her sons to take over the seat she is currently in. NOW you can start with the comparisons to Herman the Lesser.
El Som, you misread the district. Being a “backbencher” has never hurt any politician ANYWHERE, and I think you’d have trouble making that label stick. Cathy has sponsored exactly the kind of middle moderate bills that everyone loves. And Pat may have been a first time candidate, but she was an awesome shoeleather one, and that’s what counts.
If you have suggestions for this “credible” opponent, email me. You know where I am.
“Reading this gives you more news and analyis than reading the NJ for two years”
That’s a pretty low bar to set Jason…My 5 year old has magazines that give me more than the News Journal has the past two years 🙂
And they’re illustrated 🙂
And if I’m in a real lazy mood, she can read them to me
2Oth Senate- if Bunting doesnt run you mention Councilman Cole? What about Rep. Hocker? Hocker wins in a landslide, not Cole, if Bunting retires
In the 37th RD, word is that Robinson will not run, unfortunately. Besides, Ruth Briggs King is doing lots right. She is very accessible, and has come out on the right side (against) the Lingo-Townsend project across from the Cape HS just outside of Lewes, joining up with a wildly populist surge against the project. Finally, she is a very sharp politician and excellent campaigner. Even without knowing who her opponent will be, I think she wins easily.
On Atkins, I don’t see him burying the hatchet and switching back to the GOP. Down here, a Conservative can operate just fine in either party, especially Atkins, who knows how to champion populist causes and, knows how to campaign. Interestingly, Schwartzkopf played an important role in Atkins coming over to the Dems. Atkins owes him!
Like Perry, I don’t see Atkins switching back to the GOP. And as we’ve seen with Adams and Venables, conservatives feel fairly comfortable in the Democratic party.
True, Anon. Hocker will win that in a landslide too. But I really do wonder if he is running for Governor.
Yes, Perry, but Atkins is a pure evil asshole who has no problems stabbing people in the back or slapping them across their face. If he doesn’t switch before the election he will definitely after the election if the GOP wins back the majority.
Brooke: I don’t misread the district. I know it real well. If Cathy is so well-liked and so popular, she wouldn’t have been so vulnerable in 2006. And Cathy and shoeleather don’t belong in the same sentence, plus she’s 4 years older now. I look at this district both empirically and experientially, as opposed to anecdotally. Just b/c a couple of people in this thread like Cathy, that in no way paints a picture of her vulnerability. As to names, Bryon Short knows them, and HE can share them with you. If one of them runs, Cloutier’s toast.
As to Hocker, I can’t imagine him running for governor. A lot of these guys like to float their names out there, but he’s not a guy who is gonna run up and down the state campaigning. At best, he’s the 2012 version of the 2008 Bill Lee. Depending on district boundaries, I COULD see Hocker running for Bunting’s seat if George Howard retires, and Cole running for Hocker’s rep seat.
I guarantee you Atkins is going back to the GOP, and he will win reelection.
I wonder how Schwartzkopf will feel if that happens.
Anybody seen the movie blind side?
PAT was the shoeleather candidate, El Som. She ran a great campaign, novice or not. I think she knocked every door, and listened. That’s why she came so close, that and the weather, politically, that year.
I say again, I think you misread the district. I don’t think the district likes activists, of any stripe. I don’t think they’re particularly ideological voters. I think ALL our campaigns that run on ideology flame out, and I think Cathy hasn’t annoyed anyone. That’s a winner, in a Delaware race, and even if you hate it, you should be able to recognize it.
Empirically and experientially, lol. I don’t get my info on this district from a blog comments page, and you know it. You may not think much of my intellect, bro, but I do. 😀
Brooke: Do you WILLFULLY misread my posts? My point, obvious to anyone with a brain, is that any D candidate will outwork Cathy in the shoe leather department. If those who I think would beat Cathy decide to run, they SHOWED via the work they did in Bryon’s last campaign, that they might even outwork Pat.
I’m not proposing a liberal activist per se, never did, SHOW me where I did. But someone who worked real hard in a campaign or two and knocked on thousands of doors sure has a couple of legs up on Cathy. But don’t let it get in the way of distorting what I wrote.
Pat was great, but Cloutier had name recognition, organization, and people at the polls on election day. But I hope you’re right, el som.
Temper, temper, El Som. If we’re going to start in on reading comprehension critiques, it can’t go anywhere pretty. 😀
I would hope any of our candidates would not repeat the mistakes made by NUMEROUS previous candidates for office in this area. Those would include, resting on imaginary laurels, running strongly ideological campaigns, failing to run in every ED, making personal attacks on the opposition, and failing to promptly return contacts, just to name a few. I’m pleased that we’re developing a little more smarts in campaigning, around here, but I thought Mike ran a great campaign in the special against Kovach, and he didn’t win, and we won in the 10th due to union support… I sure hope that man is kissing babies now.
My opinion differs from yours. Well, it happens. 😀
Seriously, Brooke, I’m sick of your willful misreadings of what I write. Thread after thread. Your emoticons aside, if you’ve got unresolved issues with me, take them offline.
Each time you respond, you toss more bleep up on the wall. This time, this:
“Those would include, resting on imaginary laurels, running strongly ideological campaigns, failing to run in every ED, making personal attacks on the opposition, and failing to promptly return contacts, just to name a few.”
What does that have to do with the Senate seat? The issue is winning Cloutier’s senate seat. You are a committee member and, as such, also a member of the Brandywine Area Democrats. What are you and they doing to recruit the best possible candidate to run in that district? Do you support Cloutier? If so, you don’t belong on a Democratic committee. If not, stop trying to make excuses for her, and help identify the strongest possible opponent.
Come to think of it, even your critique of ‘strongly ideological campaigns’ makes little sense. Pat’s campaign was (refreshingly) a strongly ideological one, and she almost won. Even with all the ‘advantages’ that anonone cited, Cloutier only got 52%. And the Democratic registration plurality in her district has doubled since then.
The Ds in Brandywine Hundred have a choice: Either go the way of Marti Dennison (who basically enabled Bill Oberle to have a free ride in a strongly-D district), or go out and win a seat that should be rightfully theirs.
If they don’t, don’t come back here with weak excuses.
After 140 years of owning the Senate district now held by Cloutier, GOP lost its stranglehold when Myrna Bair retired. Bill McGlinchey got 48 pct in ’00. Can’t minimize this on GOP’s post-Katrina ills. Cloutier skated free of challenge in ’02, but Pat Morrison hit 47½% in ’06. Som is right. Cloutier and Hazel have spent the last decade as the two most clueless barnacles in the GA — unlike other surviving spouses [Cook and Connor] who have developed into significant players — and could be retired by challengers who have focus, communication skills and preexisting community presence.
I’m on a Democratic Committee, not a press gang. When I say, “Tell me who you have” I’m not asking for a coy response. *I* will not run for this seat. No one else has told me they will. Maybe it takes a certain amount of crazy to run as a D in Brandywine Hundred, but there are kinds of crazy that are more electable than others, and, frankly, if I knew someone with that kind of crazy who’d run against Cathy, I’d do my damndest to get them elected. Until that person surfaces, I say, it doesn’t look so easy to beat her.
ATKINS ISN’T GOING ANYWHERE.
Now Now Bulo and Brooke, can’t we Dems just get along?
Delaware Dem,
Hocker run for Gov.?
Where do you dream this stuff up?
I didn’t dream it up, I saw a Hocker for Governor sign in Ocean View.
It is the committee or, in the case of a Senate district, committees responsible for candidate recruitment. Waiting for a candidate to fall out of the sky is NOT candidate recruitment. Bryon Short knows full well who these prospective candidates are. Whether he or anyone else has talked to them, or encouraged them as many of us did for Bryon, I don’t know. Maybe, now that he’s elected, he’s in the ‘I have to work with Cathy, therefore I’m not going to help the Party find anybody’ mode. I don’t know.
I DO know that I wrote the article about Cloutier last April, and that a lot of people have read it since then. I stressed the importance of recruiting a credible candidate against Cloutier, and that a credible candidate would likely win.
If the committee(s) have done nothing since then, then Brooke is right, it will be more difficult, but by no means impossible, to defeat Cloutier. And it will be the fault of those committee members and elected officials who have done nothing to actively identify and recruit prospective candidates.
Oh, I gotcha. There is also a sign on the corner that says “Royal Farm opening summer of 2009”
It aint happenin’
Shaun Fink is NOT running in the 41st. Instead, he joins the CRI as Executive Vice President.