Do Delaware Democrats Have A Plan B?
We are now more than halfway through the month of January and there is still no announced Democratic candidate for the U.S. Senate seat currently held by Ted Kaufman. How much longer do we have to wait? If Beau Biden isn’t planning to run he’s really putting the Democratic candidate at a disadvantage, Castle has been raising money since October.
So, let’s read the tea leaves.
Factors leaning against a Beau Biden run for Senate:
– Dr. Bradley child molestation case
– Panicked Democratic mood right now
– The long time with no announcement
Factors leaning towards a Beau Biden run for Senate:
– The long time with no announcement makes it difficult for another Democrat to get into the race
– The sense of inevitability
So, what do you think – will Beau run? If he doesn’t run, who will?
Tags: Beau Biden, DE-Sen
The pendulum is swinging to his disadvantage. Being that he is a 100% political animal he will not chance the run.
Seriously, if he’s scared to run right now – good riddance. I don’t want another weak-kneed Democrat.
Apparently, the Dem plan B is always the same:
1) Unfurl white flag.
2) Wave rapidly.
Karen Weldin Stewart for Senator!
What difference does Plan B make? If Beau doesn’t run, Castle will win anyway, no matter whom his opponent may be.
Beau is still a cipher. To some extent that is understandable, because an AG is not supposed to have a high partisan profile.
But right now Beau is just a blank slate where you can project your best hopes or your worst fears. Neither have any basis until Beau actually starts taking some high-profile stands on issues.
Now that the Dem wave is weakening, Beau will no longer be able to win with a bland feelgood campaign, which is what I think he was counting on. He’ll actually have to enunciate some strong Democratic positions, and:
1. Draw a contrast between himself and Castle.
2. Land numerous punches on Castle.
I don’t think Beau can do either one of these. If Beau runs a centrist campaign, Castle wins.
But if Beau comes out as a fire-breathing populist progressive, I’ll be happy to be wrong.
Federal offices in Delaware are won by candidates who run right down the middle, who win because the other party has agreed to get out of the way.
Frankly I would LOVE to see Castle contested by an actual strong Democrat, while Castle is forced to defend Republican positions and his vote.
Having said that Biden would not chance the run due to the political pendulum not favoring a democrat right now i would suggest to him that his chances may be better than they appear. I think the average voter was uncomfortable with the super majority. Now that that’s gone the pendulum may slow especially if the dems don’t try and pull anything tricky before sen. elect Brown gets to washington.
I think the average voter was uncomfortable with the super majority.
An unfounded fear, as it turns out.
“right now Beau is just a blank slate where you can project your best hopes or your worst fears. Neither have any basis until Beau actually starts taking some high-profile stands on issues.”
Can being a blank slate really be a good thing for a guy who’s what, 42 years old and has a resume so thin? Should we really have to wonder what the guy stands for, besides being against child molestation? Let’s hope that this scares him off for good, because I can’t see the benefit of electing someone who has next to no executive experience just because he’s handsome and his father once held the seat. All the other guys on the “Democratic bench” have earned their spots there. Can anyone honestly say Beau has done the same?
I can’t see the benefit of electing someone who has next to no executive experience
Senator is not an executive position.
Let me just put this to rest for you and tell you that Beau is not running, leave him alone, and go look at the farm team. He’ll be back, all the stronger for it…now run along–spit spot.
Here’s an idea, Beau runs a primary against Tom Carper in 2 years to oust him from the Senate.
I can dream, can’t I?
So who is the bench?
Ted Kaufman
Chris Coons
Matt Denn
Karen Weldin Stewart
Pete Schwartzkopf
… uhh … anyone else?
“Senator is not an executive position.”
Yeah? So? How many senators get elected without any? And does anyone run bragging of its lack? That’s a pretty tepid rejoinder.
IMHO — Recruit Kaufman (I know, I know, he says he doesn’t want to run)…but he is liked, the loss isn’t as devastating, he’s a gracious loser w/ no ill will to your party or damage to those who really will be capable and probably welcome in a few years. Got it? No charge.
It is time for him to make and announce his decision. He owes the Party that after Aunt Bea deferred to Joe’s wishes and named a placeholder (albeit a good one) instead of John Carney.
FWIW, Matt Denn is my first, second and third choice. He’d definitely plant a burr under Castle’s saddle.
I agree that BB needs to put up or shut up. Decide already. Further delaying hurts your party, further. Man up, Beau! (I hope that I’m not pissing off UI with this genderizing 🙂
I agree that TK, CC, and MD are top of list plan B candidates, and I would work for any of them.
If BB finally announces that he isn’t running for US Senate (and instead runs for AG), then it is worth fully exploring Carney shifting to the US Senate Race, and having Coons or Denn run for US Rep (while I think that Ted Kaufman has been an incredibly good US Senator, I tend to believe his stated firm desire to NOT run–he has gone this long without campaigning as a candidate, why start now?).
I can see TK being ‘arm-twisted’ if it means a D seat in the Senate (if BB announces that he’ll run for AG, and Carney remains running for US House).
I can’t see this working to shift a House seat from R to D (if BB announces that he’ll run for AG, and Carney shifts to run for US Senate).
Coons and Denn are the two guys who would like to move up to governor, and you can probably add Carney to that list — as his party backers never tire of reminding me, “He spent 16 years preparing to be governor.”
If either one makes it, he would probably be able to win a Senate election pretty easily.
Paul: Carney CAN NOT switch races and expect anyone to take him seriously. Please put this stupid idea to rest.
Kaufman is not running for anything; he’s done by this time next year. KWS has to thank her lucky stars she got this far; the party could and would scuttle her if she tried to run for anything else. And Schwartzkopf is probably more interested in becoming head of security at Del Pointe than in running for higher office.
How deep a bench do you think the party needs? We have 24 years of future governors there. When one of them figures out that’s too long to wait, we’ll have a Senate candidate. And once Mike Castle retires, the GOP has nobody who can defeat any of them.
In time El, but Denn needs a bit more finish on some projects. Like I said, a bit more “done that”, on the resume, before we send ’em up to do nothing. I want my state’s worth first, before they begin to campaign again on the taxpayer’s clock!!!!
Geezer–I agree that on the surface Carney switching to run for US Senate is silly, but so is having no one declare until this point due to deference to Beau, and then having Beau, EVENTUALLY say, “psyche–I’m don’t want to run for US Senate.”
In this case, this would leave the party in an unusual situation, in which case all ideas should be considered, including those initially viewed as silly.
As far as no one taking Carney seriously if he ‘stepped up’ to fight Castle for a race that Beau chooses to avoid, I disagree.
Let’s face it, the majority of Delaware voters vote for name recognition, not voting history or background. Despite 100% of DL readers/writers knowing this fact, I suspect that under 40% of Delaware voters realize that Castle is a Republican.
Isn’t there a Republican senator resignation announced recently in the Northwest where the incumbent Democratic US Rep has considered switching races to run for the open US Senate seat? Changing conditions warrant a re-assessment.
I don’t think that ‘switching races’ under this hypothetical scenario is the negative that you do.
Biden’s plan B kills your plan B
If Biden doesn’t run now, then he is planning to run in 2014 when Mike retires. (plan B)
any other Dem is a longshot, but may be willing to run in 2010 (and loose) as practice for running in 2014… but the party is going to leave you hanging and Run Biden in 2014.
Any chance that the mindset now becomes, “With the loss of the Mass. seat and the several others that will inevitably be lost next year, we need to do everything we can to hold on to the ones we can”? Maybe this spurs Beau into the race thinking Dems can’t afford to lose any that could be held. A boy can dream. I think it’s obvious the way this state works that it’s either Beau or hand Castle his key to the Senate terlet.
I’ve said all along that I thought Beau wouldn’t run. He’d be crazy if he did. Why risk a race w/ Castle now when the codger has only one Senatorial term in him at best?
Kauffman will run. He’s the obvious choice.
Whatever happens Delaware will elect a “moderate” who will vote with the Republican majority to prove his moderation.
Also
Geezer is right. If Biden chickens out this race is over.
Karen Peterson
Don’t you dare touch Karen Peterson. We need her in the State–and a bird in the hand……
Make a prediction, Jason! 😉
I know Karen Peterson, and she is a goodhearted person, maybe too goodhearted for Federal government, but she would be good.
Did someone say Pete Schwartzkopf could run? OMG, that would be a crash and burn on takeoff.
Beau isnt going to take on Castle! Why should he? The former three blind mice, Carper, Castle and Biden were all best buds for decades. You think Beau is going be tough on the ole geezer,not on your life! Beau will sit this one out and wait to build up his reputation as the AG. Get the child molestor behind bars, check!
Until the democrats change course and deliver for the people on health care, jobs, the economy…wait, wait. He’s young yet.
Lets get behind someone who has a track record of standing on issues that affect the people. Someone who is honest, dependable and well known statewide….John Flagherty.
Well, I’LL run unless someone declares soon. And don’t bother to tell me that I don’t have a snowball’s chance, because if we can’t even get a name on the ballot we don’t deserve to be a party anyway.
This is ridiculous.
Now that the Dem wave is weakening, Beau will no longer be able to win with a bland feelgood campaign, which is what I think he was counting on. He’ll actually have to enunciate some strong Democratic positions, and:
1. Draw a contrast between himself and Castle.
2. Land numerous punches on Castle.
I have made this point repeatedly — whoever runs has to be willing to critique Castle’s faux moderation and needs to do that decisively. That is probably the biggest thing I’d need to hear from Biden. A feelgood campaign won’t work in this instance — no matter the shape of the national party.
Democrats have forgotten how to run confrontational campaigns. They all live in mortal fear of being regarded as lacking in moderation.
Good Timing. I just got an email from Tim Kaine saying we will figure out what happened in MA later, but…
“But in the meantime, we will continue to work tirelessly on behalf of the American people, and we will redouble our efforts to lay out a clear choice for voters this November.”
Redouble? 2 x 0 equals ????
I got one from “Jeremy Bird, BarackObama.com” today asking me if I wanted to host a SOTU party:
“Especially in the wake of Tuesday’s election, there are a lot of fellow OFA supporters in your area who want to come together for this speech and get involved — but first they need a place to meet.”
They’re cracken’ me up with this stuff. No, wait, what if we have a SOTU party, and we all bring shoes to throw at the screen?
BTW a1. – at least McCain isn’t the President.
No, but apparently Joe LIEberman was. Now it is President Brown.
Come to think of it, I think there was a typo in my e-mail. I bet that they were inviting me to a STFU party instead.
The Dems have their own “Alan Levin”.
On the Kaufman question: He WILL NOT RUN. Period. End of sentence. I asked him this point blank, and he answered at length. As he put it, he had to make a decision: BE a senator, or RUN for senator. Only one of those interested him, and it wasn’t running.
Well, fair enough. I think he’s been an awesome one.