Who Will Run and How Do They Stack Up?
With Beau Biden’s withdrawal from the Senate race yesterday, we have a lot of scrambling going on. Let’s discuss the pros and cons of each of the prospective Democratic candidates.
First, let’s dispense with Lt. Governor Matt Denn. I spoke to him yesterday. He isn’t going to run. His two kids come first in his life, and not seeing them for days at a time would be an abdication of his most important role. But let me say for the record, he would be my first choice.
Same for Sen. Ted Kaufman, he has reiterated that he will not run, even if Harry Themal says pretty please with a cherry on top. He could win, but I guess that sticking around for 6 years wasn’t part of the deal with Gov. Minner and Joe Biden.
Chris Coons seems the most likely successor. He has run New Castle County reasonably well, but Republicans will attack him with a 25% tax increase (even if that increase works out to only a few bucks a month). He is reasonably well-respected within the county and may have benefited from an acrimonious primary fight with former county executive Tom Gordon. The matchup drew a good deal of attention from the News Journal and may have lead to a number of statewide readers to see Coons as the good guy in the race. He will certainly have the usual suspects nipping at his heels for perceived slights through the years (development questions will come up, but are not applicable in a Senate race). My biggest concern is whether Coons has the stomach to beat Castle over the head with his record and challenge Castle’s “moderate record.” If he can come out swinging, I give him a 45% chance of beating Castle. Plus, in an off year for county executive election, he wouldn’t risk his existing job.
Pete Schwartzkopf is Jack Markell’s right hand man in the legislature. One of his earliest and strongest backers, Pete has done what it takes to win elections and has been rewarded by being the majority leader. That said, outside of the politically aware, Pete is unknown. In a race where the Republican was someone besides Mike Castle, Pete would be the favorite. Sadly, the opponent is Mike Castle. I would give Pete a 15% chance of victory, and he would likely cede his position of majority leader for the effort.
One possibility that hasn’t been discussed is that Jack Markell could run. And Jack could win. He has money in the bank, name recognition, support from across the aisle and a nascent organization that could be enthusiastically called back into service. Also, we would be able to have Matt Denn move up to Governor (did I mention that Matt Denn is awesome?). I would give Markell a 50-50 shot against Mike Castle. He is likable and with the Carney primary, showed that he knows how to throw a punch. Unfortunately, it ain’t gonna happen. Jack Likes his job and has a number of opportunities that have opened up to him in his role as Governor. Bummer.
Who am I missing here? John Kowalko? He has name recognition, but his fundraising isn’t up to the standards of a run for federal office. Same goes for Karen Peterson, although I would love to see either of them throw punches at Castle. Who else?
Tags: Chris Coons, Jack Markell, Karen Peterson, kowalko, Matt Denn, Pete Schwartzkopf
Joe and Tom want Mike Castle to win. They don’t want any Dem that could win to run. Castle has a million bucks in his campaign war chest while, thanks to Ruth, Joe, Tom, and Beau, the Dems don’t even have a viable prospect.
Joe, Beau and Ruth screwed Delaware and screwed the nation by guaranteeing a Castle win.
There is only one person in Delaware who knows how to throw a punch at Castle. Draft Jason!
Nancy Willing has declared that she will be done with the Del Dems if the voters nominate Coons.
Thank God.
I am only half joking. If Castle is going to win, our search shifts to finding a candidate who can go the distance with wit, style, and a bloody chunk of Castle’s leg between his teeth.
The Democratic campaign against Castle should generate quotes that will live on after the last DelawareOnline link has gone dead and the last campaign interview tapes have been lost at WDEL.
Nancy also helpfully does not offer any suggestion as to who should run.
Schwartzkopf should run to set the stage for future statewide runs. (Governor and/or Caper Successor). Why would he give up his House Seat? He keeps that without trying.
Me. You missed me.
Here’s my campaign. Everyone goes to a lot of trouble to “send a message to Washington.” EVERYONE. But let’s face facts, hardly a person in either house of Congress knows a thing about shopping for groceries, paying for college and plain getting through a month. We’ve let those people run things and they’ve run them into the ground.
Time to elect someone who KNOWS what’s at stake in the health-care debate, not because they’ve been on listening tours, but because they got a wave good-bye and a phone number for COBRA when they were widowed with an infant.
Time to elect me.
Nancy is an excellent example of an ankle-biter. I am an ankle-biter, too. If I said bad things about Chris Coons, I am certain that he wouldn’t give a damn.
Of course, Nancy has accused me of participating in grand conspiracies before, and will again. So accusing Coons of such things is not much of a surprise. And let’s face it, Coons has a lot more opportunity to engage in shenanigans, but one that sets their course with Nancy as their guiding star is doomed to wash up on the shoals of credibility.
Swing State Project wrote about the race. In the post, they report that Carney had definitely ruled out switching races (no big surprise there). They also link to some polling done by dkos/R2K.
Coons polls as well as Kaufman or Carney with much lower name recognition than Castle or Biden. I think this shows Castle is vulnerable.
Let’s see how the state workers turn out for little Jack should he decide to run for the Senate.
I’m sure they will have all forgotten how he tried to slash their salaries by 8% and how he increased their healthcare payments by 50%!
This is Castle’s to lose…Just one more seat the Republicans will have in the Senate.
Desmond – As I said above, Jack could win, but won’t run. No need to get too excited. Also, I look forward to your plan to balance the state budget.
That said, Jack, make some of the wealthy and the corporations pay for the benefits that this state provides to them.
“With Beau Biden’s withdrawal from the Senate race yesterday…”
He didn’t withdraw; he was never in the race in the first place. Democrats wouldn’t have to scramble to find a candidate if they had been paying attention to the political climate. Their mistake, in thinking Beau would run, was in assuming that he would be willing to bet his political career on a risky campaign. The Democratic Party might be in a rush, but the Biden family isn’t; they’re much too smart to put party interests before those of the family.
That is true, Chris. He did not withdraw. However, we will have to agree to disagree on the political landscape influencing the decision significantly. I don’t think MA-Sen had a damn thing to do with the decision.
Beau could have won that race, but it would have cost anguish of victims and him a legacy in Sussex.
Brooke:
Who are you? Do you have a last name?
We can only hope Nancy follows through and disavows from the party!
“but one that sets their course with Nancy as their guiding star is doomed to wash up on the shoals of credibility.” – CLASSIC!
“Let’s see how the state workers turn out for little Jack should he decide to run for the Senate.”
Um, not to put too fine a point on this, but who gives a fuck what state workers will do? If you’re willing to vote against him because he actually listened to you dickwads and cut salaries instead of laying off people, you’re worthless anyway. Republicans vote for their selfish interests; if Democrats do the same, they’re the same thing (whores) who are simply working the cheap side of the street.
Geezer – tell us how you really feel. 🙂
“but one that sets their course with Nancy as their guiding star is doomed to wash up on the shoals of credibility.” – CLASSIC!
Is it Bulwyer-Lytton time already?
That would be a crappy beginning of a novel, but could be the last line of a disaster novel.
Somehow it makes me think of a 600 foot tall Nancy in robes and a torch like the Statue Of Liberty.
But seriously… Dems need at the very least a candidate who won’t embarrass us in losing. And there is always the chance that Castle will have a senior moment or three. We don’t want to wake up in bed next to Senator Mike Miller.
I believe Coons will run. What has he got to lose? He has wanted to run for another office for the last couple months, and he initially telegraphed his interest in the AG race should Beau run for Senate. And then, without explanation, he told his supporters privately a week or two ago that he would not be running for the AG office. I can’t help but think the two events are linked…..
“Somehow it makes me think of a 600 foot tall Nancy in robes and a torch like the Statue Of Liberty.”
With her head sticking out of the sand and a bunch of apes wandering around.
I would vote for a comatose Castle over Mike Miller.
With her head sticking out of the sand and a bunch of apes wandering around.
That was in Dewey last August.
Nancy Willing is going to be to Coons what Crazy Eileen was to Castle. People are going to say to themselves, “Boy, I feel sorry for him. Anyone who is vilified by such a wackjob has to be good.”
From her latest spittle:
“I have boxes of Coons’ corruption in the basement. It will all be online for the world to see in the ensuing months.
Jack Markell’s not going to be any happier. He will be getting the brunt of the ‘in yer face’ truth telling that I have been holding back on. Now, I won’t have any reason not to just spit it out.
This camp of Coons, with mommy on the board of trustees of the UD and his hand in every developers pocket and his using his office to destroy our heritage despite his oath of office makes him a rotten tomato ready to burst not some sweet peach ready to bite.”
That’s a great campaign slogan. “CHRIS COONS … A SWEET PEACH.”
Please put down the bottle, Nancy, for your own good.
Sorry anony, sober as sweat. Chris Coons is a loss for the DEMs and if the state party puts him up, I work against the state party. Period.
but one that sets their course with Nancy as their guiding star is doomed to wash up on the shoals of credibility.
*
seriously.embarrassing. put down the romance novel, dude.
“Bulo is too generous with Coons’ chances. 45% ?
There are a lot of people who will refuse to vote Coons up since that puts Paul Clark into the County Executive seat by fiat.
Clark gets a two year incumbency as county executive if Coons gets the nod. That’s the law. And why I don’t think anyone is really serious about getting Castle beat. Unless they beg Kaufman.
This candidate indeed is one of the people.
Brent Wangen in 2010. http://Www.wangen2010.com
Kowalko has name reconition? Only on this blog. No one knows him outside of Leg Hall.
I know you guys are in love and worship his every move, but lets be serious.
Nancy Willing wrote: ““Bulo is too generous with Coons’ chances. 45%? ”
Wasn’t me.
Although I do think Coons has a reasonable chance to win. Things often look a lot different in November than they do in January.
I’d rather see Coons primary Carney. That would be a great race, and really draw some lines. It would make some great mid-term excitement.
I like Kauffman! He’s done a great job so far. Maybe he could be talked into changing his mind.
Karen Peterson would make a great Senator. She has a fine progressive record to run on.
I don’t know Coons, so have no comment on him.
Having Markell, who has a high approval rating and is popular, campaigning throughout the state for the Dem candidate, will help a lot.
If Obama’s new focus on Main Street increases jobs, lowers foreclosures, and stimulates small businesses, all good for DE, the Dems have a better chance of making inroads by attacking the do-nothing record of Republican Castle!
Don’t ‘run for the woods’ folks!
Kaufman has said he won’t run.