With Beau Biden’s withdrawal from the Senate race yesterday, we have a lot of scrambling going on. Let’s discuss the pros and cons of each of the prospective Democratic candidates.
First, let’s dispense with Lt. Governor Matt Denn. I spoke to him yesterday. He isn’t going to run. His two kids come first in his life, and not seeing them for days at a time would be an abdication of his most important role. But let me say for the record, he would be my first choice.
Same for Sen. Ted Kaufman, he has reiterated that he will not run, even if Harry Themal says pretty please with a cherry on top. He could win, but I guess that sticking around for 6 years wasn’t part of the deal with Gov. Minner and Joe Biden.
Chris Coons seems the most likely successor. He has run New Castle County reasonably well, but Republicans will attack him with a 25% tax increase (even if that increase works out to only a few bucks a month). He is reasonably well-respected within the county and may have benefited from an acrimonious primary fight with former county executive Tom Gordon. The matchup drew a good deal of attention from the News Journal and may have lead to a number of statewide readers to see Coons as the good guy in the race. He will certainly have the usual suspects nipping at his heels for perceived slights through the years (development questions will come up, but are not applicable in a Senate race). My biggest concern is whether Coons has the stomach to beat Castle over the head with his record and challenge Castle’s “moderate record.” If he can come out swinging, I give him a 45% chance of beating Castle. Plus, in an off year for county executive election, he wouldn’t risk his existing job.
Pete Schwartzkopf is Jack Markell’s right hand man in the legislature. One of his earliest and strongest backers, Pete has done what it takes to win elections and has been rewarded by being the majority leader. That said, outside of the politically aware, Pete is unknown. In a race where the Republican was someone besides Mike Castle, Pete would be the favorite. Sadly, the opponent is Mike Castle. I would give Pete a 15% chance of victory, and he would likely cede his position of majority leader for the effort.
One possibility that hasn’t been discussed is that Jack Markell could run. And Jack could win. He has money in the bank, name recognition, support from across the aisle and a nascent organization that could be enthusiastically called back into service. Also, we would be able to have Matt Denn move up to Governor (did I mention that Matt Denn is awesome?). I would give Markell a 50-50 shot against Mike Castle. He is likable and with the Carney primary, showed that he knows how to throw a punch. Unfortunately, it ain’t gonna happen. Jack Likes his job and has a number of opportunities that have opened up to him in his role as Governor. Bummer.
Who am I missing here? John Kowalko? He has name recognition, but his fundraising isn’t up to the standards of a run for federal office. Same goes for Karen Peterson, although I would love to see either of them throw punches at Castle. Who else?