Markos Moulitsas of Daily Kos reads the Castle-Coons race correctly, I think.
He runs down a bullet point list of factors that auger well for Coons: 1) being NCCo Executive is beneficial since the county houses 66% of the state’s population; 2) that the R2000 poll of Delaware last November showed Coons only receiving 65 percent of the Democratic vote against Castle, a figure that will only go up once the campaign gets under way; 3) Castle is still a Republican no matter how much he cowardly tries to run away from his party even while voting lockstep with his Party of No, which will hurt him as he continues to vote no; 4) Castle’s record in voting against the stimulus, against healthcare, for the Stupak Amendment despite Castle’s alleged pro-choice position and against the jobs bill when the number one issue is jobs will also hurt Castle; 5) in an anti-incumbent, anti-DC environment, Castle is the decades long DC incumbent, which can only be beneficial to Coons who will run as a populist outsider; and 6) Coons has youth on his side
Markos also points out the similarities between the Biden-Boggs race in 1972 and this one, where Biden as a NCCo Councilman defeated a longtime DC incumbent in an upset, although Markos mistakenly thought Biden was also a County Executive. I had to correct him. Markos concludes:
Castle starts of this race as the favorite, but it’s a long 10 months before election day, and in politics, that’s an eternity. If Castle continues to vote lockstep with the obstructionist Republicans, Coons benefits. If Castle tries to be that “independent voice” he claims he is, he’ll raise the ire of the teabaggers and potentially fuel a real primary challenger. The primary in Delaware isn’t until mid-September, and the filing deadline isn’t until July 30 — plenty of time for teabaggers to find a serious recruit or rally behind this one. This one will be competitive.
I love that dig at Whackjob Christine O’Donnell. Apparently not a serious recruit in Kos’ eyes. Not a real primary challenger. Hehehe.