Rasmussen Polls Delaware
Rasmussen is a Republican outfit that skews both its sampling and its questions towards Republicans. They have just released a new Delaware poll, conducted on Monday with a sampling size of 500 (which is probably average for Delaware) but the margin of error is high (4.5%) with this poll. No other internals are available at this time for review (as to partisan or ideological breakdowns), which is a red flag in the polling world.
So with those boulders of salt, here are their results for the First State.
* President Obama has a 51% approval rating, versus a 48% disapproval rating.
* Governor Markell has a 61% approval rating, versus a 37% disapproval rating.
* Castle leads Coons 53% to 32%. 8% prefer some other candidate (O’Donnell?? Anti-Coons or Pro-Biden sentiment?) and 8% are unsure.
This feels about right to me, in that I feel the Castle-Coons race is a 50-40 race at the moment, with Castle as the favorite. I really want to see the partisan breakdown here, though.
* Coons has a 43% favorability rating, versus a 35% unfavorability rating. 22% don’t know who he is or are not sure.
* Castle has a 65% favorability rating, versus a 30% unfavorability rating. 4% live in caves.
* Here is an interesting nugget about the economy and Delawarean’s personal finances: 82% rate their personal or family finances either fair, good or excellent. Only 16% rate them as poor. And 2% live in caves. Yet, 51% feel their finances have gotten worse over the past year. How is that possible? 18% feel they have gotten better, and 28% say they are the same, and 2% live in caves. I think media perception drives views on the economy. Do you ever notice commercials on TV and radio that continue to say “In tough times as these….” We are officially in a recovery, the recession is over, the economy is growing and the unemployment rate is finally falling again, and yet the President from 24 on the Allstate commercial thinks we haven’t bottomed out yet.
I guess since the GOP has no credible candidate for the House yet, they did not poll any matchups with Carney. Still, where is the Carney info? Where is info on Beau Biden? I mean, I find it hard to believe that a polling outfit would poll Delaware without asking questions on Biden and Carney and Copeland.
This is why I do not trust Rasmussen. With credible polls, you get info on all the questions asked, the partisan breakdowns, the demographic breakdowns. Say what you will about Research 2000, which runs the Daily Kos poll, but you get all this stuff with them. When you don’t post internals or hold back results, you are hiding something.
The 65% approval rating for Castle seems way off the board; most polling the last few years puts him around 50%.
Indeed, Geezer. Another boulder of salt…..
Rassy has come clean about being a partisan operation. Only Loudell still thinks that they are legit. Expect drive time atrocities today.
WDEL: Why is Mike Castle so awesome?
Rassy: His awesomeness is so awesome.
How come I and the folks i know are never polled?????
Since we haven’t missed an election since we were 21 years old and allowed to vote. oop’s just reveald our ages
Probably because you are not a Republican.
Don’t most polls have a + or – 4% margain of error?
If it applies here, one posible margin between Castle and Coons for this poll is 49% to 36% which would put Coons only down by 13% over 8 months from the election and less than 30 days from when he annouced.
I don’t know if Coons will win,but it seems do-able. To erode a 13% difference he only needs to flip 7% of the voters from Castle to Coons.
What’s that.. Maybe 12,000 votes? Doable.
It is definitely doable-and his name recognition numbers are still low–getting out there and beating the drum can only help associate him to those who don’t know him. Picked up the stickers for my cars today at Dem HQ and encourage others to do so!