New Senate Poll Gives Castle A 18 Point Lead (Updated)

Filed in National by on February 26, 2010

A new poll from Daily Kos/Research 2000 gives Mike Castle a lead of 18 points over Chris Coons:

Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 2/22-24. Likely voters. MoE 4% (10/14/09 results)

Senate

Mike Castle (R) 53 (51)
Chris Coons (D) 35 (39)

Castle has a +30 favorability rating, Coons is +27.

Favorables, for what it’s worth: Castle is at 65%-32% (was: 64%-30%); Coons 52%-25% (was: 34%-8%). Castle’s favorables for a Republican in a blue state are unsurprising when you remember that Castle has served in statewide office since 1981 — as Delaware’s Lieutenant Governor, Governor, and since 1993 its lone representative in Congress. Against someone who’s as much a fixture in Delaware as tax-free shopping, friendly treatment of corporations and screen door factories, New Castle County Chief Executive Chris Coons indeed has an uphill battle in store.

Coons has obviously increased his name recognition, but still lags behind. This race will be an uphill battle for Coons and I think he can win, but he needs to start generating some excitement. I think that excitement starts with the grassroots Democrats.

This race may be an interesting one, because it’s a photo-negative of a lot of the other races. Will Castle be able to generate the excitement in the Republican base that we’re seeing in other states? He’s the opposite of a diehard, teabag conservative. Castle is obviously counting on support from independents and Democrats to get elected. Can he count on them? Castle will be the establishment candidate, the de-facto incumbent. Can Coons take advantage of that fact?

There’s some danger for Castle, I think. His election number (53%) is significantly lower than his approval number (65%). To me that’s saying that at least 12% of people who approve of him aren’t voting for him. The same can be said for Coons’s numbers, but his name recognition is lower. I think this poll is also saying that last few weeks of bad publicity for Castle have not taken a toll on his popularity.

These results look fairly similar to the Rasmussen results released yesterday:

* Castle leads Coons 53% to 32%. 8% prefer some other candidate (O’Donnell?? Anti-Coons or Pro-Biden sentiment?) and 8% are unsure.

This feels about right to me, in that I feel the Castle-Coons race is a 50-40 race at the moment, with Castle as the favorite. I really want to see the partisan breakdown here, though.

* Coons has a 43% favorability rating, versus a 35% unfavorability rating. 22% don’t know who he is or are not sure.

* Castle has a 65% favorability rating, versus a 30% unfavorability rating. 4% live in caves.

UPDATE FROM DELAWARE DEM: Here are the full crosstabs, with favorability ratings for all sorts of Delaware pols.

Daily Kos/Research 2000 Delaware Poll

Research 2000, MoE 4%, Feb 22, 2010 – Feb 24, 2010

FAVORABLE/UNFAVORABLE

  VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
COONS 24 28 17 8 23
CASTLE 26 39 19 13 3
O’DONNELL 16 17 18 21 28
CARNEY 22 25 13 9 31
COPELAND 9 12 13 10 56
CULLIS 5 5 8 10 72
WHARTON 21 27 22 16 14
MARKELL 23 31 17 13 16
CARPER 22 30 18 15 15
KAUFMAN 17 23 15 12 33
OBAMA 27 32 20 16 5

 

Chris Coons

  FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 52 25 23
MEN 49 29 22
WOMEN 55 21 24
DEMOCRATS 74 10 16
REPUBLICANS 23 47 30
INDEPENDENTS 50 22 28
18-29 56 22 22
30-44 54 24 22
45-59 50 26 24
60+ 48 28 24

Mike Castle

  FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 65 32 3
MEN 70 28 2
WOMEN 60 36 4
DEMOCRATS 43 53 4
REPUBLICANS 87 10 3
INDEPENDENTS 79 19 2
18-29 58 37 5
30-44 64 33 3
45-59 67 30 3
60+ 70 28 2

Christine O’Donnell

  FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 33 39 28
MEN 35 36 29
WOMEN 31 42 27
DEMOCRATS 16 57 27
REPUBLICANS 59 13 28
INDEPENDENTS 31 40 29
18-29 25 43 32
30-44 32 41 27
45-59 34 38 28
60+ 38 36 26

John Carney

  FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 47 22 31
MEN 44 26 30
WOMEN 50 18 32
DEMOCRATS 69 6 25
REPUBLICANS 16 49 35
INDEPENDENTS 48 14 38
18-29 50 20 30
30-44 49 21 30
45-59 45 23 32
60+ 43 25 32

Charlie Copeland

  FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 21 23 56
MEN 24 21 55
WOMEN 18 25 57
DEMOCRATS 12 30 58
REPUBLICANS 34 13 53
INDEPENDENTS 20 24 56
18-29 17 26 57
30-44 20 25 55
45-59 23 21 56
60+ 24 21 55

Fred Cullis

  FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 10 18 72
MEN 12 16 72
WOMEN 8 20 72
DEMOCRATS 5 23 72
REPUBLICANS 17 11 72
INDEPENDENTS 8 19 73
18-29 6 20 74
30-44 10 19 71
45-59 11 18 71
60+ 12 16 72

Ferris Wharton

  FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 48 38 14
MEN 52 35 13
WOMEN 44 41 15
DEMOCRATS 30 59 11
REPUBLICANS 73 18 9
INDEPENDENTS 49 26 25
18-29 43 44 13
30-44 46 40 14
45-59 50 36 14
60+ 51 34 15

Jack Markell

  FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 54 30 16
MEN 50 34 16
WOMEN 58 26 16
DEMOCRATS 77 8 15
REPUBLICANS 21 66 13
INDEPENDENTS 56 22 22
18-29 59 26 15
30-44 55 28 17
45-59 52 31 17
60+ 50 35 15

Tom Carper

  FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 52 33 15
MEN 48 37 15
WOMEN 56 29 15
DEMOCRATS 75 10 15
REPUBLICANS 20 64 16
INDEPENDENTS 53 33 14
18-29 57 28 15
30-44 53 32 15
45-59 51 34 15
60+ 48 36 16

Ted Kaufman

  FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 40 27 33
MEN 37 32 31
WOMEN 43 22 35
DEMOCRATS 65 8 27
REPUBLICANS 6 60 34
INDEPENDENTS 39 18 43
18-29 43 23 34
30-44 42 25 33
45-59 38 28 34
60+ 38 31 31

Barack Obama

  FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 59 36 5
MEN 53 41 6
WOMEN 65 31 4
DEMOCRATS 86 10 4
REPUBLICANS 19 74 7
INDEPENDENTS 63 32 5
WHITE 52 43 5
BLACK 91 4 5
18-29 67 29 4
30-44 61 34 5

QUESTION: If the election for U.S. Senate were held today, for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Chris Coons, the Democrat, and Mike Castle, the Republican?

  CHRIS COONS MIKE CASTLE UNDECIDED
ALL 35 53 12
MEN 32 58 10
WOMEN 38 48 14
DEMOCRATS 61 24 15
REPUBLICANS 6 87 7
INDEPENDENTS 27 61 12
WHITE 30 61 9
BLACK 58 16 26
18-29 39 46 15
30-44 37 52 11
45-59 34 55 11
60+ 31 57 12

QUESTION: If the election for U.S. Senate were held today, for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Chris Coons, the Democrat, and Christine O’Donnell, the Republican?

  CHRIS COONS CHRISTINE O’DONNELL UNDECIDED
ALL 47 31 22
MEN 43 34 23
WOMEN 51 28 21
DEMOCRATS 75 8 17
REPUBLICANS 12 65 23
INDEPENDENTS 43 29 28
WHITE 42 37 21
BLACK 71 4 25
18-29 50 27 23
30-44 49 29 22
45-59 46 32 22
60+ 43 36 21

QUESTION: If the election for Congress were held today, for whom would you vote for if the choices were between John Carney, the Democrat, and Charlie Copeland, the Republican?

  JOHN CARNEY CHARLIE COPELAND UNDECIDED
ALL 46 29 25
MEN 42 33 25
WOMEN 50 25 25
DEMOCRATS 72 8 20
REPUBLICANS 10 59 31
INDEPENDENTS 45 28 27
WHITE 41 35 24
BLACK 70 2 28
18-29 49 25 26
30-44 48 27 25
45-59 44 31 25
60+ 42 33 25

QUESTION: If the election for Congress were held today, for whom would you vote for if the choices were between John Carney, the Democrat, and Fred Cullis, the Republican?

  JOHN CARNEY FRED CULLIS UNDECIDED
ALL 50 26 24
MEN 47 30 23
WOMEN 53 22 25
DEMOCRATS 77 7 16
REPUBLICANS 11 53 36
INDEPENDENTS 52 25 23
WHITE 45 31 24
BLACK 72 2 26
18-29 54 22 24
30-44 52 24 24
45-59 48 28 24
60+ 45 30 25

QUESTION: If the election for Congress were held today, for whom would you vote for if the choices were between John Carney, the Democrat, and Ferris Wharton, the Republican?

  JOHN CARNEY FERRIS WHARTON UNDECIDED
ALL 45 35 20
MEN 41 38 21
WOMEN 49 32 19
DEMOCRATS 75 9 16
REPUBLICANS 7 72 21
INDEPENDENTS 40 34 26
WHITE 40 41 19
BLACK 70 5 25
18-29 49 30 21
30-44 47 33 20
45-59 44 36 20
60+ 40 41 19

Demographics

MEN 283 47%
WOMEN 317 53%
DEMOCRATS 269 45%
REPUBLICANS 195 32%
INDEPENDENTS/OTHER 136 23%
WHITE 476 79%
BLACK 102 17%
18-29 84 14%
30-44 196 33%
45-59 217 36%
60+ 103 17%

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Comments (16)

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  1. anon says:
    February 26, 2010 at 1:48 pm

    Chris has got to get Castle’s democratic supporters back on his side. Granted I voted for Castle when he was running against the likes of Mike Miller, but now that the Dems have a strong candidate, there is no way I will vote for Castle.

  2. cassandra_m says:
    February 26, 2010 at 1:58 pm

    Wonder why they polled Ferris Wharton?

    Fred Cullis is a real non starter, isn’t he? We’ll have to make sure they know to poll this new guy, wade, next time. I suspect he’ll have similar numbers.

    INDEPENDENTS 27 61 12

    And look here, progressives, Coons is going to spend alot of effort getting more of these Independents. So I think you can consider this a More Democrat race, not a Better Democrat race.

  3. Unstable Isotope says:
    February 26, 2010 at 2:01 pm

    It looks like there’s a lot more Democrats up for grabs than independents. 24% of Dems are supporting Castle with 15% undecided. That means 40% of Dems are up for grabs by Coons.

  4. Unstable Isotope says:
    February 26, 2010 at 2:03 pm

    Look at his numbers against O’Donnell, I think it shows Coons has a lot of room to grow:

    Name recognition is his biggest challenge right now.

  5. Unstable Isotope says:
    February 26, 2010 at 2:04 pm

    I also have to say LOL, Copeland doesn’t fair better than Cullis against Carney.

  6. cassandra_m says:
    February 26, 2010 at 2:18 pm

    The undecided Dems are likely the richer pool to get to and I’d bet the calculus is that the undecided Dems and peeling off some Independents is the strategy here. There are going to be plenty of Dems here who would vote for Castle no matter what.

    I wonder if Christine O’Donnell will really turn loose her campaign. Living off of other people’s money is a staple of wingnut welfare — none of them seemed all that disturbed over the fact that Sarah Palin got a swanky new wardrobe on the RNC dime — and even Marco Rubio now has spending other people’s money problems. Those campaigns were how she maintained her profile and she doesn’t do much else besides tend to her profile.

  7. John Manifold says:
    February 26, 2010 at 4:12 pm

    Chris’ task is comparable to what faced Sheldon Whitehouse and Jeff Merkey when they ran against popular, semi-moderate fixtures Lincoln Chafee and Gordon Smith. All Democrats, committees and activists must unite.

    Cannot figure what role that O’D might play. Her biggest splash was in getting 2,500 votes – count ’em – in ’06 GOP primary. Her fund-raising in ’08 was worse than Mike Miller’s. Some third party lines beckon but Delaware voters tend to be binary behind the curtain.

  8. just kiddin says:
    February 26, 2010 at 4:20 pm

    This is funny. I read today where progressives want an option against the Tea Bag Nation. They want a “Coffee Party” nation. What is really happening is that both parties are in serious trouble. The people are waking up and realizing there are two parties, both are corporate owned parties and neither is looking out for us. This government is a broken step child. Neither party follows the Consitution. Both parties are committed to war and more war, keeping the military industrial complex stealing our treasury for wars of choice. I am with Bill Maher. Everytime I hear the Prez talk about Afganistan I get lost. Why are we there? Bin Laden is dead or somewhere else. So why are we spending our blood and treasure on these wars of choice? Why do we have troops in 160 nations? All the money spent on these wars and creation of weapons of mass destruction are destroying the country and we are not safer.

  9. Unstable Isotope says:
    February 26, 2010 at 6:01 pm

    Someone made the post all pretty. Thanks DD!

  10. Delaware Dem says:
    February 26, 2010 at 6:02 pm

    Look at Copeland’s numbers. It must kill him that no one knows who the hell he is, or at least do not care enough about him to have an opinion on him.

  11. Delaware Dem says:
    February 26, 2010 at 6:03 pm

    I have the secret backdoor key to the html codes on Daily Kos. LOL.

  12. Jason330 says:
    February 26, 2010 at 7:42 pm

    I was thinking the same thing about Copeland. I wish he would hurry up and lose another race so his career in politics would be over once and for all.

  13. Republican David says:
    February 26, 2010 at 9:29 pm

    So Rasmussen is skewed Republican? Do you wish to rethink that? He is just skewed accurate.

  14. anon1 says:
    February 27, 2010 at 9:05 am

    “In the 2009 ratings, only a handful of House Republicans had ratings to the left of the most-conservative Democrats. The most liberal Republican was Rep. Michael Castle of Delaware….”

    http://www.nationaljournal.com/njmagazine/cs_20100227_3230.php

    This sure throws a wrench in your plans to paint Castle as a mainline Republican.

  15. LaNuit says:
    February 27, 2010 at 10:07 am

    @Jason Why would Charles the Third do something like that? It’s much easier to just be Prick-Emeritus and call up a News Journal reporter once a month to get his name in the paper.

    And why would you want Copeland when you have the SIZZLE of Tom Kovach!?!!

  16. think123 says:
    March 1, 2010 at 11:45 am

    Who would you vote for: Dr. Earl Bradley of Lewes, the Republican candidate, or John Doe the Democratic Candidate? Republicans: Bradley 72. Doe 28.

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