A new poll from Daily Kos/Research 2000 gives Mike Castle a lead of 18 points over Chris Coons:

Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 2/22-24. Likely voters. MoE 4% (10/14/09 results)

Senate

Mike Castle (R) 53 (51)
Chris Coons (D) 35 (39)

Castle has a +30 favorability rating, Coons is +27.

Favorables, for what it’s worth: Castle is at 65%-32% (was: 64%-30%); Coons 52%-25% (was: 34%-8%). Castle’s favorables for a Republican in a blue state are unsurprising when you remember that Castle has served in statewide office since 1981 — as Delaware’s Lieutenant Governor, Governor, and since 1993 its lone representative in Congress. Against someone who’s as much a fixture in Delaware as tax-free shopping, friendly treatment of corporations and screen door factories, New Castle County Chief Executive Chris Coons indeed has an uphill battle in store.

Coons has obviously increased his name recognition, but still lags behind. This race will be an uphill battle for Coons and I think he can win, but he needs to start generating some excitement. I think that excitement starts with the grassroots Democrats.

This race may be an interesting one, because it’s a photo-negative of a lot of the other races. Will Castle be able to generate the excitement in the Republican base that we’re seeing in other states? He’s the opposite of a diehard, teabag conservative. Castle is obviously counting on support from independents and Democrats to get elected. Can he count on them? Castle will be the establishment candidate, the de-facto incumbent. Can Coons take advantage of that fact?

There’s some danger for Castle, I think. His election number (53%) is significantly lower than his approval number (65%). To me that’s saying that at least 12% of people who approve of him aren’t voting for him. The same can be said for Coons’s numbers, but his name recognition is lower. I think this poll is also saying that last few weeks of bad publicity for Castle have not taken a toll on his popularity.

These results look fairly similar to the Rasmussen results released yesterday:

* Castle leads Coons 53% to 32%. 8% prefer some other candidate (O’Donnell?? Anti-Coons or Pro-Biden sentiment?) and 8% are unsure.

This feels about right to me, in that I feel the Castle-Coons race is a 50-40 race at the moment, with Castle as the favorite. I really want to see the partisan breakdown here, though.

* Coons has a 43% favorability rating, versus a 35% unfavorability rating. 22% don’t know who he is or are not sure.

* Castle has a 65% favorability rating, versus a 30% unfavorability rating. 4% live in caves.

UPDATE FROM DELAWARE DEM: Here are the full crosstabs, with favorability ratings for all sorts of Delaware pols.