It is already happening. Last night we saw the Democrats taking out their own trash to better their prospects in November. Indeed, the Senate race in Pennsylvania goes from a toss up between Specter and Toomey, and now it will be a Democratic hold in November. In Arkansas, Blanche Lincoln, if renominated, would be a lock for defeat in November. But last night, she was held to 43%, barely finishing ahead of progressive Lt. Governor Bill Halter, and will be forced into a runoff three weeks from now against him. And you have to figure, given her showing last night,and Halter’s performance last night, she is in trouble of losing. If Halter wins, while Arkansas does not become a Democratic lock, it does become competitive again, maybe even a tossup.
Up in Kentucky, the Republicans damaged their own general election prospects by nominating a batshit insane, unlikable, rude and classless Teabagger named Rand Paul. Indeed, in previous general election matchups featuring Paul and now Democratic nominee Jack Conway, Conway is tied with Paul or only a couple points behind, within the margin of error. So what was a guaranteed Republican hold is now a competitive tossup. Nice going GOP.
And in the special election last night in 21st Congressional District south of Pittsburgh, in a district that is culturally conservative, in a district that voted for John McCain, in a district that does not approve of President Obama; the Republicans failed to pick up the seat. Indeed, the Democrat, Mark Critz, while a Blue Dog, trounced his Republican opponent. It was not even close. To have any hope of winning the House, the GOP had to win this seat last night. They failed spectacularly.
In Colorado, both Democrats competing in an upcoming primary best both Republicans competing for the GOP nomination. This is a seat that the GOP must win in the fall to have any hopes of winning back the Senate. But in a new Public Policy Polling survey in Colorado finds Sen. Michael Bennet (D) leading Jane Norton (R) 44% to 41%, and Ken Buck (R) by an even wider margin, 45% to 39%. If Andrew Romanoff (D) were the nominee, he would also edge Norton, 43% to 41%, and lead Buck, 41% to 38%.
Sure, the GOP is going to pick seats. They will probably net 2 seats in the Senate and 10 to 20 in the House.
But, we have been assured from our Republican friends that a monstrous 1994 like wave was coming, due to opposition to Obama and the Democratic Congress, which would guarantee the pickup of 100 to 130 Republican seats. But then came the Democratic win in the PA-21.
“If you can’t win a seat that is trending Republican in a year like this, then where is the wave?” asked Tom Davis, a former Republican congressman from Virginia, who said Republicans will need to examine what went wrong.
And it is not just the 21st in Pennsylvania. Democrats have won ever congressional special election during this Congress, in the NY20, IL5, CA32, CA10, NY23, and FL19. If a wave was forming, the GOP would have won some or all of those races.
Marc Ambinder on the 21st before the results were known:
“If the Republican doesn’t [win], I think us pundits in Washington are going to have to revise our thinking about whether this is a wave election year for Republicans.”
Indeed. So it is time to do that. There was some signs of some reporters and pundits actually rethinking their preprogrammed narratives, ironically Politico:
“Republicans failed spectacularly, losing on a level playing field where, in this favorable environment, they should have run roughshod over the opposition…. The district itself couldn’t have been more primed for a Republican victory.”
Personally, I think there was a wave, but it has long since dissipated. It crested with Scott Brown’s win in Massachusetts in January. His election, and his campaign, was a release valve for all the Teabagger anger. Since then we have seen Democrats actually accomplish some things, passing Healthcare reform, a Jobs bill, and are on the brink of passing Wall Street Reform. Since then, we have seen the economy improve, so much so that if current job creation continues, by the time Democrats face voters in the fall the economy will have created more jobs during President Obama’s two years than George Bush and the Republicans created during their eight years in power from 2001 to 2009. Since then we have seen the enthusiam gap decline to nothing between the parties. Earlier this year Republicans were not only eager and certain to vote but they were excited about it, while Democrats were disappointed and depressed from the lack of forward progress on healthcare reform and other issues. Last night, however, we saw many more Democrats turn out to vote in their respective primaries in Pennsylvania, Arkansas and Kentucky than Republicans. If there is an enthusiasm gap anymore, it benefits Democrats, rather than Republicans.
There will be more primaries to come, but I think it is safe to say that the 2010 midterm elections will not be a massive wave election for the GOP, and the elections will continue to defy preset narratives and make pundits actually think.
And to the GOP base who are expecting a Republican Congress next year, hehehe, they will have their hearts broken, which brings me much joy.