The ‘Lower 41’: Surveying House Elections for 2010
FIRST IN A CONTINUING SERIES
2010 represents the Last Best Chance for Republicans to retake control of the Delaware State House of Representatives, control that they lost in 2008 after 24 consecutive years in the majority. Do they have a chance? What seats are in play? What are the storylines in all 41 districts? How do I feel about all of this?
I intend to bring my understanding, however warped it might be, of the General Assembly to answer these questions. Some districts no doubt will be written up several times as we get closer to November and circumstances change. Some may only be addressed once.
I will include in every single district evaluation a prediction on the likelihood of the district switching parties. So, if for example, I write that there’s a 20% possibility of a switch, it means that I’m predicting a 1 in 5 chance, and that I’m NOT predicting a margin of 80%-20%.
Oh, and you can bet that I’ll bring my Snark Factor with me as well. I am admittedly genetically incapable of doing otherwise.
I will generally group districts in ways that make sense to me, if no one else. Got it, kids? Oh, and if you want to follow along at home, here is where you can find all the district maps.
Let the games begin!
REPRESENTATIVE DISTRICT 1: Dennis P. Williams, Incumbent
This Wilmington North District runs north and east from the Brandywine Creek/River to Brandywine Hills and even meanders slightly outside the City to take in, among others, Paladin Club. Registration figures are insanely lopsided: 10,054 D’s; 1,399 R’s; and 2,321 I’s.
The incumbent has filed for reelection, and he thus far faces no primary nor general election opponent. Nor, frankly, would I expect him to.
That’s b/c the big storyline here is that Rep. Williams has all but announced that he is running for Mayor of Wilmington in 2012. And he may well be the early front-runner. He has developed statewide credibility, and fundraising ability, as Joint Finance Committee co-chair. He is a skilled political infighter known for his sharp elbows. If you’re a Democrat even considering a primary, why would you want to cross swords with someone guaranteed to have a long memory if he gets elected Mayor? Better to wait until 2012, when the seat could be a free-for-all, and will look somewhat different following reapportionment. And, if you’re an R, well, take a second look at those registration numbers.
The only reason that there COULD be a primary is b/c (a) sometimes logic is not always a factor used in deciding to run; and (b) sometimes city primaries are crafted not necessarily to oust the incumbent, but rather to drive up vote totals for other, more competitive, primaries. Say, for example, Velda Jones-Potter vs. Chip Flowers.
Regardless, there is a 0% chance that this District changes parties in the RD election. Safe Democratic.
REPRESENTATIVE DISTRICT 2: Hazel D. Plant, Incumbent
Attention! This is a call to action for any credible would-be public servant who resides in the Second Representative District:
On Friday, July 1, 2010, Rep. Hazel Plant filed for reelection. The same Hazel Plant who was unable to attend the last day of legislative session on June 30, 2010, because of her health issues. The same Hazel Plant who has missed close to 50% of all session days this year, if not more.
I have held my fire on her inability to attend out of deference to her health. However, I had previously warned that her unavailability could well leave the House D’s short a vote on key issues. By filing for reelection, she has placed her own selfish considerations ahead of the need of her constituents to be represented in Dover. She is not going to (borrowing a Tony DeLuca word here) ‘miraculously’ get better. I wish I didn’t have to say this, but she is in failing health. In terms of demographics, the district she represents may well be the poorest in the state. Hence, most in need of active representation. The district also includes some of the most environmentally-toxic sites in the state, including Cherry Island.
This northeast Wilmington district is overwhelmingly Democratic, with registration figures of 9382 D’s; 1231 R’s; and 2452 I’s.
This district simply cannot afford the absentee non-leadership of Rep. Plant any more. This district has been in the hands of one family for 34 of the past 36 years. Rep. Plant has been a classy legislator and is a very nice person. But her decision to run for reelection when she can’t even show up for work should not go unchallenged.
The saying, “We get the government we deserve” has been attributed to several people. Rep. A. O. Plant used to drive around with a bumper sticker that read “Don’t Vote, Don’t Bitch”. If someone fails to primary this absentee representative, then she should drive around (were she capable of driving) with a ‘You Got the Government You Deserve’ sticker. With one more word courtesy of P. T. Barnum: “Suckers”.
No matter who gets elected here, there is a 0% chance that the District switches parties. Safe Democratic.
Boy, I think I’m gonna enjoy writing this series! Hope you enjoy reading it.
Tags: 2010 Elections; Rep. Dennis P. Williams; Rep. Hazel Plant;
Since the 2nd passes through a sort of hereditary succession, are there any seedlings in the garden?
I doubt it Jason.
wow that was really enlightening, can’t wait for the next 39.
‘Bulo,
Thanks so much for doing this. This is going to be a monumental series, no doubt, and I look forward to reading more…lots more!
And you’re dead on about Hazel “Potted” Plant. Time to go!!
Terry Spence was seen kicking up his prayer hands in a New Castle Baptist church this week. Just sayin’.
Special Trivia Question:
Name the person who, for one term, interrupted the Plant Family Dynasty in Dover.
Rourke Moore!
Dingdingding! Rourke Moore was sorta the ‘Great White Hope’ for this district even though he was/is black. Pretty sure that Freel/Carper were behind this candidacy in the aftermath of their battle to rid county politics of Gene Reed. Moore really didn’t make much of a mark in Dover, and A. O. Plant beat him in the rematch.
Don’t think that Moore has even dipped his toe in the political waters since then.
Think Spence has a chance at making a comeback?
Please don’t save the Sussex seats until last. Vary ’em a bit, por favor.
FWIW, the 38th (Hocker), 39th (Danny Short) and 40th (Lee) are all guaranteed Republican seats. Hocker and Short consistently whup whoever comes forward. Lee’s opponent two years ago was his first challenger in a decade, and he smacked her down. She was rumored to be running again, but seems to have changed her mind.
The 35th looks like a real race, with a young, enthusiastic progressive facing off against an inarticulate, hidebound good ol’ boy, but it’s not. Dave Wilson (R) is going to wipe the floor with Jim Westhoff (D). Too bad.
The 36th is the only tossup I see in Sussex, the race to succeed George Carey. Harvey Kenton (R) and Russ McCabe (D) are both extremely well-known names. McCabe might have some baggage if Kenton tags him as a state retiree looking to double-dip (he was state archivist for ages and ages), but Kenton has his own downsides, deep in the development community’s pockets.
The 41st is also a tossup, but that’s just because no one can figure out which side John Atkins is on. Rumor has it that former state Rep. Greg Hastings (R) is considering a rematch, but Atkins (alleged D) cleaned his clock last time around fairly well.
If Vance Phillips gets a challenger in the Sussex council race, look for Hastings to enter against Atkins, who engineered the bill that cleared the way for Democrat Dennis Cordrey to run against Vance without losing his county pension. Hastings and Vance are pals, and the grudge match will be fascinating to follow.
Pete Schwartzkopf has a lock on the 14th, no matter how much money or pigs the Republicans throw at him.
The Ron Poliquin/Ron Smith GOP primary is being called by some to be Poliquin.
1. You’ll just have to wait, AQC.
2. Thanks, Anon, for your look at Sussex. I will be skipping around the state, although my next entry will focus on three Wilmington-area districts impacted by reapportionment, both 2002 and the upcoming 2012 redistricting.
3. At this point, there is no Smith/Poliquin primary as Poliquin has not yet, pardon the expression, thrown himself into the ring. I’ve got a file folder just full of wrestling metaphors hoping and praying that he runs. ‘…(B)eing called by some to be Poliquin’ strikes me as just a bit self-serving.
BTW, prospective redistricting possibilities will be generously featured in this series.
Well, Poliquin hasn’t filed yet, but he’s definitely running: http://www.ronpoliquin.com/
Quite a few members of the GA haven’t filed yet, either, having waited until after the session to do so. I imagine tomorrow will be very busy at the Dept. of Elections.
I forgot to mention the 37th, the race between real estate lobbyist/freshman legislator Ruth Briggs King (R) and Sussex County double-dipping-hopeful Frank Shade (D). A tossup, IMHO. At first glance, the edge goes to Shade because of the very strong activist, anti-development community in Lewes. But Briggs King’s roots are in Georgetown, where the district’s population base is. The retired hippies are going to have to come out in force against the Realtors and farmers to pick this one up for the Democrats.
BTW, the second installment will be up on Wednesday.
This is a great post, Bulo! As far as the Plant seedlings go — there certainly are some. And they are largely being forced into the family business. The thinking being that the eligible sons would not be able to win on their own, but as an appointment would fit right into the entitlement politics of (some) of the city. There were people interested in running of Mrs. Plant did not, but expect that since she has filed that they’ll let her run unopposed.
It is a shame about Jim Westhoff in the 35th, but I’ve heard Harvey Kenton’s friends don’t even want him.