FIRST IN A CONTINUING SERIES
2010 represents the Last Best Chance for Republicans to retake control of the Delaware State House of Representatives, control that they lost in 2008 after 24 consecutive years in the majority. Do they have a chance? What seats are in play? What are the storylines in all 41 districts? How do I feel about all of this?
I intend to bring my understanding, however warped it might be, of the General Assembly to answer these questions. Some districts no doubt will be written up several times as we get closer to November and circumstances change. Some may only be addressed once.
I will include in every single district evaluation a prediction on the likelihood of the district switching parties. So, if for example, I write that there’s a 20% possibility of a switch, it means that I’m predicting a 1 in 5 chance, and that I’m NOT predicting a margin of 80%-20%.
Oh, and you can bet that I’ll bring my Snark Factor with me as well. I am admittedly genetically incapable of doing otherwise.
I will generally group districts in ways that make sense to me, if no one else. Got it, kids? Oh, and if you want to follow along at home, here is where you can find all the district maps.
Let the games begin!
REPRESENTATIVE DISTRICT 1: Dennis P. Williams, Incumbent
This Wilmington North District runs north and east from the Brandywine Creek/River to Brandywine Hills and even meanders slightly outside the City to take in, among others, Paladin Club. Registration figures are insanely lopsided: 10,054 D’s; 1,399 R’s; and 2,321 I’s.
The incumbent has filed for reelection, and he thus far faces no primary nor general election opponent. Nor, frankly, would I expect him to.
That’s b/c the big storyline here is that Rep. Williams has all but announced that he is running for Mayor of Wilmington in 2012. And he may well be the early front-runner. He has developed statewide credibility, and fundraising ability, as Joint Finance Committee co-chair. He is a skilled political infighter known for his sharp elbows. If you’re a Democrat even considering a primary, why would you want to cross swords with someone guaranteed to have a long memory if he gets elected Mayor? Better to wait until 2012, when the seat could be a free-for-all, and will look somewhat different following reapportionment. And, if you’re an R, well, take a second look at those registration numbers.
The only reason that there COULD be a primary is b/c (a) sometimes logic is not always a factor used in deciding to run; and (b) sometimes city primaries are crafted not necessarily to oust the incumbent, but rather to drive up vote totals for other, more competitive, primaries. Say, for example, Velda Jones-Potter vs. Chip Flowers.
Regardless, there is a 0% chance that this District changes parties in the RD election. Safe Democratic.
REPRESENTATIVE DISTRICT 2: Hazel D. Plant, Incumbent
Attention! This is a call to action for any credible would-be public servant who resides in the Second Representative District:
On Friday, July 1, 2010, Rep. Hazel Plant filed for reelection. The same Hazel Plant who was unable to attend the last day of legislative session on June 30, 2010, because of her health issues. The same Hazel Plant who has missed close to 50% of all session days this year, if not more.
I have held my fire on her inability to attend out of deference to her health. However, I had previously warned that her unavailability could well leave the House D’s short a vote on key issues. By filing for reelection, she has placed her own selfish considerations ahead of the need of her constituents to be represented in Dover. She is not going to (borrowing a Tony DeLuca word here) ‘miraculously’ get better. I wish I didn’t have to say this, but she is in failing health. In terms of demographics, the district she represents may well be the poorest in the state. Hence, most in need of active representation. The district also includes some of the most environmentally-toxic sites in the state, including Cherry Island.
This northeast Wilmington district is overwhelmingly Democratic, with registration figures of 9382 D’s; 1231 R’s; and 2452 I’s.
This district simply cannot afford the absentee non-leadership of Rep. Plant any more. This district has been in the hands of one family for 34 of the past 36 years. Rep. Plant has been a classy legislator and is a very nice person. But her decision to run for reelection when she can’t even show up for work should not go unchallenged.
The saying, “We get the government we deserve” has been attributed to several people. Rep. A. O. Plant used to drive around with a bumper sticker that read “Don’t Vote, Don’t Bitch”. If someone fails to primary this absentee representative, then she should drive around (were she capable of driving) with a ‘You Got the Government You Deserve’ sticker. With one more word courtesy of P. T. Barnum: “Suckers”.
No matter who gets elected here, there is a 0% chance that the District switches parties. Safe Democratic.
Boy, I think I’m gonna enjoy writing this series! Hope you enjoy reading it.