The ‘Lower 41’: Smith & the City

Three districts. All three tied up in the redistricting politics of 2002, particularly as applied to the City of Wilmington. At least two of the three to inevitably be very much involved in the redistricting of 2012. One of these districts may not even survive.  At least not in Wilmington. Its # could show up in Middletown or even Sussex County. One of the three could ‘return from the dead’.  One thing’s for sure: After what Wayne Smith did to Wilmington in 2002, you can bet it won’t be a primarily minority district that gets excised in 2012.

In 2002, the numbers made clear that Wilmington no longer had sufficient population for five representative districts primarily within city boundaries. Prior to that redistricting, not only did Wilmington have 5 districts, but two of them were ‘minority majority districts’.  Federal civil rights legislation held that, wherever possible and practical, and adhering to standards of compactness and contiguity, districts with minority populations over 50% of the total district population should be crafted.

Of course, former Majority Leader Wayne Smith, who spearheaded the 2002 reapportionment in the House, had built his career on fanning resentments of minorities, using issues like ‘forced busing’, ‘English-only’, and the specter of ‘same-sex marriage’ to help keep himself in office and the Rethugs in control. He wasn’t about to allow something as insidious and intrusive as Federal civil rights law to keep him from his mission of doing whatever it took to keep that majority and, in so doing, to further his ideological agenda. Plus, there was an endangered Rethug incumbent residing within the city limits to protect. What to do? What to do?

The three Wilmington districts in play in 2002 were the 3rd, 4th and 5th.

At the time, the 3rd was a ‘minority-majority’ district held by Rep. Arthur Scott, and including southeast Wilmington, Southbridge, and some heavily minority communities just outside of the City of Wilmington. Previous representatives from this district included Herman Holloway, Jr.; and Jim Sills, who had already gone on to become Mayor of Wilmington.

The 4th was primarily a combination of Trolley Square yuppies and white ethnics from the Flats and the 40 Acres, mostly Irish and Italian. It meandered outside the city limits slightly to take in Westover Hills, which was ideal for its Republican incumbent, Joe DiPinto.

The 5th was one of the most ethnically and racially diverse districts in the state, encompassing both white ethnic enclaves like Hedgeville and Browntown along with a large portion of the predominantly Hispanic community in West Wilmington. Helene Keeley was the representative at the time, having relatively recently won the seat from longtime Rep. Casimir Jonkiert,after a couple of unsuccessful primary attempts.

Smith’s principal concern for these districts was obvious: Protect DiPinto no matter what it takes and work the rest out later. Here’s how he did it. First, kids, please click on District 4 here.

No, your eyes are not deceiving you. The 4th RD now goes from the I-95 exit at Delaware Avenue up through the more tony sections of Wilmington to bleeping Greenville and Montchanin. Gerrymandering at its worst, or best. Perhaps we should call it ‘Gerry’-mandering, as the 4th is now represented by the ADDled and profoundly mediocre Gerald Brady, the undistinguished son of a distinguished political family. He seems intent on building a political legacy based upon putting up as many red light cameras as the public will allow. But, I get ahead of myself.

What was the 5th District is now the 3rd District. Helene Keeley, former 5th RD rep, is now the 3rd RD rep. Her district looks exactly like what city districts generally should look like. As such, it is the 2002 Exception to the Rule instead of the traditional model district it would normally be. It is also, as near as I can tell, virtually completely within the City.

The pre-2002 3rd District no longer exists. The 5th District is no longer a Wilmington area district. Fittingly, its number has resurfaced as one of the most blatantly-gerrymandered districts of all, the Bear-area Barbell District drawn especially for Rep. Melanie George. Don’t believe me? Click on RD 5 and see for yourself.

The areas comprising what once was RD 3 have been divvied up, primarily among Reps. Plant, Keeley and J. J. Johnson, whose 16th District runs from South Wilmington and Southbridge down to New Castle. Click on RD 16 to see what I mean. 16 also includes the primarily African-American community of Dunlieth.

There was an outcry from the black community and organizations like the NAACP over the demise of the 3rd RD, and a threat of legal challenge. Unfortunately, the chief bloviator was full-time windbag and occasional attorney Sam Guy. Once he became the ‘spokesman’, it was obvious nothing would be done. Had there been any real leadership in the black community, I think a lawsuit would have had a good chance of prevailing. Same holds true for the House Democratic Caucus. There were so many legally-questionable aspects to the 2002 plan that I believe it should have been challenged. But it wasn’t. So much for leadership.

This time, I believe that the House will have no choice but to do away with either the 3rd or 4th RD during reapportionment. It would be easy enough to do, should have been done in 2002, and likely would have been done in 2002 were the 4th not held by Joe DiPinto at the time. The least disruptive way to do it would be to take the city portion of the 4th, and divvy it up between the 1st RD (Dennis P. Williams) and the 3rd RD(Keeley). This would especially make sense as Williams is likely to run for Mayor in 2012, so conspiracy theorist Brady would actually have a clean shot at the 1st, although there would almost certainly be a multiple candidate primary there.

The House then could recreate a ‘minority majority district’ by bringing what is currently the 16th more into the city and excising some of its less minority areas. I would hope that this could be done while keeping J. J. Johnson either as the incumbent or in another hospitable district. He is one of the best, albeit, low-key, legislators around. If you don’t know him, he’s worth getting to know.

Enough ‘inside baseball’. Let’s examine the electoral prospects in the 3rd, 4th and 16th RD’s for this year.

The 3rd RD is a rock-solid Democratic district, with 9,111 D’s; 1,210 R’s; and 2,412 I’s. Any action this year would have to be via primary. As yet, no one has filed to challenge Rep. Helene Keeley who, after a halting start, has really grown in office. She still has a bit of the ‘deer in the headlights’ to her, but she is sincere, well-liked by both constituents and the House staff, and she does work real hard for her constituents. Whether or not she draws an opponent in the primary or the general (and I see from Cass that Robert Bovell is likely to file again, probably to shill his bail bond business), she is a shoo-in for reelection.

3rd RD: 100% Likelihood for Democratic Retention

We’ve discussed the 4th RD and its undistinguished placeholder. Let me make it real clear that I have no personal or professional respect for Rep. Gerald Brady. I was assigned to work with him in the House and, at the direction of the Speaker, I was told to impose some organization on him since he is so scatter-brained. It wasn’t my choice, it was what I was told to do. Brady was always very positive and very complimentary to me. So it came as a shock when he went into closed-door caucus and blistered me for trying to force him to do things he didn’t want to do. Like, for example, spending only what he was allotted for tree work in his district. I consider him a gutless backstabber and a phony, which, I think, is understandable since his misrepresentations helped cost me my job after 24 years in Dover. I hope I’m not being too subtle here.

Having said that, excitement over the candidacy of challenger Rick Carroll is decidedly misplaced. Yuppie corporate litigators do not fit the profile of this increasingly Democratic district. Maybe the Greenville/Montchanin portion, but the guy lives in Trolley Square, which limits his political ‘upside’ to one day being the lone Republican on Wilmington City Council. Think Bill Freeborn or Gary Linarducci.

The Democratic margin in this district has  doubled since 2005,  from 1586 more registered D’s than R’s in May, 2005 to 3170 today.

Plus, Brady is electorally popular. He has an idiot savant-like knowledge about virtually every family’s genealogy in the city. He can’t remember what he said two minutes ago, but he can expound on generations of different families’ histories. He also works the senior high rises to perfection, and has mastered the art of harmlessly flirting with the little old ladies.

Two years ago, he demolished blog fave Tyler Nixon, garnering 73.4% of the vote. Look for more of the same this time.

4th RD: 95% Likelihood of Democratic Retention

Part of the 2002 plan for Rethug control consisted of making D districts so chock full of D’s that R’s had a fighting chance in swing districts. It is a very smart, if somewhat obvious, strategy that will be rolled back, at least to an extent, by the D’s. Districts with 9-1 D edges would be no less D at , say, 6-1, but it would free up D voters to be placed in perhaps more competitive districts. This could conceivably happen in the 16th RD, if it doesn’t end up coming further back into Wilmington. Once again, the numbers are ridiculous, 9398 D’s; 1522 R’s; and 2424 I’s. Johnson is popular and, so far, faces no Rethug opposition. For those critical of openings on the ballot, look at numbers like these and ask yourselves, ‘What’s the point?’

16th RD: 100% Likelihood of Democratic Retention