Tobin Looks at (Possibly) Low Wilmington Democratic Primary Turn Out & The (Possible) Impact
John Tobin, Delaware’s best political number cruncher, observes…
(T)he City of Wilmington, where the Democratic primary is often the deciding election, has enough registered Democrats and higher percentage points in turnout than suburban and rural areas to be a major deciding factor in statewide Delaware Democratic primaries and countywide primaries in New Castle County.
However, the fact that the City is not hosting a bunch of Senate and House primaries means that “sitting elected officials, with name recognition,organizations and experience running campaigns” will be on the sidelines this time. That means, with turnout for the state and county wide primaries lower than normal, Wilmington’s king making powers may shift to the NCC suburbs.
Great post by John. I also think that the impact of Wilmington on primaries will lessen. First of all, as someone who also does numbers, I am hard pressed to project a turnout about an average if 15%. The Treasurer’s race in Wilmington will be affected by Organized Labor not taking an open stance in the race. They will be out to support Hazel. Since Helene Keeley’s district has the highest proportion of older, white voters in the city, she’ll win without help from Labor. Bocell will have the Teamsters but they won’t have much impact in that district. Primary election day n the city is the time for some folks to make some money for themselves. There will be a lot of hands out and lots of ‘cutting’, taking money from everyone and producing for nobody. My work on the numbers says that the two statewide races will need a strong, strong, strong ground game in the city.
Another factor affecting the statewide races in New Castle County will be the primaries in the 8th, 9th, 24th and 27th. RD organizations will not put troops out in contested primaries so relationships and energy from the voters is important. Voter loyalty in these instances is generally focused on a single candidate. Endorsements don’t mean anything here and a statewide primary candidate will have to have a firm grasp of the district and a strong presence from their own organization. Tough road to hoe all around!
Finally, this is the first Tuesday primary election in an off year in a long time–since before I started doing elections here more than 25 years ago. The off year, change in election day and statewide party primaries being so low on the ticket, make it hard for the best numbers person to make a projection as John has pointed out.
This will be a very interesting primary.
Thanks, Mark.
I agree this will be an interesting primary.I think, in addition to the organizational issues you mention, the statewide candidates will have to convince people to be excited enough about adminstrative-type positions to come out to vote and vote in their races. I will be posting again in a few days and it looks they face the potential that voters may vote in the local races and leave the booth. I think auditor and treasurer are important positions,but explaining their missions in bite size chunks that voters can digest amid war overseas and the BP disaster consuming the headlines is a tall order for all of those running statewide in 2010.
Great analysis, John and Mark. Good analysis.
Thank God! Maybe now the entire state won’t be controlled by the whims of a bunch of party hacks with political power entirely inversely disproportionate to the size of their brains.
I have yet to see a good politician come out of Wilmington city politics. James Baker seems to be a total loose cannon wacko and Ted Blunt an empty suit.
Speaking of turnout. Celia has a theory that the DEGOP is passing on the AG race in order to try and keep Dems at home who might vote in down ticket races.
The theory assumes republicans have a shot at taking back the house…
Anyone?
http://www.delawaregrapevine.com/7-10houseraces.asp
that may be how they rationalize their inability to recruit a candidate to oppose Jr. Joe…. but it is no plan.
My thought is that by keeping a strong Republican candidate, if they have one, out of the race ensures that the AG race is not ‘nationalized’ because the emphasis would be knocking off someone with the name Biden and bragging rights to wounding the VP.
A strong challenge to Beau Biden brings in a host of national connections and resources in the form of money and personal visits by politicians and others. Certainly there would be visits to the African-American community by members of the Congressional Black Caucus and folks like Jesse Jackson. National organizations on both sides would target money for GOTV and other election activities. That means diverting time and money from other races. There would be participation from national Organized Labor, Women’s and Hispanic organizations. I think that it would also cause the more energized segments of the fringes of the Republicans to get involved and we will begin hearing about immigration and other issues in a very big way. It would polarize our electoral politics in a way we are not used to. A case to support this is the Jane Rweznicki (sp?)/Tom Carper race. Bringing in Ann Stone and her cohort just did not work. Delawareans seem to have an adverse reaction to outsiders taking over local races because we are so used to 1:1 and first name relationships with our candidates. Outside handlers take that element away.
There is also the numbers aspect: low turnouts have more predictable results and more opportunity for control by campaigns. Jack Markell admirably won his primary campaign by pushing the numbers up in Eastern Sussex, a surprise to folks looking at the numbers. Besides, its possible that powder is being kept dry for a Beau run for the Senate after Castle completes this term.
Numbers would have to go up to take back the House in Leg Hall.
Interesting. It sounds very much like Mike Castle said, “We are giving Beau a pass.” Castle, after all would be the one most hurt by the nationalization of DE’s November elections.
So that would explain why the Republican establishment would take a pass on the AG race… But why wouldn’t the TeaPartiers want to get a Biden scalp? Could it be that they have no lawyers in their midst? They have no interest in trying to enforce laws?
In a year where “outsiders” are challenging for US House and Senate Republican nominations, why not put up a Tea Party Candidate that would actually challenge for an uncontested office? Isn’t it rogue AG’s that are filing challenges to HCR?
Although they claim to be ‘nonpartisan’ for the most part it is clear that the TPers see alignment with the Republican Party as their best hope. Most politicians here are more moderate than the national trends. Look at the Republican spread in the federal races: Castle/O’Donnell and Rollins/Urqhart/Izzo. Castle and Rollins clearly hold the party sentiment. DEGOP would not shut TPers and more right leaning candidates out of primaries but they definitely don’t get establishment backing. Mike Protack is an example. By remaining ‘center’ and slightly ‘right of center’, DE Republicans appeal more to the ticket splitting nature of Delaware voters as do Dems with Carper.
Kaufman has been an interesting bit of fresh air but I don’t think he would have been so vocal about what really needs to be done if a candidacy was in his future.
Exactly. So did the Republican party get the TPers to back down and let Beau run unopposed? That seems out of character for the 9-12 lunatics and the rest of the local loco’s.
The local guys keep saying that they want to make their bones by running for offices and out-hustling and out-thinking Republicans and Democrats alike. Isn’t this a perfect opportunity for some pro-gun, anti-healthcare, anti-immigrant tea-partier to rally the troops against a Biden?
I suspect it is because they are either not interested in doing an actual job, or they are cowards.
Expectations.
The Republican Party wasn’t out activly recruiting for an AG candidate 2 years ago because they expected Bo to run for daddies senate seat and Ferris to run for AG. Everybody expected it. it’s the same reason that Coons got a late start.
Bo stayed put and Ferris declined the rematch.
Even though Jr Joe has done a lousey job as AG, nobody wants to get into the game late just to face Daddies war chest and national connections.
If you announced today, you would have 2 months to raise 1-2 million dollars to run in a blue state against the son of the sitting VP.
As for the TP’ers, it’s not that they are lazey or cowardly… they are newbies to politics/campaigning and they just don’t know how to run a state wide race. (What do Coons, Castle, Rollins, Urquarht all have in comon, years of political experiance)
One of my observations about the TPers as they visited Leg Hall was their lack of understanding politics beyond sound bites. Demographically they appear to be part of the highest voting segment of Americans- older, white and middle class but they clearly lack experience. When you ask many of them about their experience in electoral politics and government the usual response is, “I was never involved in politics until now.” They just don’t seem to have the patience for the mechanics of governing. I have faced similar attitudes in working with my own African-American community.
I found this interesting: A member of the 9-12 Tea Party movement gave Senator Ennis an immigration bill from another state with the belief that it should be introduced and passed. Forget that the legislation had to be vetted by the legal staff, a sponsor found, assigned to a committee, heard and voted for release and then a vote in the originating body followed by entry into the process in the remaining body. This is a long process that requires knowledge and engagement in the legislative process. To many TPers that process and its moderating influences seem to be what’s wrong with politics not to matter. They just seem to want their image of America enforced without the need to engage other points of view.
Ish – their inexperience has not deterred them from running for the House. Even in the Senate race, one could argue that O’Donnell is a TP candidate (although she is truly just on an ego trip). And if the Republicans were smart (a stretch, I know) they would give the race to the TPers as a project. Let them fight the fight, make the noise and inflict the damage on Beau, all the while taking a hands-off approach.
Maybe that’s the plan. Maybe the R’s put a TPer on the ticket (they can still name a candidate) and they make the 9-12 idiots happy, all the while setting them up for failure.
I think Mark is way more in tune here. They just have no idea how the process works. In addition, despite the all-walks-of-life assertions, they really don’t have the depth required for a specialized officeholder like AG, Treasurer or Insurance Commissioner.
Lib,
Most people have no idea how the process works, Democrat, Republican, Independant, Green, Tea Party etc.
This year there is no Libertarian, Progressive, Green, Blue Enigma or Tea Party candidate for AG.
It is impressive that a movement that is less than two years old has produce one statewide candidate (Izzo, O’Donnell ran in two races before there was a Tea Party).
This year there is no Libertarian, Progressive, Green, Blue Enigma or Tea Party candidate for AG.
I doubt that the Tea Partiers think of themselves as just as relevant as those parties. And it’s not as if they would have to go it alone. They could go as Republicans (in disguise).
The Tea Party is not a registered political party. They are what they claim, a movement. Therefore, a Tea Party candidate could only run under the banner of one of the registered parties with a ‘Tea Party Philosophy’ since they also don’t have a party platform, just a kettle of positions.
Izzo ran for office at least twice in Pennsylvania, also before there was a Tea Party. Rose Izzo exists mainly to make Christine O’Donnell look like a serious candidate by comparison.