Dem Primary Voters Will Not Care About the Statewide Races

John Tobin’s most recent posts looked at the balance of power during the next Democratic primary shifting away from Wilmington to four Rep Districts with competitive primaries. That makes intuitive sense. The 8th, 9th, 24th and 27th will have people pounding the pavement and making phone calls. But will those phone calls impact the Democratic primary to pick a state Treasurer?

This addition to the series wraps up his turnout analysis with a look at of what kind of drop off poll watchers could expect in these newly minted king making districts.

It turns out there are a measurable chuck of voters that will enter the voting booth to vote in the state rep race and simply pass on picking between Chip Flowers and Velda Jones-Potter race for State Treasurer. (Between you and me, it takes a special kind of apathy to make it all the way into the voting booth and decide to pass on the statewide contest – but Tobin is nonjudgmental. For him, it is all about the numbers. )

The Bottom Line:

I looked at the 9 state rep districts that had local state rep primaries and in 8 of 9 the state rep race had more votes cast than the Insurance Commissioner’s race. In four of those 8 districts the drop off from state representative to Insurance Commissioner was 5% or more.

As is his habit, John crunches the numbers and leaves it for us to decide which candidate is going to benefit from this voter behavior.