Guidelines for drawing districts following the Census call for compactness, contiguity, and honoring the integrity of community, wherever practicable.
Today, we ‘honor’ four districts that were drawn with none of those standards in evidence. Artificial constructs designed to preserve an artificial majority. Any or all of the four could have, and should have, been grounds for a court appeal, but none were forthcoming. Each of the four has an interesting political story accompanying it, and two of the four promise to be very competitive this fall, with party switches definitely in play.
Any one of these four could, and should, have been grounds for a court challenge to the constitutionality of the 2002 reapportionment. Instead, the House Democratic Caucus tried to convince then President Pro-Tem Tom Sharp to increase senate districts by two and house districts by four to give them a better chance. Sharp, and I think correctly, said no way. Additional costs to the taxpayer in a state that is far below the national ratio of constituents to elected legislative officials is not exactly what I’d call ‘good government’.
Kids, you’ll definitely want to refer to the maps of these four abominations as we go along. So, here they are. Remember to click on the RD #: The 10th, 11th, 5th, and 37th.
The 10th Representative District projects to be one of the most competitive districts this fall, and represents perhaps the best opportunity for an R pickup of a seat currently held by a D.
This Brandywine Hundred district was held by Rep. Bob Valihura until 2008, where he was edged out by Dennis E. Williams, 5091-4898. As you can see from the map, it is an insanely gerrymandered district running from the Delaware River in Claymont all the way to Centreville. For a significant portion of its length, the southern district boundary is Naamans Road and the northern boundary is the state line. Anyone who knows the area also knows that there isn’t a whole hell of a lot between these two boundaries. While the current registration figures, 7169 D’s; 5516 R’s; and 3814 I’s, might suggest a relatively solid swing D district, in this case, the numbers lie. Specifically, there’s quite a bit of fool’s gold in them thar numbers. Lots of apartments, plus large communities like Greentree, which chronically underperform voting norms. Only the presence of Obama on the ticket jacked up turnout to a point where Williams was able to squeak through.
Williams was also helped by the McGlincheys and the Laborers’ Union, who, in effect, ran Williams’ campaign. This was a payback campaign, Bill McGlinchey having narrowly lost an election to Valihura. The point I’m making here is: Williams was put over the top b/c of the obsession of the McGlincheys. He had next to no significant organization of his own. With Valihura not running, it remains to be seen whether, and to what extent, Williams will be the beneficiary of a similar effort this time. If he’s not, he’d better put together an effective campaign team on his own.
His opponent, Robert Rhodunda, is right out of the Greg Lavelle Training Academy. Like Lavelle, he is from the insurance field. Like Lavelle, he has served his time in the Council of Civic Organizations of Brandywine Hundred, which has devolved from a legitimate voice for the region into a launching pad for political wannabes. He’s even put in the requisite 5-year Little League stint.
Fortunately for Williams, he has a chance to put an organization together. He has a ‘primary’ which appears to be nothing more than a name on the ballot. Some guy named Kenneth Dargis, who doesn’t even include a website or e-mail address on his filing. The best that I can come up with is this letter to the editor where he castigates Sen. Kaufman and ‘liberals’. In other words, this guy at best is a Rethug plant. The irony, of course, is that Williams can campaign full bore and collect twice from contributors, once for the primary, once for the general. The question is: Will he?
Williams is a reliable Markell vote in Dover (Markell lives in his district), and I think he’s generally been good on the issues. However, if he remains as passive as he’s been during his first term, it will be his last term.
Likelihood of a Party Switch to R: 56%
The 11th District should have been one of the most competitive districts this fall, what with Gaseous Grandstander Greg Lavelle campaigning for Speaker instead of reelection. His Partisanship Uber Alles and his pomposity place him somewhere on the Likeability Scale between Newt Gingrich and Arlen Specter. His sole skill appears to be feigning outrage, usually in front of microphones. Other than when it comes to pedophile priests, his feigned outrage knows no limits.
Uh, except that the targets are always political ones or serve a political purpose. Why, just this week, there’s Lavelle expressing outrage that the AG hasn’t let him in on what the Department of Justice intends to do regarding the Minner/Tigani, et al sweetheart deals on Route 1. Sure the Feds are investigating, and the AG’s office is planning action, but dammit, nobody is replying to Greg Lavelle’s e-mails! Memo to Greg Lavelle: How about releasing the e-mails you sent to the do-nothing State Auditor about why he isn’t investigating ‘sales’ of government land for $1 along a busy highway? Oh, that’s right. You didn’t SEND any. Or, how about expressing outrage over the continuing failure to release the House travel records from Terry Spence’s ignoble time as speaker? Oops, wrong party.
Let me make this real clear. I hope the state and the Feds throw the book at these ‘public servants’ who disgraced their offices as well as their corporate beneficiaries. But Lavelle’s feigning of outrage is as phony as his justification for protecting pedophile priests. Update: Lavelle’s back in the paper today feigning outrage over the plea deal of a Laurel School District treasurer. He’d do well to feign outrage (he’s incapable of the real thing) over the dire economic straits facing thousands of his Claymont-area constituents.
But, I digress. Go back to the above link and click on the 11th RD. Clearly, Lavelle wasn’t outraged about this gerrymandered monstrosity. Nor should he be since the feckless D’s have failed to challenge one of the most vulnerable incumbents around. Here’s my story on this district from April of last year. He was vulnerable then and even more vulnerable now. But not if no one challenges him. While there’s talk of a challenger in the wings, until it happens, it’s just talk.
Likelihood of R Retention: 90%. Only because a two-month candidacy just might catch fire, if there IS a two-month candidacy. Almost happened to Bill Oberle in 2008.
The 5th Representative District is the notorious ‘Barbell District’ crafted specifically for Melanie George. The D’s claim they had nothing to do with this, and that the Rethugs were so scared of her that they created the safest district possible for her. As an isolated fact, there may well be some truth to it. But crafting this district also enabled the R’s to eliminate a Wilmington minority-majority district, and to screw Rep. Rick Di Liberto, who admittedly set himself up by moving further out into the Newark-area ‘burbs. It also had ripple effects throughout the entire redistricting process b/c the stuffing of so many D’s into this district enabled R’s to have competitive districts where otherwise they’d be hopelessly outnumbered.
The real story of this district, however, is its blatant gerrymandering and the violation of just about every standard of redistricting that it demonstrates. Elimination of a minority district? Check. Ignoring the requirement for compactness? Check. Ignoring the guideline for contiguity? Check. There, of course, is another big story. The utter failure of the D House leadership to challenge this district and the others referenced in this article in court. The ‘leadership’ instead sought a political solution consisting of adding four house districts in 2002. When this costly and pointless scheme was dashed by President Pro-Tempore Sharp, as it should have been, the ‘leadership’ folded its cards. The courts had already threatened to take action if the sides could not reach agreement. The plan that was enacted had so many violations of redistricting protocol that the D’s had every possibility of prevailing in court. They chose not to, and, as one of the byproducts of that decision, Melanie George got her safe barbell district.
In general, Melanie George is one of Dover’s better legislators, the R’s have not filed a challenger, nor would they want to do anything to drive up vote totals in this insanely-solid D district. Check out these registration figures: 8869 D’s; 2323R’s; and 2936 I’s. Just about a 4-1 edge in a suburban New Castle County district. I’ll be interested to see what happens with this district in reapportionment. If Melanie George has any leadership aspirations in the caucus, and she’s certainly qualified, she’ll do well to ‘share the wealth’ with some of her colleagues with far less hospitable districts. Oh, and she’ll make sure it looks like a ‘real’ district. Barbells are for dummies.
Likelihood of D Retention: 100%
37th Representative District. It’s trivia time, kids: Who was the 37th District Rep immediately prior to the 2002 redistricting? Time’s up. Democrat John Schroeder was the Representative, and he defeated Betty Crystal, Terry Spence’s secretary (I’m not making this up), by a 65.9% to 34.1% margin. Following redistricting, Schroeder lost to Joe Booth by 44 votes out of over 6500 cast. What happened? Reapportionment, that’s what.
Schroeder represented the interests of coastal area Sussex County, and was doing a superb job in battling excessive development in eastern Sussex, without, of course, any help from the bought-and-paid-for Sussex County Council. The pre-2002 district was a compact and contiguous district, and constituents within the district largely shared similar concerns. Now, go back up and click on the current 37th District map. What Wayne Smith and the Rethugs did in 2002 was to take a tiny corner of Schroeder’s district in the Lewes area and to draw the district west and south to encompass virtually the entirety of Georgetown and rural areas south of Georgetown. Not only do Georgetown and Lewes have virtually nothing in common, but, when it comes to development and protection of Delaware’s shoreline, they often have diametrically opposing interests.
So, not only did Smith succeed in making this a much more conservative and rural district, he succeeded in stilling a voice for environmental accountability as well.This district should have been challenged in court if, for no other reason, the blatant drawing of Lewes into an area that was anathema to protection of the coastal interests. But, of course, that wasn’t done.
This promises to be a competitive district this fall. The incumbent, Ruth Briggs King, won the seat in the domino-effect aftermath of Thurman Adams’ death which led to the election of Rep. Joe Booth to the Senate and the open seat race in the 37th. Although the numbers marginally favor the D’s, this is clearly at best a swing-Republican district. The district has 5653 registered D’s; 5391 R’s; and 3191 I’s. Briggs King won a competitive race with Ron Robinson, who ran a superb race. I hope he runs for elective office again. Perhaps after reapportionment.
For this go-round, realtor and former lobbyist Briggs King faces Frank Shade, the Punkin’ Chunkin’ guy. The question remains whether the Lewes-based Shade will be able to make sufficient inroads into the Georgetown and rural areas of the district. His background suggests that he sure could, but his government experience could be viewed as a net negative by the trogs in his district.
Admitting my cluelessness when it comes to Sussex County, I rate this as a 65% Likely Republican Retention. Sometimes, geography is destiny.
I encourage anyone here who ‘speaks Sussex County’ to give me their take on this race.
Whew, didn’t figure that I’d crank out close to 2,000 words when I started this one. I’ll try to be more concise next time. And, I’ll fail.