Comment Rescue: Is Rollins In Trouble
A lot of commenters have noticed that despite Rollins’s impressive fundraising quarter, her campaign barely has a pulse. Geezer’s thoughts on Rollins:
Comment by Geezer on 28 July 2010 at 8:07 am:
I really think Rollins is in real trouble. The GOP has been trying for years to get her to run, but she never took the plunge, so there’s not much fire in her belly. I wonder if leadership didn’t put her up to this so the wingnut wing wouldn’t waltz to an unopposed slot on the November ballot, and she signed on thinking this would be easy.
The GOP peasants are in revolt, and they’re marching on the castle with their torches and pitchforks. Reminds me that Mike Castle used to dress up for the Newark Halloween parade as Frankenstein’s monster.
As I noted before, Rollins had no trouble winning the Republican endorsement at the convention. Urquhart was the one who could barely win his own county. Several commenters think that the convention delegates may be significantly different than the primary electorate as a whole, actually less conservative than primary voters as a whole.
Miscreant adds further evidence of a sagging Rollins campaign:
Comment by Miscreant on 28 July 2010 at 1:26 am:
“Rollins seems a bit disengaged but she sure got the moneybags to open their wallets to her.”
You couldn’t tell that by her display at the State Fair today. Her unstaffed exhibit was rather sparse, comparatively. A few pieces of literature, and a pile deflated balloons. By comparison, the Hollywood Racing Pigs attraction was spectacular.
Tags: DE-AL, Michele Rollins
I haven’t seen them in person, but Rollins is trying to mouth the same conservative talking points that Glen Urquhart seems to believe quite passionately. All the money in Jamaica can’t make a fake Tea Partier sound more sincere than a real Tea Partier.
Jason nailed it: Protack’s perpetual prediction is finally coming true, and he’s stuck running for a minority-party seat on County Council.
If Rollins is mouthing Tea Party platitudes then she has lost. That means she thinks she needs them to win. It could be an interesting election season on the Republican side if this is true.
I think Rollins is far more endangered than Metamucil Mike.
She acts as if this was a coronation, and as if her endorsement at the Rethug convention was tantamount to securing the nomination itself.
She is now forced to rely on Castle’s coattails, but a megamillionaire who has been virtually invisible in Delaware outside of Chateau Country will not have the same degree of support as someone who everyone knows, for better or for worse. She has to get out and meet the voters, which means no more Jamaica for the next 4 months.
I think we need to strike a cautionary note here, however. We really don’t yet know the degree of impact that will be felt if and when the Teabag Onslaught gets under way. Maybe it will turn out to be a lot of sound and fury signifying nothing transferable to political influence or actual votes.
But, if there’s a real grassroots movement here, then I sure as bleep wouldn’t want to be an adviser to Castle. I mean, what does he do? Diss the whackos and see them sit at home in November? Proudly proclaim his moderation and see them sit home in November? Veer rightward and alienate moderate R’s and D’s who might otherwise consider voting for him? As Geezer pointed out, just having a bunch of volunteers showing up at events wearing green and blue Castle T-shirts ain’t gonna cut it if this movement is real. Which is all he’s really had to do for some 20 years now.
I know what I’d do if I were Chris Coons. Just run straight ahead on the issues, and enjoy the Rethug circular firing squad from afar and w/o comment. Let it speak for itself.
For those saying that O’Donnell’s a whacko, of course she is. I think Charles Bouvier de Flanders Copeland is as well, a true Steve Forbes whacko. But, a Christine O’Donnell with $$’s is a whacko who can do some damage, especially to the Rethugs. And the beauty of it is that the more the Delaware Way establishment, including the News-Journal, dismisses her, the more resolute her supporters become.
This could be the coolest election year EVER in Delaware.
Haven’t all Republicans been mouthing these same anti-tax, anti-government platitudes for years? They don’t govern that way, but they usually run that way. They spend the money to keep the peasants at their plows so they don’t have to face their wrath in primaries. Ain’t gonna work that way this year.
I’ve thought that Coons could see benefits of the anti-incumbent mood this year, but I didn’t think it would take out Castle or Rollins.
Yes, ‘Bulo, you’re absolutely right – we need to wait and see how big this Tea Party movement gets in Delaware before we can really judge. Their rallies have been somewhat scarcely attended but I don’t think there’s been much attention paid to Delaware by national groups.
El Som: At least Charlie is a whacko with the right priority — preaching the supply-side gospel. O’Donnell’s brand is socially based, and therefore distasteful to Chateau Country folks.
“Christine O’Donnell with $$’s is a whacko who can do some damage,” This is true. I get the sense that the conservative goon squad she has assembled isn’t as interested in wining in November as they are in getting another RINO trophy in September. They are Republican nihilists who just want to fuck shit up.
One thing I’ve been wondering is how many of the supporters of GU and CO remembered to check their registration by the end of March. I’ve read enough anon commenters on other blogs (including ours where a single anon used three different handles to make this point) that claim there is a surge of people switching to R to vote for GU, but the problem arises around if this supposed surge is recent, not several months ago. If (IF) all that is true, they can’t vote in the Primary anyway.
UI: I don’t think they have a prayer in November. But they don’t have to; remember, Mike Protack’s goal has always been to depose the du Pont wing of the party. That is achievable, though of course they’re such bozos that they can’t be considered favorites. I agree with El Som, Rollins is far more vulnerable than Castle, for the reasons he cites.
The teabaggers are making a lot of anti Castle/Rollins noise, but is there any evidence the usual NCC moderates and establishment Republicans will sell out their long-time favorites and go for a fringe teabagger instead?
To make this happen, the teabag contingent would have to make daily treks from downstate in large numbers to do doorknocking and get the word out about their candidates, and then do massive GOTV. And they would have to somehow appear sane while doing it.
Upstate Republicans voted for Markell in large numbers. I don’t see them having a burning desire to move to the right.
Smitty: That could be a factor. But how many of the 6,000 Rs who switched to D so they could vote for Markell forgot to switch back? That big surge was mostly from exactly the sort of GOPer who backs Castle and, by extension, Rollins. I actually know a few who did not switch back on purpose, claiming they didn’t leave the party, the party left them. That’s just anecdotal evidence, but these were the kind of folks who did bother to vote in primaries. The Chateau Country core is gray and getting grayer.
Clearly the center of gravity is still above the fall line. There are a large number of variables this year though. Mike’s ability to punch back. The relative levels of passion of the two camps. The fact that it is a primary. Rollins’ lethargy vs. Urquhart’s energy.
Smitty makes a great point. There are a large number of registered Independents. That is one positive for Castle.
“is there any evidence the usual NCC moderates and establishment Republicans will sell out their long-time favorites and go for a fringe teabagger instead?”
They don’t have to defect, anon. They just have to stay home. The more the wingnuts call Castle a liberal, the more likely some moderates are to say there’s no difference between him and Coons anyway (remember, Coons is hardly a liberal; he’s straight from the DLC mold). Only 20,000 bothered to show up to vote for William Swain Lee over Protack. That’s the number Urquhart and O’Donnell have to aim for.
There were some moderate Rs that switched to D in 2008, so the GOP has moved rightward.
anon,
I agree it’s still going to be very difficult for GU and CO to win in September. One way could be to run a nasty campaign so that voters stay home. I think we’re all questioning – do Castle Republicans have passion like O’Donnell Republicans do?
I’m really curious to see what Castle’s reaction will be. He’s moved steadily rightward. Will he start pandering to the wingnuts (and can we get it on video)?
They just have to stay home. JINX!
UI, I hope you don’t mind, but I changed the story avatar when I found this great photo of Michelle Rollins standing in front of her country’s flag.
LOL, nemski.
Can I also add I can’t wait until Republican David or one of the Protackians is magnetically attracted to this thread.
So if GU wins the primary, will his being on the slate with MC be enough to drag down the ticket (and affect some of the down-ballot races, too)? Or will MC disassociate himself from GU causing the teabagges to pass on voting in the Senate race? This could be a very interesting year indeed.
But I see Rollins signs in front of Grotto’s Pizzas!
I’m waiting to see if Castle or Rollins goes negative. Lord knows they have plenty of ammunition if they want to run attack ads.
Castle has to just keep smiling and tough it out. He can’t go negative because his nice guy image is all he’s got. Maybe he’ll use surrogates. Plus, O’Donnell has the Protackian immunity to negative revelations.
Rollins on the other hand probably has room to go negative in person. Establishing a clear separation from teabaggers would probably help in November.
The thing is, any negative ads would have to focus on the opponent, not on the teabagger philosophy. Because if you attack teabaggerism in Delaware, you are stepping on Pete du Pont’s toes.
Just a little something to make youe day
http://www.flixxy.com/burj-khalifa-fountain-dubai-time-to-say-goodbye.htm
Tom Ross already attacked O’Donnell. Don’t have time to find the link, but he brought up all the negative revelations from the News Journal story — which makes it pretty clear where all that negative information came from.
UI: A negative campaign is more likely to stimulate Castle voters to defend him; it would therefore be a mistake. Which means that’s probably the route the Tea Sippers will take. They’re nothing if not divorced from reality.
Put it somewhere else. This isn’t an open thread.
Here’s the quote Geezer, from yesterday’s Politico story:
As someone noted above, none of that matters to true believers. To them, these facts are like the lash marks on the back of Our Savior.
What do “moderate” republicans really have left to fight for? DLC dems have co-opted their whole raison d’etre. They must be saying, “fuck these hayseed religious fanatics, they can have it” or something to that effect.
HERE’S what they have left to fight for:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XV4E9VUe3JE
Someone at Red State just came up with a nickname for Castle that has stickiness – “tax hike Mike” you know… because he voted for “Cap and Tax”
I’d fight for the 1973 version of Streisand. Heck, I’d fight for the 1973 version of Redford in a Naval officer uniform.
We will welcome all who are concerned about the debtor nation that is America. Moderate, Libertarian, Social Conservative, Fiscal Conservative, or Independent thinker will be all welcomed under the Urquhart banner now and in November.
I really do think that Mrs. Rollins will become the second endorsed candidate to lose. They are working hard, but they have been outmatched, outwitted, and outmanuvered again and again. This is a conservative year. I believe 1/3 voters in the primary will be tea party this year and social conservatives will be energized with the prospect of victory that is 60% of the party.
I think the winner in the Senate race is impossible to know. If Ms. O’Donnell wins the house race is almost a given because of the nature of the electorate. Mr. Castle could pull out a win and if he does, he had better hope that Mr. Urquhart is the winner. A Castle Urquart ticket will be his best bet for getting the tea party vote out. They will come out to vote for the house race and vote for Castle just to protest against Obamacare. I can’t see a Castle Rollins ticket motivating them. It would have to come from down ballot races.
Let me run this through my wingnut to English translation software…”We will welcome all who are concerned about the debtor nation that is America.”
Okay…here it is, “Tax cuts, tax cuts, tax cuts, no gays allowed!”
GOPers have already bailed on the anti-gay crusade. Even teabaggers are maintaining tight discipline and keeping their traps shut about social conservatism, to keep up the pretense of being fiscal conservatives who don’t care about social issues.
A middle class tax cut bill with no tax cuts for the rich will cleave Republicans in two.
Like others have said, this could potentially turn into a really interesting race. Negative attacks from Rollins will probably only rile up Urquhart supporters. I doubt the reverse is true, especially if she’s just phoning it in as it appears.
Here’s an anecdote:
Free Radical and I went to the Ukranian Festival in May and Rollins was there. I don’t know if she had been doing meet & greet before I arrived but she didn’t introduce herself to me, Free Radical or the many people who came in after us. She was talking to one person and then she left.
Mike Matthews also posted something on facebook about seeing Rollins at some big gathering in Wilmington and she and her staff just talked to each other the whole time.
I know this isn’t really data, but she’s starting to sound like the newest version of Bill Lee.
So in David’s view 60% of the Republican electorate are either Tea Party and/or social conservatives. Just curious, where did you get that number?
On second thought, I’ll just keep that one to myself.
Oh just for another piece of data, what was Protack’s share of the vote against Lee?
Memories, too funny El Som and Jason.
Attend Founders Values meeting tonight to hear more.
The truth of the matter is simple, Rollins was damaged goods from the start but the GOP only cares about who can self fund or who they can control.
Now for Protack. Most of in the Tea Party movement support him but we are always a bit worried because he still supports Castle for strange reason. At the last Tea Party planning he was the guy who suggested Pete DuPont as the main speaker, I almost fell out of my chair. Turns out he was right as Pete did a good job and for what it is worth so did Protack. The weird thing about Mike is I have never seen anyone so unswayed by what people think of him when it comes to petty attacks and the non stop conspiracies of the Delaware GOP. In on breath they say he is dumb as fecal matter and in the next breath he is smarter than Karl Rove?
Also, Protack is a union member and despite the conservative label supported a version of universal health care and won’t go 100% for the Life cause or stand against Gay unions. He is suspect on those but pretty good on the financial issues.
The tough part is pretty simple to most of us, we know our candidates can win the primary but as the general is another thing altogether. Copeland and Protack know that fact and are sitting this one out to see where the chips fall. It looks like a good GOP year for everywhere but Delaware and if so then the apparatchiks who run the Delaware GOP such as Ross, Forsten and Rakestraw are going to have to struggle to get a job on the third shift as a Dairy Queen.
What the GOP can’t stand is Protack with no local money and total GOP headquarters against him did a respectable job against Lee both times. Without ODonnell he would have won easily but still would have gotten creamed by Carper.
The next GOP convention will be completely irrelevant to anyone as the script never changes and the song is getting old.
If the GOP only cared about candidates who could “self fund” why did they throw Urquhart under the bus at the first sign Rollins was interested?
Protack got his ass handed to him by Bill Lee. He couldn’t break 30% in the primary against a retiree who didn’t even show up at the Convention to accept the endorsement. What a humiliation. Respectable? Maybe in Protack’s driveway that’s respectable but not in reality.
And now that Protack and his flock of greasy cabana boys are all over O’Donnell and Uruqhart’s campaigns, he’ll just lose 3 times this September instead of the usual one, big, humiliating loss. Protack sitting it out? Then why was he doing a lit drop with Urquhart?
As for Rollins, I’m sure she’s not sweating it, one week of ads that feature, “The next time your liberal friends talk about separation of church and state ask them why they’re Nazis” and New Castle County GOPers come out in droves to stop the nut job uprising.
“Also, Protack is a union member and despite the conservative label supported a version of universal health care and won’t go 100% for the Life cause or stand against Gay unions. He is suspect on those but pretty good on the financial issues.”
I have a question, Teabag…
what is more important? Fiscal responsibility or fighting the “gay unions”… i didnt even know they were unionized.
What a joke of a political movement. Absolute hate peppered with greed.
Miss Jamaica 1963 was at Jack Markell’s Summerbash back in June, and she was working the crowd (as we were standing in line to get at the fantastic food – much better than at Curly’s Confederate gangbang last week, but I digress). Problem was that 95% of the people there were Democrats and couldn’t figure out why she was there. And then we spotted Montgomery Burns wandering around. Miss Jamaica couldn’t figure out why we were looking at her as if she had made a wrong turn and was supposed to be somewhere else.
She is not a good campaigner, almost afraid to talk to people. But she did win a beauty contest, I mean a scholarship pagent, and she did sleep at at Holiday Inn Express last night. So I guess she’s qualified to run for Congress.
…Protack know that fact and are sitting this one out …
Huh?
If Rollins is the campaigner these anecdotes indicate, it’s truly ironic, because that’s exactly Mike Protack’s problem — he’s not a people person. Mainstream Republicans I know say that when he attends events he creeps everybody out by sitting alone or with his wife. He doesn’t mix and mingle and press the flesh, the basic qualification for politics, and therefore will never get elected.
One GOP insider I know put it best: “Talk with him for 10 minutes and you think he belongs on the ticket. Talk with him for an hour and you think he belongs on the next bus to the asylum.”
“(as we were standing in line to get at the fantastic food – much better than at Curly’s Confederate gangbang last week, but I digress).”
That’s so funny MJ, I wrote the same thing over at DP awhile back.
I met Glen today at the State Fair. His salutation to me was “we need to take back our country.”
All I could muster was a lol.
Too bad you were not composes enough to say, “Glen, you are a wealthy developer. Who the fuck do you want to take the country back from?”
His answer: “The zoning boards.”
lol.
Did you see this one?
Urquhart new video:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6HtdgJzxOgg