THE SENATE

As you can see, it is impossible for the GOP to win back the Senate. They need to pick up 5 seats, and the only toss up race I foresee is one they will be defending, Cathy Cloutier in the 5th. They may be able to make the 7th, 8th, and 15th Senate Districts competitive (where I have categorized the races as “Lean Democratic”). But to win the Senate, they would not only have to win those three districts, but also pull shocking and miraculous victories over Karen Peterson and Bruce Ennis to get to a pick-up of five seats they would need to capture the majority, all the while holding onto to the competitive 5th Senate District. I simply do not see it happening. I think it is possible, perhaps likely, that the Republicans will knock off one of the three “Lean D” districts, with Patty Blevins being the most obvious choice since Fred Cullis decided to withdraw from his quixotic race for the US Congress to focus his energies on Patty. Or it could be longtime incumbent Nancy Cook in Kent County. But that pickup will be offset from what I see as the long awaited defeat of Cathy Cloutier in the 5th.

So, if I were a betting man, I would once again, predict that the Senate, like the House, will remain exactly the same, with there being 15 Democrats and 6 Republicans.

(5) CATHY CLOUTIER—Toss-up. The Beast who Slumbers has written extensively about Cathy Cloutier and her status as the most endangered Republican in the Senate. He has also met with her opponent this time around, Christopher Counihan. You can read his post resulting from that interview here. Here is an excerpt:

I met with Counihan last week at Brew Ha Ha, and came away with the distinct sense that the race is now his to lose. Counihan has […] been working on the campaign for several months, has put together a very strong campaign team and, most importantly of all, will make a very positive impression with voters. […] He has a PhD. and teaches international relations at the University of Delaware. In addition to his business background, outlined at his website, he has also taught at St. Joe’s, Immaculata College, and West Chester University. He will be in a position to wage an aggressive door-to-door campaign, and says that he loves to do so. […] He is very involved with the Claymont Community Center and the Claymont Renaissance, and is working on a very exciting project that could prove to be invaluable to Claymont’s economic recovery.

The key question in this race is who will get the support of organized labor? In 2006, Cloutier begged them to support her again, and they did, and she barely slipped past an unknown candidate in Pat Morrison. Will Labor do that again? If they support Counihan, he wins going away. If they support the Republican Cloutier, it is quite possible Cloutier will squeeze by yet again, but it is just as possible that Counihan will win without their help, and then he owes them nothing.

(7) PATTY BLEVINS—Lean Democratic. Fred Cullis is the Majority Leader’s opponent this time around. She won with 73% in 2006. Fred Cullis might want to consider changing his website domain name, as it still says Cullis for Delaware, a remnant from his Congressional race. But I guess Cullis for the Seventh doesn’t sound as good. Cullis’ name recognition is probably higher than most of Blevins’ past opponents, but does that translate into making this race competitive? And do our progressive frustrations with Blevins equate to her constituents’ frustration with her, and is Cullis an acceptable replacement for her in their eyes? Those unanswered questions are why I classify this as a Lean Democratic race.

(8) DAVID SOKOLA—Lean Democratic. I classify this as a Lean Democratic race only because Sokola won in 2006 with “only” 57% of the vote. For a Senator who has been in office since 1990, that seems low to me, but then again, that was a vast improvement over the 51% he received in 2002. So I may be just talking out of my ass, but I just feel like this race might be competitive. I cannot tell if his challenger, Republican Louis Saindon, is a credible candidate who can make this race competitive. Bulo calls Saindon “one of those cookie cutters from another Rethug front organization–Leadership Delaware.”

(9) KAREN PETERSON—Safe Democratic. The Progressive champion, who was unopposed in 2006, is being challenged by Robert S. Johnston, who resigned his position as President of the Exton, PA Chamber of Commerce to take on this race. Johnston does live in Newark, he just works in Pennsylvania, which is fine since I do too. Here is an interesting tidbit: Johnston’s wife, Karen, is a Democrat. I wonder who she will be voting for. LOL.

(14) BRUCE ENNIS—Safe Democratic. Ennis seems well suited for his district, but this will be his first race for reelection. His opponent, John Moritz, is a Townsend resident and the President of Delta Engineering Corp., an aeronautical engineering firm.

(15) NANCY COOK—Lean Democratic. I classify this as a Lean Democratic district due to the conservative nature of the district, Cook’s longevity in the seat (i.e. voters may be looking for a change), and this being a Republican year. If the GOP had a credible challenger, this would probably be a competitive toss up race. Is Republican David Lawson a credible challenger? He is a retired Delaware State Police lieutenant and current owner of the “Shooter’s Choice” gun store in Dover. He is a certified firearms instructor, teaching the course that applicants for a concealed-carry permit must pass.