Rasmussen: Castle 49, Coons 37
Grain of salt, given Rasmussen’s history, but here are their latest numbers of the Delaware Senate race.
Castle 49 (+2 from last month)
Coons 37 (+1)
Coons 46 (+5)
O’Donnell 36 (-3)
Castle still under 50. The +2 for Castle and +1 for Coons is not significant, as it could be just noise. Next week, we will get the results of the first Public Policy Polling (PPP) poll of this race.
Rasmussen finds that the key to Castle leading is winning the support of Democrats. Right now, Coons gets only 56% of the Democratic vote if Castle is the GOP nominee. If O’Donnell is the nominee, Coons gets 75% of the Democrats. You have to imagine both figures will go up as the campaign goes on, especially if O’Donnell is the nominee (it will be in the 90’s). To prevent Castle from winning, Coons must get over 70% of Democratic support, so he has work to do in that regard.
What is also interesting, given all the teabagger talk that Castle is just a RINO, is this finding: Castle gets 81% of the Republican vote but O’Donnell only gets 66%. The reason for the latter of course is the Delaware GOP electorate is not as conservative as the teabaggers believe. Most identify with the Chateau / Greenville wing of the party harking back to the days of DuPont and … ahem… Castle. These Republicans do not identify with Sarah Palin.
Overall, the Rasmussen sample of Delaware voters is pretty content. 47% rate their personal finances as good or excellent, while only 14% say their finances are poor. However, 42% think their finances are getting worse.
55% of Delaware voters approve of the job Barack Obama is doing as president. 44% disapprove. 65% approve of Governor Jack Markell’s performance.
UPDATED: The New Pollster.com average including the latest poll, showing a great trend line.
Also, Dialogue Delaware put together a table based off these results that I think is very revealing.
Coons is rated as Very to Somewhat Conservative by 16% of the sample. Now, I have to think that those thinking that Coons is a conservative to any degree are pretty liberal themselves. Because I doubt a conservative would think Coons is a conservative. You would have to think that these liberals will be in Coons’ corner in the end. Coons is rated as very liberal by 9% of the population. Again, I am guessing that those thinking Coons is very liberal are conservatives, and they won’t be in Coons’ corner in the end. Coons is rated as a Moderate to Somewhat Liberal by 57% of the sample.
Castle is rated as Very to Somewhat Conservative by 54% of the sample, while only 30% see him as a Moderate. That is very interesting. Castle’s brand, and the reason he has always won in this Democratic state, is that was a mainstream Moderate. Looks like that brand is getting tattered by his constant obstruction and voting with the Party of No in the House. Castle is rated as somewhat to very liberal by 9% of the sample, and those people must be teabaggers.
O’Donnell is viewed as Very Conservative by 40% of the sample, with an additional 21% saying she is somewhat conservative. 21% have no clue. And only 18% consider her to be Moderate, Somewhat or Very Liberal. So O’Donnell seems to be pigeonholed into the conservative side of the spectrum, not an easy place to be in a general election in a blue state.
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Castle and Coons have the same “very liberal” rating. Interesting. There’s your hardcore conservatives there.
Rassy sucks and WDEL’s Alan Loudell sucks for pretending that they are “non-partisan.”
Oh la la, I love that trend line though.
“The reason for the latter of course is the Delaware GOP electorate is not as conservative as the teabaggers believe.”
That could be said for many areas of the country, I’m guessing. I hope it’s their downfall.
The fact that Castle doesn’t break 50% on a Raggamuffin poll is quite encouraging. This race is in play, methinks.
I think the key is whether Coons runs as a Democrat and paints Castle as the faux-moderate corporate whore he is, or whether he is just a ‘me-too’ candidate. ‘Me-too’ will not mobilize the base.
If this is just a race between two Carperesque candidates, the excitement factor won’t be there. Speaking of the lack of an ‘excitement factor’, can anything say ‘I’m boring’ more than Coons’ signs? They’re bor-r-r-r-ing.
You and the Coons signs. Is it because it is on a white background? If they were exactly same but with a blue background and white lettering, would you be ok with? You know who has boring signs? Castle. Because they have been the same for 20 years. But he is not changing them because they are visibly effective.
The point of a sign is visibility. They must be easy to see and understand as you drive past. So there can be no straining of the eyes to figure out what the sign says.
The thing I like about Coons signs is I see a lot of them popping up as I drive around New Castle County.
‘Boring’ is faded maroon/brown and black lettering on a white background. Since the ‘excitement factor’ is what Chris lacks, maybe colors at least a LITTLE bolder would suggest that Coons is at least a LITTLE bolder than Castle.
Granted, a small point, and, yes, the most important thing is to see a lot of ’em, but, IMHO, a small opportunity missed.
Of course, I wouldn’t want to go to the extreme ridiculousness of a sign that reads “CHRIS!” Ruth Ann Minner already made that mistake, although those signs are keepers. Preferably on a wall facing a coffee table and a bong.
A couple more points on signs. I think it’s easier to see a name on a sign with reverse lettering on a color background. Makes the name stand out more, and the color calls attention to it.
And, if the first name is important, you don’t use a color that looks like it’s faded before it’s faded. Makes it tougher to see. I invite ANYone to explain the logic of that maroon/brown color to me.
Finally, and granted this is stretching it, I wonder about the acumen of a campaign that gets its sign design wrong. Again, just a little thing, but it nags at me…maybe they want us to think that he IS boring. Which is not the message I’d be pushing.