Grain of salt, given Rasmussen’s history, but here are their latest numbers of the Delaware Senate race.
Castle 49 (+2 from last month)
Coons 37 (+1)
Coons 46 (+5)
O’Donnell 36 (-3)
Castle still under 50. The +2 for Castle and +1 for Coons is not significant, as it could be just noise. Next week, we will get the results of the first Public Policy Polling (PPP) poll of this race.
Rasmussen finds that the key to Castle leading is winning the support of Democrats. Right now, Coons gets only 56% of the Democratic vote if Castle is the GOP nominee. If O’Donnell is the nominee, Coons gets 75% of the Democrats. You have to imagine both figures will go up as the campaign goes on, especially if O’Donnell is the nominee (it will be in the 90’s). To prevent Castle from winning, Coons must get over 70% of Democratic support, so he has work to do in that regard.
What is also interesting, given all the teabagger talk that Castle is just a RINO, is this finding: Castle gets 81% of the Republican vote but O’Donnell only gets 66%. The reason for the latter of course is the Delaware GOP electorate is not as conservative as the teabaggers believe. Most identify with the Chateau / Greenville wing of the party harking back to the days of DuPont and … ahem… Castle. These Republicans do not identify with Sarah Palin.
Overall, the Rasmussen sample of Delaware voters is pretty content. 47% rate their personal finances as good or excellent, while only 14% say their finances are poor. However, 42% think their finances are getting worse.
55% of Delaware voters approve of the job Barack Obama is doing as president. 44% disapprove. 65% approve of Governor Jack Markell’s performance.
UPDATED: The New Pollster.com average including the latest poll, showing a great trend line.
Also, Dialogue Delaware put together a table based off these results that I think is very revealing.
Coons is rated as Very to Somewhat Conservative by 16% of the sample. Now, I have to think that those thinking that Coons is a conservative to any degree are pretty liberal themselves. Because I doubt a conservative would think Coons is a conservative. You would have to think that these liberals will be in Coons’ corner in the end. Coons is rated as very liberal by 9% of the population. Again, I am guessing that those thinking Coons is very liberal are conservatives, and they won’t be in Coons’ corner in the end. Coons is rated as a Moderate to Somewhat Liberal by 57% of the sample.
Castle is rated as Very to Somewhat Conservative by 54% of the sample, while only 30% see him as a Moderate. That is very interesting. Castle’s brand, and the reason he has always won in this Democratic state, is that was a mainstream Moderate. Looks like that brand is getting tattered by his constant obstruction and voting with the Party of No in the House. Castle is rated as somewhat to very liberal by 9% of the sample, and those people must be teabaggers.
O’Donnell is viewed as Very Conservative by 40% of the sample, with an additional 21% saying she is somewhat conservative. 21% have no clue. And only 18% consider her to be Moderate, Somewhat or Very Liberal. So O’Donnell seems to be pigeonholed into the conservative side of the spectrum, not an easy place to be in a general election in a blue state.