Delaware PPP Poll Results
PPP has just released their poll results for Delaware. There are a lot of results, so I’m sure this will lead to a lot of blog posts. Here’s the headline numbers:
DE-Sen
Public Policy Polling (PDF) for Daily Kos. 8/7-8. Registered voters. MoE 4% (No trendlines)
If the candidates for US Senate this fall were Republican Mike Castle and Democrat Chris Coons, who would you vote for?
All Dem GOP Ind
Chris Coons (D) 35 55 12 23
Mike Castle (R) 48 30 75 50
Undecided 17 15 13 27Chris Coons (D) 44 67 17 29
Christine O’Donnell (R) 37 16 67 40
Undecided 19 16 15 31Favorable/Unfavorable/Not Sure
Coons 31/31/39
Dem 42/25
GOP 19/40
Ind 23/30Castle 51/32/18
Dem 47/35
GOP 60/25
Ind 49/32
O’Donnell’s Favorable/Unfavorable/Not Sure %s: 23/34/44
The latest numbers are very similar to the Rasmussen numbers from the last two weeks. Castle has a solid lead, but remains under 50%. Coons is still largely unknown and has more room to grow.
DE-AL
Carney leads Rollins 48-31 and leads Urquhart 48-30. Carney leads either Rollins of Urquhart in every county.
Carney’s Favorable/unfavorable/Not Sure: 31/24/45
Rollins F/U/NS: 18/25/57
Urquhart F/U/NS: 15/20/65
None of the candidates have extremely high name recognition. Carney’s is the best, but it’s still below that of Chris Coons despite his stint as Lt. Governor.
Other favorable/unfavorable/not sure from the survey:
President Obama: 50/44/6
Senator Carper: 47/33/20
Senator Kaufman: 37/30/33
Governor Markell: 50/32/18
So the winner of the popularity contest is *drumroll* Mike Castle with +19% approval! Close behind is Governor Markell with +18, followed by Tom Carper with +14, Senator Kaufman with +7 and President Obama with +6.
Tags: Chris Coons, DE-AL, DE-Sen, Delaware, John Carney, Michele Rollins, Mike Castle
Darn! It doesn’t look they polled the Republican primaries. There’s probably enough numbers there to run a few theoretical scenarios though.
Carney must be pretty happy with these numbers and I’m sure the Rollins team is worried. Rollins clearly isn’t catching on yet and polls like a generic Republican. She has plenty of time & money to change this but she’s been in the race for months already. Plus, she has to survive the primary first.
That dratted 30% of Dems who would vote for Castle is worrisome.
Carper below 50% favorable – Wooo-hooooohh!!!
Oh – I guess it doesn’t quite work like that; he gets to split the “not sures.” What’s this “not sure” business?
Oh well.
It strikes me that the two establishment Republican candidates – Castle and Rollins – didn’t really want to run and were cajoled into it. They will fade even more in the stretch.
Anon is clueless, Castle will get a scare from O’Donnell but will cruise over Coons. Rollins is not going to win the primary.
Establishment says it all for Rollins, a goner.
For the Libs and dems, Kaufman is the only sane one in the bunch and he has the lowest rating.
That dratted 30% of Dems who would vote for Castle is worrisome.
Castle’s popularity combined with this 30% Dem crossover is a problem for Coons. However, if Coons can nationalize the race a bit more and tie Castle closer to the national GOP he may be able to get these voters to his side. Castle has to be worried that his support is soft, both from the Dem side and from the GOP side.
I am beginning to really think the Republicans’ best chance this year is a Castle/Urquhart combo. The moderates come out for Castle and the hardcore cons come out for Urquhart. Any other combo is much weaker.
BTW, you know that normal people aren’t thinking about the November election. That 30% Dem is what Coons will be targeting, but they are more worried about shopping for school right now.
Rollins will beat Glen “I need to be in a mental hospital” Urquhart.
There’s no way you call people who believe in separation of church and state “Nazis” and “liberals” and win an election anywhere other than a Klan meeting in Greenville. Urquhart’s Nazi video makes him unelectable, even with Republicans.
@UI: I don’t think they could poll the primary in this poll because the sample size would be pretty small since it’s a general election poll and they’d have to select out the results from the self-proclaimed GOP respondents. In other words, since you have to be enrolled in the party to vote, they would need to take a separate poll of just GOP respondents to get a reasonable sample size for the primary. But I’m happy enough seeing the general election results for the House.
And for my own personal opinion — which was formed before the “Nazi” video, so it could be out of date — is that Urquhart can and probably will beat Rollins. I met him… he’s a little rough on the campaign trail behavior, but at least he didn’t hide like Rollins (who literally was surrounded by aides so I couldn’t get close) and he was clearly trying very hard. He has a decent rapport with the winger base and clear enthusiasm.