The O’Donnell Boomlet
Yesterday we asked if Mike Castle was feeling some heat from Christine O’Donnell when there was suddenly a rash of Christine O’Donnell surging stories. There were stories from The Huffington Post, Daily Kos, Talking Points Memo, The Swing State Project and Michelle Malkin. The surge of interest came because the Tea Party Express announced they were going to spend a lot of money on Christine O’Donnell’s behalf (more than $0.5M), just like they did with Joe Miller in Alaska. PPP Polls looks at the comparison of Alaska to Delaware to see if Tea Partiers can pull off another miracle and take out Castle.
The arguments for:
-Lisa Murkowski’s poll numbers with Republicans back in January are far superior to where Mike Castle’s have ever been in our surveys. When we looked at Alaska in January Murkowski’s approval within her party was 77/13. By contrast our Delaware poll this month found Castle’s favorability with Republicans at only 60/25. It was 61/23 last December so it appears there’s a pretty solid quarter of the electorate ready to vote against him from day 1 that didn’t exist with Murkowski.
-The ideological composition of the Delaware and Alaska Republican electorates is actually almost identical. Intuitively you would expect Alaska’s to be far more conservative but our last Delaware poll found 58% of Republicans identifying as conservatives and 37% as moderates. Our Alaska ‘exit poll,’ which we’ll release tomorrow, found theirs at 59% conservatives and 37% moderates.
So according to PPP’s high level look there are enough conservative voters in Delaware to swing the election to O’Donnell. She just has to get them to the polls and frankly, convince them to vote for her.
The arguments against:
-Mike Castle has been elected statewide in Delaware 13 times. Lisa Murkowski had been once. It’s a lot easier to destroy someone’s image with 50%+1 of the primary electorate in a very short period of time when they’re relatively new to the scene than it is when they’ve been in statewide office for 30 years like Castle has.
-Time and money. We haven’t seen any public polling out of Delaware on the primary but it seems pretty safe to say Castle’s still up by a good amount and with only two weeks to go there’s not a lot of time to make that up. And it will probably take a much bigger investment to put a huge dent into Castle when that involves buying up Philadelphia tv time than it did in Alaska where a little money goes a long way.
-The lack of a Sarah Palin endorsement for O’Donnell. Our Alaska ‘exit poll’ actually found that Palin wasn’t as big a factor in Miller’s win as she seems to be getting credit for but there’s no doubt that would be a big help with at least some portion of the Republican electorate.
O’Donnell hasn’t had a big name endorsement and I don’t think Jim DeMint or Sarah Palin has that much influence in Delaware. The key to the Tea Party Express’s success in Alaska was a commercial where they portrayed Lisa Murkowski as a liberal.
I guess we’ll have to wait and see what kind of ad the Tea Party Express runs in Delaware. $0.5M won’t go as far in Delaware as in Alaska but an ad could get plenty of media coverage. There’s not much time to change things (the primary is in only 2 weeks) but there were a lot of undecideds in the last PPP Poll. PPP Polls also tweeted that they plan to poll Delaware again.
Tags: Christine O'Donnell, DE-Sen
Dialogue Delaware has Castle’s response:
well they’d better poll her finances and how’s she’s viewed – she has no policy statements and is they poll Western Sussex she will look good – but then again….
I hope she wins – the Coons can tank her – she is not viable on the main electoral stage and won’t hold up under scrutiny = the kind she will get if she beats Castle in the primary.
then again – there are her lies – about her education…go christine!!!
wow. I guess Castle really is feeling the heat from Chrissy’s conservative loins. Oops. I meant conservative lovers. Wait, wait, I meant conservative disciplinarians.
I can’t seem to abstain from the sexual inyourendo’s.
88% out of state v. 12% percent in state contributions? Isn’t that what the express is all about?
Too bad that an ad spend in the primaries trying to frame Castle as a “moderate” or “liberal” is likely to help him in the general.
Pull the lever for Christine – I’d love to run against the party of crazy.
When Delawareans say they are conservative…what sort of conservative are they id’ing themselves with? (honest question)
And what type of Conservative are we even talking about anymore?
dv, coincidentally Loudell just asked a very similar question of Urk and Rollins. The question was so good I captured it verbatim:
“For purposes of this Republican primary, part of the debate seems to have revolved around who is the true authentic conservative. In your quest to prove your self worthy, is there any issue championed by elements of the right that to you crosses the line, goes from middle America common sense conservatism, to something extreme, bizarre, that you would condemn?”
Rollins says focus on the economy, don’t worry about social issues. However she manages to hit a number of wingnut buzzwords on the economy. Urq goes into a story about his Scot ancestor coming to America. Loudell demands a follow-up because they didn’t answer the question, and goads them into an exchange on abortion. The question never really gets answered.
The wack jobs in the Democrat party created the far left swing which resulted in Obama, and the wack jobs in the Republican party will try and swing the political pendulum equally as far to the right. O,Donnell is just riding the coat tails of that swing. As long as the monkeys in the middle keep getting fooled by shiny objects we are all screwed. It’s called “SOS”,(shiny object syndrome) it’s akin to ADD, and is pretty much the root of our current problems.
The far left swing that resulted in Obama? You have a strange definition of “far.” Please elaborate on the “far” left policies put in place at the behest of Obama
Come on Geezer. You’re joking right?
Geezer, you are forgetting these people have their own news sources and are isolated from reality.
Anon, I check out news sources from both perspectives, that’s how I form my own opinions. I guess you don’t agree with my point of view, but I guess I’m not surprised being that some contributors on this website are perfect examples of what I’m talking about.
I check out news sources from both perspectives
Good, then you should have no problem answering Geezer’s point. What are some of the milestones in this “leftist swing” that you claim resulted in Obama? And what is so left about Obama?
Not joking at all. Please tell me the “far left” positions you’re talking about.
If anything Obama has disapointed the left. However Crazy Chrissie will not disapoint the schizophrenic right wing wacko fringe:)
“Urq goes into a story about his Scot ancestor coming to America”
Ya mean he didn;t go into the Jewish Grandfather spheel – oh that’s right Sam Wilson would have a cow about that……..
and then he would loose the Sussex vote
cherry picking ancestors – too funny
I’m talking about the far left swing of the political pendulum inspired by the liberal left, sparked off by the fact that the pendulum had previously swung to the right, as pendulums do. Now, it appears that the pendulum is in full swing mode back to the opposite side helped along, or inspired by the political right.
Yes, I know what you’re talking about in general. I’m disputing that Obama represents a swing to the “far” left.
you were not watching the political pendulum. it NEVER got more than a couple clicks past the middle and frankly it won’t going right either. Nothing energizes an activist like minority status, either way.
Pretty typical. Obama is far left but he can’t name anything that is far left. It’s just what Limbaugh says!
An all encompassing growth in government in order to facilitate an agenda biased towards redistribution of wealth, and a so called green agenda based on an unproven theory. This, in my opinion, is representative of a leftist.
The specifics are too numerous to mention, and you know it.
The specifics are too numerous to mention
*guffaw*
an agenda biased towards redistribution of wealth,
You didn’t complain when wealth was being redistributed upward. Now the wealthy parasites have damn near killed their middle-class hosts.
a so called green agenda based on an unproven theory.
Dependence on foreign oil is a proven threat to national security recognized by both sides.
Oh, I know what you mean, “far left”. Like the kind of guy who would open diplomatic relations with communist counties, create wage and price controls, interfering with the free market, enact title IX to create affirmative action for women, endorse the Clean Air Act, and create the EPA. TOTALLY far far left, like that.
What was I hearing about a pendulum?
An all encompassing growth in government in order to facilitate an agenda biased towards redistribution of wealth
Confused – George W. Bush?
Also, please give me the name of one Democrat who has said the want to grow government. The people that are proposing government growth are the ones who want the government to check everyone’s immigration papers.
” You didn’t complain when wealth was being redistributed upward. ”
anon, how can a zero sum be redistributed to a positive sum ? I don’t get it.
So called green energy will not affect our dealings in foreign oil in the foreseeable future.
This reminds me of the old joke about a roadhouse that played both kinds of music… Country and Western!
anon, how can a zero sum be redistributed to a positive sum ? I don’t get it.
FBH, showing his/her deep knowledge of how taxation works.
Yes UI , all encompassing government applies to both fringes. That’s my whole point.
Fightinblue,
Your “all encompassing” posts are so all encompassing that they’re meaningless.
Your “whole point” is on the top of your head.
Again, I challenge you to name someone on the left who has proposed all-encompassing government, and what that proposal was.
“Both sides do it” is a lazy argument.
Country and Western!
Or Rob Reiner’s joke about the Bush Administration’s idea of diversity – having Cabinet secretaries from two different oil companies.
If working people produce value, and that value ends up as cash in a wealthy person’s pocket, that is redistribution upward.
Every time a middle class person has their house seized by a bank, or sells their 401(k) holdings for pennies on the dollar, that is redistribution upward.
Apart from the basic labor/capital relationship, Republican policy has been promoting or at least allowing this kind of asset-stripping to go on for decades. That is why the middle class is not accumulating wealth.
It’s been going on for a while.
FBH : “An all encompassing growth in government in order to facilitate an agenda biased towards redistribution of wealth, and a so called green agenda based on an unproven theory. This, in my opinion, is representative of a leftist.”
Too numerous to mention??? Can you name 5? Can you name 1??
Can you name the President that signed Title IX, started the EPA and recognized China???
Just askin’????
Barack Obomba has apparently instituted a secret policy of targeting American citizens for assassinations. You can’t get a much better example of an “all-encompassing government” than that.
However, I don’t view Obomba as being on the left, either.
OK, UI Nancy Pelosi health care proposals. How about Barney Frank ,Chris Dodd, and others mandating that loans be given to people that could never pay them back to begin with.
fightin,
The “far left” healthcare proposal that mandates purchase of a profitable and defective product from a “far left” health insurance corporation.
Enriching corporations at the expense of the citizen, is your idea of “far left”?
GMAFB
90% of the Health care plan that was enacted was supported by Republicans under Bush 43. It was demonized under Obama.
OK, UI Nancy Pelosi health care proposals. How about Barney Frank ,Chris Dodd, and others mandating that loans be given to people that could never pay them back to begin with
Now right here is the proof you are getting your information from right-wing outlets. You just can’t break out of their vocabulary and their revised history.
What is this “mandate” of Frank and Dodd? What law ever said banks had to loan to people who couldn’t pay them back? Because that is your claim, right?
Nancy Pelosi health care proposals? Are you talking about the House health care bill that included a weak public option, which died in the Senate, arguably because Obama refused to get behind it? Is that your evidence of a “shift to the left” that produced Obama?
“Barack Obomba has apparently instituted a secret policy of targeting American citizens for assassinations. You can’t get a much better example of an “all-encompassing government” than that.
However, I don’t view Obomba as being on the left, either.”
care to offer proof, or at the very least a link to a conspiracy theory site?
I think FBH drew the short straw and has been assigned to keep all us Delaware liberals tied up at our keyboards, while all the wingnuts go out doing door-knocking and lit drops for O’Donnell, Urquhart, and Bonini.
How about Barney Frank ,Chris Dodd, and others mandating that loans be given to people that could never pay them back to begin with.
Yes, please tell us which bill this was. It sounds like you’re echoing Limbaugh criticism of the CRA, which does no such thing. The financial crisis was caused by the deregulatory orgy of the W years. None of the banks that failed were subject to the CRA, which actually mandated loans that people could pay back. The banks themselves wanted to loan to people who couldn’t pay (they are the ones who came up with NINA loans and other nonsense) because they thought they had no risk and a lot of them like Goldman were selling these things while betting on them to fail.
None of the things you mention, FBH, have much to do with Obama. He offered no health care plan of his own. The bailouts were started as the Bush presidency wound down, and Obama merely continued them. He is keeping 50,000 troops in Iraq, has kept the warrantless wiretapping and suspension of habeas corpus for “terrorism” suspects begun by Bush, declared that he can call for assassination of at least one American citizen … I can go on and on with things he has done that are nowhere near the “far” left. Even the stimulus spending was less than some well-within-the-mainstream economists recommended, and so comes nowhere near representing a “far” left position.
That’s what I’m talking about. Now, what are you talking about again?
Of course he thinks Obama is left. Republicans keep carving out new territory on the right, even as we speak.
Republican elected officials are proposing to end Medicare and Medicaid, privatize Social Security, and eliminate all business and investment taxes. Republican candidates are proposing to repeal bedrock Constitutional amendments, and discover new unintended meanings in other amendments.
When you stand there, everybody else is far to your left.
Oh my, I’m actually embarrassed for FBH.
Thank you, jpconnorjr. I was hoping someone would notice. 😉
fannie mae and freddie mac mortgage funding practices helped create the subprime mortgage debacle, and these practices were mandated by Dodd , and Frank who are the chairman of the house and senate banking committees.
“Targeted Killing: Death Without Due Process”
“But earlier this year, the Obama administration asserted it has the authority to carry out “targeted killings” of U.S. citizens outside armed conflict zones. ”
But I am sure that since this is Obomba, it is all well and good with you, a.price.
http://www.aclu.org/blog/national-security/targeted-killing-death-without-due-process
Thanks for telling us what Fox thinks FBH. Now please go find a respected economist who will back up your contention.
Wrong again. The vast majority of such mortgages were written by private companies, not Fannie or Freddie. The private companies’ complaint was that Fannie and Freddie were backed by taxpayers. As it turned out, so were the private companies. For someone who “thinks for himself,” you’re doing a marvelous job of not straying an inch from the Conserviblican talking points.
My main point and original post was about the fringe wack jobs controlling the swing of the political pendulum. Why are all of you so obsessed with denying Obamas leftist agenda. The whole reason for the swing back to the right is mostly due to his being such a lefty.
Hey Geezer, don’t take my word for it. Just Google fannie and freddie mortgage crisis, and begin reading.
Geezer, it’s on the internet, it must be true!
Please do tell us about Obama’s agenda to impose sharia law on the whole world. 52% of Republicans believe it! I’ll bet they googled it on the internet.
53 comments and I am the first to say, Castle defeats O’Donnell in a walk.
Look at the numbers.
Fightinbluehen didn’t do very well in this cock fight.
sorry man, you got shredded.
you gotta bring more to the table than this dude.
FAR LEFT =’s what?
tell us what far left is too you…how Delaware has swung that way…
give examples.
or beat it and head over to NRO where they clap at your idiocy
FHB read it in a viral email , so it must be true. Salaam everybody.
I stand by my original post, and I stand by my opinion that Obama is so far to the left, that your next Presidential candidate, Hillary Clinton, can’t even see him.
FBH, what exactly is far left about Obama’s agenda. his “genocidal” health care bill was pretty much word-for word a reamke of…… BOB DOLE’S ideas. Now, not that i would expect a Drusge Report Parrot like yourself to know who Bob Dole is, but he is a republican. In fact, most of what he has done has pissed off the “far left” so much that they have jumped off the wagon (some did it jan 21 2009!)
This guy cant win. He is faced with opposition from one side that is fueled by lies, hate, and a genuine desire to hurt the country for political gain….. on the other side he has reactionary “supporters” who refuse to see the real problem (republicans) and demand he act like a left wing GWB. It will be really sad when Mitt Romney is president, we are BACK in Iraq, at war with Iran and EVERYONE will blame the black guy.
But back to FBH and his talking point,
the fact is, you cannot point to one single thing Obama has done or is trying to do to prove your paranoid ranting. You base your entire argument on “what he might do” and “what he REALLY means”.
“I stand by my original post, and I stand by my opinion that Obama is so far to the left, that your next Presidential candidate, Hillary Clinton, can’t even see him.”
stand by your position all you want, do you have any desire to defend it with facts, or even “something you heard”?
or are you gonna pull a Glenn Beck and; make a statement, call someone a racist when they question the truthfulness of that statement, profit.
Jeez, I’m center-left by most measures, and Obama isn’t left enough for me.
what was your original post that gave examples please. I could have missed it and the examples
UI, I’d rather get my info from the internet, than have it spoon fed to me by Kieth Olbermann and Rachel Maddow.
I don’t know what is worse. That the retarded son of a known loser can hijack a thread so easily with his wingnut drivel – or that otherwise reasonable people take the bait so easily?
Still no examples demonstrating how Obama is far left, FBH.
UI, I’d rather get my info from the internet, than have it spoon fed to me by Kieth Olbermann and Rachel Maddow.
I’m reeling from your well-written, well-researched and logical comments.
hehehehehe jason said retard
i’m offended you called me reasonable
Jason: “I don’t know what is worse. That the retarded son of a known loser can hijack a thread so easily with his wingnut drivel – or that otherwise reasonable people take the bait so easily?”
so true on THEIR blogs OUR dissenting opinions would be taken down or banned:) On HERE could we just put him in the IDIOT category and ignore him/her?
Why people feel the need to engage these fuckwits is beyond me.
OK, I did what you proposed. Here’s the conclusion from the very first article that appears:
“I very much agree with Krugman that the most egregious problems were not caused by anything Fannie or Freddie themselves did. But I disagree that their actions played no role in causing the underlying problem we face today.”
IN other words, they played some role, but were not the only cause of the problem. But when you listen to the right, they never mention anything but Fannie, Freddie and the Democrats you name — who just happen to be the Democrats who followed the thinking of Republicans on these issues. Yet you never hear the sources we suspect you of tapping into say any of that.
Whether you listen to RushSeanGlenn or not, you’re getting your basic data from the same limited sources they are — mostly “think tanks” underwritten by people like the Koch brothers (anti-global warming and libertarian) and Richard Mellon Scaife (every crackpot right-wing idea out there, up to and including Vince Foster was murdered by the Clintons). If you think “conservative principles” are anything but one tool in a toolbox, you’re not thinking, you’re believing. Faith-based politics isn’t much practiced here.
“Why people feel the need to engage these fuckwits is beyond me.”
Because the boss takes a dim view of physical masturbation in the workplace. So I settle for the intellectual sort.
“The wack jobs in the Democrat party created the far left swing which resulted in Obama, and the wack jobs in the Republican party will try and swing the political pendulum equally as far to the right. O,Donnell is just riding the coat tails of that swing. As long as the monkeys in the middle keep getting fooled by shiny objects we are all screwed. It’s called “SOS”,(shiny object syndrome) it’s akin to ADD, and is pretty much the root of our current problems.”
All this bull shit over one post.
FBH, Obama’s problem is dishonesty, timidity, incompetence, and catering to the right wing. He is hardly on the “far left.” In fact, he hates the left.
Uh oh, Jason predicts a Castle win. We all know what that portends.
If Obama were even part way left of center, Republican candidates would be going around right now explaining to unemployed, uninsured voters why they want to repeal public option health care. They would be routed in November.
My point actually had to do with Christine ODonnell and how the exremities within each party drive and prosper from the swinging political pendulum. I guess if you don’t believe Obama is far left then the point is fucked.
“if you accept reality and understand Obama is not far left, than Drudge Talking Points will not work on you”
FBH, stop all of a sudden acting like you are some kind of centrist. whether you mean it or not, every single opinion you’ve ever tried to form here has been right in line with Saint Sarah and Brother Glenn. Embrace what you are…. let us be ashamed for you.
your point is fucked b/c you don’t have an example to back up your assessment of what is is “far left”. The onus is on you to give an example of “far left”
you made a point, but it was wrong and made no sense. the point is fucked b/c you fucked it up
FBH,
Heed the FIRST RULE OF HOLES:
When you’re in a hole, stop digging.
Well, FBH has a nugget of an idea – we’re definitely seeing a rightwing backlash. It’s not related to reality, it’s pretty much divorced from it. It has to do with the terrible economy & rightwing demagogues taking advantage of general dissatisfaction. Once you dive into the numbers almost all of Obama’s poor ratings come from white southerners (though he’s lost with every group because of the continuing economic problems).
UI, i understand and admire your inherent needs to be kind… something most of the rest of us lack. But dont encourage FBH. any point it might have made is accidental. 🙂
I was going to say it was nice of FBH to bring all of our other commenters together to find common ground.
we should make aug31 “FBH depreciation day”
Even delacrat joined in to refute FBH. And A1 was so focused on FBH, he even spelled the President’s name correctly.
it’s a FBH Depreciation Day miracle!
Even though the statistics about conservatives/moderates are alike between Alaska and Delaware, Alaska is a far different state than Delaware. Delaware where everybody knows your name and there at most two degrees of separation between everyone who lives here. Of course, the O’Donnell whackjobs are out in full force with their lying their ass off campaign. With that being said, all bets are off that Castle will win.
Mike Castle really wants me to read this link, since he tweeted it.
In other Tea Party Express news, they are providing some campaign staff to O’Donnel
Just saw on Twitter, Pat Boone endorsed Glen Urquhart.
Poor Mike Castle. He thinks Tbaz can be swayed by mere facts.
Prepare for the Castle onslaught as he begins to unleash his war chest–the road signs have already sprung up, next the billboards, then radio and TV–by November the state will drop the “New” in New Castle County to honor his annointment to the senate as the masses of sheep overlook the most qualified opponent he arguably has ever had in Chris Coons and punch the button next to his name without really considering his record or what he will do for Delawareans over the next 4 years…*Sigh*
Ha ha ha ha, he thinks the health care proposals are “far left”. FBH, a mainstream left wing proposal would be suggesting that we institute a system that works, like the one in Sweden, Denmark, or France. The whole subsidy idea is pure centrist bullshit.
But the BEST part is how he doesn’t even know how to describe it, so he just calls it the “Nancy Pelosi Health Care Reform”, and then starts listing off a bunch of names. He obviously doesn’t know what a liberal is, but he’s been told who is one, and that’s all he’s really got to on.