Okay. I get accused of wanting a pony. Of being down on Obama, because this is not the Bobby Kennedy presidency that he suggested it was going to be back in 2008. People say that I’m ignoring all the accomplishments and stomping my little feet simple because Obama is not the “man the barricades” Democratic champion of the disenfranchised or even the Joe Montana of the hapless Democratic 49ers.
All true. I’m a baby. I pout when I feel cheated. Guilty as charged. But c’mon. Can people who don’t care about the politics of the Presidency but fixate on the legislation, allow that Obama has been terrible at leading the Democratic Party? Can we all agree that Obama (yes Obama not Congressional Republicans) squandered a real mandate and turned last year’s enthusiasm gap into this year’s enthusiasm canyon?
If you can’t admit that, try reading this Steve Singiser diary at kos, and allow reality to intrude:
PPP, as a matter of clarifying their samples, asks a question that few pollsters ask, but is incredibly useful: they ask respondents for their 2008 presidential preference.
As a result, we are able to note that one of the most consistent characteristics of the samples of PPP polls in this cycle is an electorate that was far less pro-Obama than 2008.
And, as Tom Jensen spelled out earlier this week:
If the folks planning to turn out this year matched the 2008 electorate:
*Alex Sink running for Governor in Florida and Alexi Giannoulias running for the Senate in Illinois would have double digit leads.
*Elaine Marshall running for Senate in North Carolina and Pat Quinn running for Governor in Illinois would have small leads instead of trailing.
*Ted Strickland running for Governor in Ohio, Lee Fisher running for Senate in Ohio, Joe Sestak running for Senate in Pennsylvania, and Robin Carnahan running for Senate in Missouri would all be within three points rather than trailing by 7-10 as they do now.
This year isn’t getting away from the Democrats because voters are moving toward the Republicans en masse. But the enthusiasm gap is turning races that would otherwise be lean Democratic into toss ups, turning toss ups into leaning Republican, and turning leaning Republican into solid Republican.
When I say , “Barack Obama doesn’t seem to give a fuck about the Republicans wining legislative majorities,” What I mean is, Barack Obama doesn’t seem to give a fuck about the Republicans winning legislative majorities.