Primary Prediction Thread
Tomorrow is the long-awaited primary day. We’ll find out who will be their parties representatives in the November elections, less than 60 days away. Delaware has some hot and nasty primaries that are getting national attention.
So, you’ve been paying attention. Who’s going to win tomorrow? Let’s turn this into a contest. The person who predicts the most winners correctly will get a copy of Markos Moulitsas’s American Taliban. The tiebreaker question will be to give the spread of the Castle-O’Donnell primary.
Here are the races:
Republican Primaries
U.S. Senate Mike Castle vs. Christine O’Donnell
U.S. House of Representatives Michele Rollins, Glen Urquhart, Rose Izzo
State Senate District 19 Joe Booth vs. Eric Bodenweiser
State Representative District 9 John Marino vs. Anthony Mirto
State Representative District 29 George Phillips vs. Lincoln Willis
State Representative District 31 Ron Smith vs. Ron Poliquin
State Representative District 33 Harold Peterman vs. Steven Rust
New Castle County Council District 3 Janet Kilpatrick vs. Mike Protack
New Castle County Sheriff Bill Hart vs. Joseph O’Leary
Democratic Primaries
State Treasurer Velda Jones-Potter vs. Chip Flowers
State Auditor Richard Korn vs. Ken Matlusky
State Senate District 20 George Bunting vs. Perry Mitchell
State Representative District 2 Hazel Plant vs. Stephanie Bolden
State Representative District 3 Robert Bovell vs. Helene Keeley
State Representative District 8 Quinton Johnson vs. Valerie Jones-Rabb
State Representative District 9 Richard Griffiths vs. Rebecca Walker
State Representative District 10 Kenneth Dargis vs. Dennis E. Williams
State Representative District 24 Kay Wilde Gallogly vs. Ed Osienski
State Representative District 29 Earl Jaques vs. James Maravelias
New Castle County Sheriff Trinidad Navarro vs. Mike Walsh
Sussex County Recorder of Deeds John Brady vs. Alma Roach
Tags: Delaware, Election 2010, Primaries
Castle 50 Odonnell. 49. I hope the count goes late into the night.
Urkle 60. Rollins 39.
I’ll arrange a dead drop like a Russian spy for commenters who want to remain really anonymous.
My predictions:
U.S. Senate Castle 52-48
U.S. House of Representatives Urquhart
State Senate District 19 Booth
State Representative District 9 Mirto
State Representative District 29 Phillips
State Representative District 31 Smith
State Representative District 33 Rust
New Castle County Council District 3 Kilpatrick
New Castle County Sheriff Hart
State Treasurer Flowers
State Auditor Korn
State Senate District 20 Bunting
State Representative District 2 Plant
State Representative District 3 Keeley
State Representative District 8 Johnson
State Representative District 9 Walker
State Representative District 10 Williams
State Representative District 24 Gallogly
State Representative District 29 Jaques
New Castle County Sheriff Navarro
Sussex County Recorder of Deeds Brady
FWIW I put this up BEFORE the poll came out, you can look it up:)
Castle 51 Crazy Chrissie 49
Rollins 53 Urq 48
Velda 50.5 chip 49.5
Walsh 53 Navarro 47
Brady 52 Alma whatsername 48 Ss ROD.
Polling for primaraies is notoriously innacurate. Thats my story I’m sticking to it.
GOP Senate – Christine O’Whackamole 51%, Man-Pants Castle 49%
GOP House – Urkel – 54%, Miss Jamaica 1963 46%, Rose Izzo – 3 votes
GOP Senate 19 – Booth 56%, St. Bodie Girl 44%
Dem Treasurer – Flowers 55%, Jones-Potter 45%
Dem Auditor – Korn 57%, Matlusky 43%
Dem Senate 20 – Bunting 79%, Mitchell 21%
SC Recorder of Deeds – Brady 51%, Roach 49%
Here are the races:
Republican Primaries
U.S. Senate Mike Castle
U.S. House of Representatives Glen Urquhart
State Senate District 19 Joe Booth
State Representative District 9 John Marino
State Representative District 29 Lincoln Willis
State Representative District 31 Ron Poliquin
State Representative District 33 Harold Peterman
New Castle County Council District 3 Mike Protack
New Castle County Sheriff Bill Hart
Democratic Primaries
State Treasurer Chip Flowers
State Auditor Ken Matlusky
State Senate District 20 George Bunting
State Representative District 2 Hazel Plant
State Representative District 3 Helene Keeley
State Representative District 8 Quinton Johnson State Representative District 9 Rebecca Walker
State Representative District 10 Dennis E. Williams
State Representative District 24 Kay Wilde Gallogly
State Representative District 29 Earl Jaques
New Castle County Sheriff Trinidad Navarro
U.S. Senate O’Donnell 51
U.S. House of Representatives Urquhart 54
State Senate District 19 Bodenweiser 52
State Representative District 29 Willis
State Representative District 31 Poliquin
State Representative District 33 Peterman
State Treasurer Flowers
State Auditor Matlusky 54
State Senate District 20 Bunting 72
New Castle County Sheriff Navarro
Sussex County Recorder of Deeds Roach
State Treasurer Flowers 56%
State Auditor Richard Korn 55%
State Representative District 2 Hazel Plant
State Representative District 3 Helene Keeley
State Representative District 10 Dennis E. Williams
New Castle County Sheriff Mike Walsh 54%
U.S. Senate Mike Castle 53%
U.S. House of Representatives Urquhart 52%
One thing to note is that Brady will be on the ballot in November for Recorder of Deeds as the WFP candidate.
Brady set that up because he knew he was going to lose the Dem primary. He hasn’t run a campaign at all, while Roach has tons of support among the Democratic hierarchy and Georgetown attorney circles.
Citing “Mental Anguish,” Christine O’Donnell Sought $6.9 Million in Gender Discrimination Lawsuit Against Conservative Group
http://www.weeklystandard.com/ blogs/citing-mental-anguish- christine-odonnell-sought-69- million-gender-discrimination- lawsuit-again
I don’t like doing the numbers game so much, but this has been one of the more interesting political weekends and I’m going to throw out what I think might go down:
Going into the weekend, I thought there was no chance that Christine O’Donnell could beat Mike Castle. This morning, I won’t be surprised if she eeks this out. I think she’ll win by 2-5 points and this is why:
– There is a painfully obvious enthusiasm gap between Castle and O’Donnell’s supporters. That’s what primaries are all about.
– Yes, everyone likes Mike Castle, but Castle’s operation has relied on this for far too long. In short, they have no ground game. Campaigns are won and lost on the field and O’Donnell is winning that battle. Especially in the churches up and down the state, there’s a more sophisticated GOTV organization that she is being given credit for. Castle’s people, God bless them, have never had to run a real campaign for him and the Delaware GOP at large is barely a legitimate political organization.
– The interviews from Bill Lee, Don Mell, and the like make me think Castle has some internal polling (and has had for the past few weeks) that scare them.
– I don’t get the sense that Castle really wants to win. In fact, I don’t think he ever really wanted to run in the first place. His early interviews said as much and it wasn’t until the GOP national establishment started putting the pressure on, that he took the dive.
The larger questions/thoughts for me right now…
1) If Castle or O’Donnell loses, will either of them launch a third party challenge? I highly doubt Castle will, but O’Donnell likely would… what the hell else will she do?
2) What will the state of the Republican party organization be in Delaware, when they’ve spent the last two weeks gutting their top of the ballot candidate? Will Tom Ross resign? Is this the last dying breaths of the Delaware GOP as we have known them? It seems to be they will be a regional party with a few seats in Western Sussex county.
3) While I would not vote for Mike Castle in a general election, I think it’s sad that a man who has been a pretty decent public servant for nearly his entire life – will end his career in this way. I wish he would have just not run, because this is truly sad to watch.
As for Rollins…. the woman had no business running for any office in Delaware. She’s essentially a resident of Jamaica and this was nothing but a glamour run to put another feather in her cap. She’ll be crying into her oysters at Vicmead this year.
“If Castle or O’Donnell loses, will either of them launch a third party challenge? I highly doubt Castle will, but O’Donnell likely would… what the hell else will she do?”
For crying out LOUD … it really hurts to see intelligent people talk about this stuff.
It is IMPOSSIBLE, IMPOSSIBLE, IMPOSSIBLE in Delaware for rimary losers to wage a ballot campaign in November. The BEST they can do is fight a write-in campaign, as Christine did in 2006.
The deadline has long since passed for parties to get anyone on the ballot.
U.S. Senate Castle 54
U.S. House of Representatives Urquhart 54
State Senate District 19 Booth 56
County Council Kilpatrick 55
State Treasurer Flowers 55
State Auditor Matlusky 52
State Senate District 20 Bunting 67
New Castle County Sheriff Navarro 50.5
All sitting legislators in Wilmington will win by 20%
@anon
I meant a write-in campaign, not third party challenge. Sorry. Hands moved faster than my head.
i tried to edid and I was a big #fail! can i get a mulligan?
Castle 55 O’Donnell 45. Sticking with it.
Republican Primaries
U.S. Senate Mike Castle vs. Christine O’Donnell * Castle 51
U.S. House of Representatives Michele Rollins, Glen Urquhart, Rose Izzo *Rollins 53
State Senate District 19 Joe Booth vs. Eric Bodenweiser * Booth 60
State Representative District 9 John Marino vs. Anthony Mirto Marino no#
State Representative District 29 George Phillips vs. Lincoln Willis Phillips no #
State Representative District 31 Ron Smith vs. Ron Poliquin *Smith 56
State Representative District 33 Harold Peterman vs. Steven Rust * Peterman no #
New Castle County Council District 3 Janet Kilpatrick vs. Mike Protack * PROTACK FINALLY 53
New Castle County Sheriff Bill Hart vs. Joseph O’Leary * Hart no #
Democratic Primaries
State Treasurer Velda Jones-Potter vs. Chip Flowers *Velda 50.5
State Auditor Richard Korn vs. Ken Matlusky *Korn 54
State Senate District 20 George Bunting vs. Perry Mitchell* Bunting 65
State Representative District 2 Hazel Plant vs. Stephanie Bolden * Hazel 52
State Representative District 3 Robert Bovell vs. Helene Keeley *Keeley 56
State Representative District 8 Quinton Johnson vs. Valerie Jones-Rabb *Brocalli Raab no#
State Representative District 9 Richard Griffiths vs. Rebecca Walker * Walker no #
State Representative District 10 Kenneth Dargis vs. Dennis E. Williams *Williams 53
State Representative District 24 Kay Wilde Gallogly vs. Ed Osienski Osienski no#
State Representative District 29 Earl Jaques vs. James Maravelias * Jaques in z box no #
New Castle County Sheriff Trinidad Navarro vs. Mike Walsh Walsh 54
Sussex County Recorder of Deeds John Brady vs. Alma Roach
*the Big guy Brady 51
Delaware GOP=EPIC FAIL
UI, the Jaques/Maravelias race is District 27.
I saw the debate but still can’t decide Walsh vs. Navarro. Anybody have any thoughts here?
If Navarro is a stinker then we’ll have him around for a while. Whereas we will have opportunities to replace Walsh sooner.
I agree with UI’s (8:47)predictions with some reservations about Brady’s chances.
I don’t believe the below candidates are the BEST choice, only that they WILL win:
Republican Primaries
US Senate – CASTLE
US House of Representatives – ROLLINS
State Senate District 19 – BOOTH
State Representative District 9 – MARINO
State Representative District 29 – PHILLIPS
Republican Primaries – Cont.
State Representative District 31 – POLIQUIN
State Representative District 33 – PETERMAN
New Castle County District 3 – KILPATRICK
New Castle County Sheriff – O’LEARY
Democratic Primaries
State Treasurer – FLOWERS
State Auditor – KORN
State Senate District 20 – BUNTING
State Representative District 2 – PLANT
State Representative District 3 – KEELEY
State Representative District 8 – JOHNSON
State Representative District 9 – WALKER
State Representative District 10 – WILLIAMS
State Representative District 24 – OSIENSKI
State Representative District 29 – MARAVELIAS
New Castle County Sheriff – NAVARRO
Sussex County Recorder of Deeds – BRADY
Btw, if I win, I’ll burn Markos’ book 😉
I pick Castle to win by ten %(maybe more):
http://politicsbythenumbersmostlydelaware.blogspot.com/2010/08/geography-of-recent-registrants-may.html
and doubt Protack is going to win,but don’t have % guess:
http://politicsbythenumbersmostlydelaware.blogspot.com/2010/08/protack-might-not-want-to-pin-primary.html
If John Tobin agrees with me I feel that I am in good company, and more secure in my pessimistic point of view on Delaware’s stranglehold by the establishment.
US Senate – O’Donnell 52%, Castle 48%
US Rep – Urq. 56%, Rollins 44%
State Treas. – Flowers 53%, Jones-Potter 47%
Auditor – Matlusky 57%, Korn 43%
Sussex Recorder – Roach 51%, Brady 49%
I don’t particularly care about the others because they don’t affect me. LOL. The rest are just guesses, though I think it’s going to be a big day for the tea party folks. I don’t see the Repubs putting establishment candidates in when the anti-establishment feeling is so strong. Just a hunch though. I think Flowers will benefit from the negative press over Jones-Potter’s side work. Auditor is truly a guess, but I’ve only receied info from Matlusky, so I figure others may be in the same boat. Dem primary voters won’t trust a Republican-turn-Democrat over a Democrat who has ran a solid campaign down this way.
Lower Democratic Turnout vs. last primary.
Higher Republican Turnout vs. last primary.
Castle 51-52 O’Donnell 48-49
TNJ Headlines you won’t see:
Castle Tea Bags Tea Party Insurgent
Castle Crushes Christine
(If he loses, TNJ Headline: WTF? End of Days Nigh.)
Urqhart 49 Rollins 46 and 4% write in O’Donnell out of habit
The over/under on Izzo is 1100 votes. I’ll take the under. takers?
Korn 55 Matlusky 45 Endorsement carries
Velda 51 Chip 49 Endorsement carries
Walsh 53 Navarro 47. Watch for special or rematch.
GOP: Hart, more signs=more money. Who’s the opponent?
Protack 52 Kirkpatrick 48 Name Recognition… Finally
Bunting, more signs, again.
Keeley 58 Bovell 42 Perenial Candidate, nothing new under the sun.
Boulden 50.2 Plant 49.8 Tossup.
If Boulden loses, watch for the special or a rematch.
I don’t dare venture into the rest of the state.
Favorite Sign Combo: Plant + Korn. Near the Waterworks/ WPD stables.
Anyone want to hang out at the Jackson Inn tomorrow night?
I think most of us will be at the DelDems primary watch party at Timothy’s on the Riverfront tomorrow.
But Timothy’s is nowhere near GOP HQ! I was looking for some Schadenfruede.
If Castle bites the big one, you’ll be able to hear the Chateaux Country whaling and gnashing of teeth at Timothy’s
U.S. Senate Christine O’Donnell (54) over Castle (46)
U.S. House of Representatives Glen Urquhart over Michele Rollins and Rose Izzo
State Senate District 19 Joe Booth over Eric Bodenweiser
State Representative District 9 John Marino over Anthony Mirto
State Representative District 29 Lincoln Willis over George Phillips
State Representative District 31 Ron Smith over Ron Poliquin
State Representative District 33 Harold Peterman over Steven Rust
New Castle County Council District 3 Mike Protack over Janet Kilpatrick
New Castle County Sheriff Bill Hart vs. Joseph O’Leary
Democratic Primaries
State Treasurer Flowers over the woman scamming the state
State Auditor Ken Matlusky over Richard Korn
State Senate District 20 George Bunting over Perry Mitchell
State Representative District 2 Stephanie Bolden over Hazel Plant
State Representative District 3 Robert Bovell over Helene Keeley
State Representative District 8 Valerie Jones-Rabb over Quinton Johnson
State Representative District 9 Richard Griffiths over Rebecca Walker
State Representative District 10 Dennis E. Williams over Kenneth Dargis
State Representative District 24 Kay Wilde Gallogly over Ed Osienski
State Representative District 29 James Maravelias over Earl Jaques
New Castle County Sheriff Trinidad Navarro over Mike Walsh
Sussex County Recorder of Deeds John Brady over Alma Roac
My picks:
Crazy Christine 55-45 over Metamucil Mike Man-Pants
Urquhart 59-41 over Rollins
Booth 52-48 over St. Bodie Girl
Kilpatrick 55-45 over Prozac
Marino
Willis
Poliquin
Peterman
Hart
Jones-Potter over Flowers
Korn over Matlusky
Navarro over Walsh
Bunting
Plant
Keeley
Johnson
Walker
Williams
Osienski
Jaques
Roach
Hate to go against John Tobin on Castle/O’Donnell as John’s as canny as they come, but I’m hard-pressed to see any momentum on Castle’s side.
Castle 58
Rollins 56
Jaques
Walker 51
Marino–handily
Q. Johnson–handily
Navarro
Protack 52
This is as far off the ledge I’m going….see ya tomorrow night:)!!!
Wait.. Protack is actually running for something? I thought y’all threw that in as a joke.
I can’t do the whole list. But I’m voting Christine and Glen will win their respective races. There’s a stirring in the religious right, and they’ll turn out. Velda by a slim margin, and Navarro, by more. Not sure about auditor. I’ll be watching 19 and both 9’s with interest.
Castle 58
Rollins 49
Jaques 52
Walker 51
Kilpatrick 54
Marino 56
Q. Johnson 53
Navarro 48
Booth 60
Osienski 58